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Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

theatlantic.com

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Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#51

Post by cromulent »

Svip wrote: post #29
cromulent wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

+1 means that the packed snow is going to melt on top and then probably re-freeze, making everything super slippery. So I need to remove as much snow from the paths as possible and spread sand, and remind the kids to be careful. -3 means relax.

The temperatures given are usually air temperatures. If the ground is warm enough -- which it is usually is in the cities -- then it doesn't really matter, the snow will melt in both cases.

Not here mate, not in one day that's for sure.

Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#52

Post by msravi »

Anyone who is a weather buff should try meteogram (https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.cloud3squa...). You can plot a huge host of parameters (temperature, dew point, pressure, humidity, precipitation, wind speed/direction, sun/moon azimuth/elevation, etc.) over time, and the insights are very revealing. You can also choose multiple data sources, and it even has options to display METAR data.

Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#53

Post by galfarragem »

Best forecasts that I know (accurate enough to people come and ask me): https://www.windguru.cz/

Notes:

- Only the GFS27KM is reliable on free version and within next 48-72h.

- Temperatures are always conservative on extremes. When it says 37C, expect 40C. When 2C expect 0C.

Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#54

Post by bsbechtel »

I only see forecast errors for hurricanes listed as the cited data. Maybe I missed the other cited sources for data measuring forecast accuracy, but hurricane forecast accuracy, which is a storm that covers hundreds of square kilometers, doesn't seem like enough data to justify making the general claim 'modern weather forecasts' are stunningly accurate.

Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#55

Post by sleepysysadmin »

The recent snow storm in my area, 4 days in advance they were predicting 30cm of snow. 3.5 days in advance were 25cm of now. 3 days in advanced 15cm of snow. 2 days in advanced 5-10cm of snow. 1 day in advance 15cm of snow. We got about 10cm of snow.

Sorry but that's stunningly inaccurate.

Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#56

Post by RivieraKid »

sleepysysadmin wrote: post #55

The recent snow storm in my area, 4 days in advance they were predicting 30cm of snow. 3.5 days in advance were 25cm of now. 3 days in advanced 15cm of snow. 2 days in advanced 5-10cm of snow. 1 day in advance 15cm of snow. We got about 10cm of snow. Sorry but that's stunningly inaccurate.

Which model? Try ECMWF on windy.com, that's usually the most accurate one for long-term.

Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#57

Post by ams6110 »

saagarjha wrote: post #4

> In 2009, a back-of-the-envelope study estimated that U.S. adults check the weather forecast about 300 billion times per year. That's every single adult in the United States checking the weather four times a day . A bit more than I would have expected…

My weather check is normally looking out the window. I don't use forecasts very often.

Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#58

Post by usermac »

RivieraKid wrote: post #56
sleepysysadmin wrote: post #55

The recent snow storm in my area, 4 days in advance they were predicting 30cm of snow. 3.5 days in advance were 25cm of now. 3 days in advanced 15cm of snow. 2 days in advanced 5-10cm of snow. 1 day in advance 15cm of snow. We got about 10cm of snow. Sorry but that's stunningly inaccurate.

Which model? Try ECMWF on windy.com, that's usually the most accurate one for long-term.

Wow, what a nice looking weather website. Thanks. Didn't know about it.

Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#59

Post by AuthorizedCust »

sleepysysadmin wrote: post #55

The recent snow storm in my area, 4 days in advance they were predicting 30cm of snow. 3.5 days in advance were 25cm of now. 3 days in advanced 15cm of snow. 2 days in advanced 5-10cm of snow. 1 day in advance 15cm of snow. We got about 10cm of snow. Sorry but that's stunningly inaccurate.

While that's an anecdote, it's true too often for me to feel that forecasts are "stunningly accurate". That label implies near-perfection, which is laughable.

Re: Modern Weather Forecasts Are Stunningly Accurate

#60

Post by voyager2 »

maaaats wrote: post #40
voyager2 wrote: post #35

I use the forecast put out by weather.gov that's supposedly tailored to the square mile because it gets the 12 hour forecast right about 40% of the time. The others are worse. Of course, when they say "chance of precipitation is 80%, less than an inch possible" and it doesn't rain, the forecast is semantically "correct." Like the El Nino impact on the SE US, where they forecast a 50% chance of drier colder weather an…

> it gets the 12 hour forecast right about 40% of the time Where are these figures from? Your emotions, or something scientifically rigid? If the former, having this discussion is meaningless.

"chance of precipitation is 80%, less than an inch possible"

How would you determine, in a scientifically rigid manner, the limits on conditions which would validate that forecast as "right?" Or the inverse. What conditions would invalidate it as "not right?"

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