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China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

nytimes.com

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Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#51

Post by vfulco »

jbrun wrote: post #23

Having lived, worked and now running a B2B SaaS company there, the growth is real. Are the numbers exactly right, of course not. China is a massive, complex and not entirely transparent mesh of interests. Long story short though, there is a real middle class in China that is driving real consumer demand. This is starkly different to India, South Africa or Brazil where no real middle class exists. Much longer thoughts…

Running a relatively new global professional services company in Shanghai for 2 years, I really appreciate the perspective. Growth "feels" weak but not too and slightly stronger than 6 months ago. I can only speak to things I hear from other expats and my focused areas of English resume writing, Linkedin Profile editing, interview coaching, salary negotiations and assisting academics to get into foreign undergrad/grad/PhD programs.

All the best, Vince

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#52

Post by vfulco »

anthonyleecook wrote: post #29
jbrun wrote: post #23

Having lived, worked and now running a B2B SaaS company there, the growth is real. Are the numbers exactly right, of course not. China is a massive, complex and not entirely transparent mesh of interests. Long story short though, there is a real middle class in China that is driving real consumer demand. This is starkly different to India, South Africa or Brazil where no real middle class exists. Much longer thoughts…

China may have a middle class, but that middle class is still making a low $1000/month, even if that middle class is slightly bigger than 100M Also, lots of Chinese local governments have confessed to faking data. https://www.google.com/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id... http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/18/news/economy/china-province-... In addition, if you check out Anne Stevenson yang, a China expert living in Ch…

That's what it has "felt" like in some quarters the last 2 years.

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#53

Post by vfulco »

logfromblammo wrote: post #49
workthrowaway27 wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How easily can a non-ethnic Chinese person integrate into Chinese society though?

China (practically synonymous with Han ethnicity) has been shockingly racist by modern western standards for thousands of years. And that largely stems from the fact that Han culture has been mostly stable and very successful for most of those thousands of years. They only got a blip of doubt in their total confidence of racial superiority when American-European culture suddenly lurched ahead economically within the…

Great perspective. And I would add everyone I know; arms length relationships and not involved with their businesses at all, make strong efforts to get as much money out as possible. The saying essentially goes, "every few decades, something cataclysmic happens. Better to protect one's family." Not saying anything is going to happen, but the intelligent have not lost their history lessons and the self-inflicted wounds are never forgotten.

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#54

Post by pwaai »

anthonyleecook wrote: post #42
jbrun wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For example, we pay out team in Shanghai between 3000 USD and 1000 USD per month. They represent the middle class. Yes, it is less than many in the US, but it is still high enough to enjoy consumer products, travel, and invest in their future and their children's. Plus salaries are increasing 2-3% a year. Government spending on infrastructure is a huge part of GDP, but if you take the high speed trains in China you w…

Oh I lived in Pudong for a while ;). I will have to disagree with you. It was also very busy for US in 2007, during the housing bubble. And it was busy for Japan in 1989, during the asset bubble. There is little reason for China to be able to escape its massive bubble right now.

China is literally following step by step where Japan was, fighting debt with more debt, until they could no longer defend it.

It's also interesting that prior to 1989, there was real fear of Japan overtaking US and it was reflected by the media and films.

If you studied Economics in university, you will realize US hegemony is far more penetrating and hard to replicate due to network effect...its self evident when the Chinese political elite send their kids away from China, along with wealth...

In my humble opinion, the American empire is probably the most efficient and anti-fragile system set in human history because it feeds off on our weakness for rare material goods. I will have to agree with Warren Buffett that the next 100+ years for America will be very good indeed for business. Majority of the network is on an English speaking framework, it's unlikely to switch to hieroglyphics and archaic Confucian values that oppressed individual freedom.

tl;dr: China won't usurp the US hegemony without surpassing its military and its transnational and intranational reach through corporatism. Soft power plays a huge role and its not something communist architectures are known for. Otherwise, American elites would be fighting to send their kids to the dreamy foggy lands of Beijing University. The US model is to provide a platform where American corporations can thrive, with money or bullets. It's a system where the value of every nation's money is backed by it's own fiat currency, guaranteeing the #1 position as long as there isn't a civil war or something like that divides the country.

The only people that believe PRC will overtake the US are Chinese folks and through Chinese diaspora that bought the line.

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#55

Post by thenanyu »

iforgotpassword wrote: post #50
logfromblammo wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China (practically synonymous with Han ethnicity) has been shockingly racist by modern western standards for thousands of years. And that largely stems from the fact that Han culture has been mostly stable and very successful for most of those thousands of years. They only got a blip of doubt in their total confidence of racial superiority when American-European culture suddenly lurched ahead economically within the…

> undisputed center of the world, populated by the best, smartest, and most sophisticated people. Funny thats pretty much what the average Joe thinks about the US. I don't know how you ended up with that twisted opinion, but after working in software development in Beijing for almost two years I can't share these views at all. I perceived my colleagues as pragmatic, forward-looking, interested in politics regarding C…

All of this can be true at once—I have relatives who hold all of these positions. Like the US, China is a big country, with folks on all sides of the political spectrum.

(the following is based on personal experience so YMMV) If anything, they have a longer term perspective on history. It's an ancient civilization and they have seen it all. There are those who think it's inevitable that China will eventually be on top once again, but generally, even they are pretty humble going about it and eager to learn from Westerners and imitate what works (sometimes resulting in IP violations or cargo culting).

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#57

Post by thephyber »

oblio wrote: post #48
xeeeeeeeeeeenu wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think that USSR was a paper tiger?

The fact that there were shortage of basic necessities in its last years of its existence. The fact that the majority of its exports were oil and gas based, like those of a petro state. This comic describes it very well: https://goo.gl/GAn5fi

> The fact that the majority of its exports were oil and gas based, like those of a petro state.

What has changed?[1] I would argue that this neither confirms nor refutes your defense of the "paper tiger" assertion.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Russia#/media/File:...

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#58

Post by logfromblammo »

iforgotpassword wrote: post #50
logfromblammo wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China (practically synonymous with Han ethnicity) has been shockingly racist by modern western standards for thousands of years. And that largely stems from the fact that Han culture has been mostly stable and very successful for most of those thousands of years. They only got a blip of doubt in their total confidence of racial superiority when American-European culture suddenly lurched ahead economically within the…

> undisputed center of the world, populated by the best, smartest, and most sophisticated people. Funny thats pretty much what the average Joe thinks about the US. I don't know how you ended up with that twisted opinion, but after working in software development in Beijing for almost two years I can't share these views at all. I perceived my colleagues as pragmatic, forward-looking, interested in politics regarding C…

Citizens of the empire at or near the peak of its influence always think that. And if your culture has been rolling along for 2000 years almost without interruption, you might even be right.

It's just patriotism. I expect Chinese people to be as proud of China as Americans are of America. Some will be more die-hard than others, and some will be more humble about it.

All of my co-workers working in software are a lot more critical of our government and national politics than--to name near-antipodal opposites--some of my Trump-electing MAGA in-laws, for whom America is the paragon of nations that can do no wrong. Maybe you didn't talk to a representative sample?

The actual best, smartest, and most sophisticated people tend to be much more cosmopolitan in their world view (and in their distribution). But they aren't always the ones driving the politics, or the ones exporting the cultural stereotype.

Joe in the US idolizes the US, and Wei in China idolizes China. And to be fair, it is the most populous nation, with a rapidly growing middle class and developing high-tech manufacturing sector. While China hasn't ever been the center of the world, it has always been the center of east Asia.

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#59

Post by jbrun »

pwaai wrote: post #54
anthonyleecook wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh I lived in Pudong for a while ;). I will have to disagree with you. It was also very busy for US in 2007, during the housing bubble. And it was busy for Japan in 1989, during the asset bubble. There is little reason for China to be able to escape its massive bubble right now.

China is literally following step by step where Japan was, fighting debt with more debt, until they could no longer defend it. It's also interesting that prior to 1989, there was real fear of Japan overtaking US and it was reflected by the media and films. If you studied Economics in university, you will realize US hegemony is far more penetrating and hard to replicate due to network effect...its self evident when th…

Japan is a pretty good place to be born. Better than many places. Talking about debt without talking about assets and ownership structure of debt is incomplete.

Re: China’s Economic Growth Looks Strong, Maybe Too Strong

#60

Post by vfulco »

pwaai wrote: post #54
anthonyleecook wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh I lived in Pudong for a while ;). I will have to disagree with you. It was also very busy for US in 2007, during the housing bubble. And it was busy for Japan in 1989, during the asset bubble. There is little reason for China to be able to escape its massive bubble right now.

China is literally following step by step where Japan was, fighting debt with more debt, until they could no longer defend it. It's also interesting that prior to 1989, there was real fear of Japan overtaking US and it was reflected by the media and films. If you studied Economics in university, you will realize US hegemony is far more penetrating and hard to replicate due to network effect...its self evident when th…

The difference with China is as a Communist state, they can make the debt disappear into some bad bank in an instant. One year debt becomes thirty year debt to be worked out long after the officials are gone. There is no downside to them and who in the global investment community will hold them accountable? No one.
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