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Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

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Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#51
post #16

In any case, you shouldn't neglect the subtle but important sources of bias those pre-crime models can have. Here's an interesting talk about it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MfThopD7L1Y Basically, one instance of bias is the fact that many crime-prediction models are trained on police data, which means they will predict crime in places more often targeted by the police anyway. Then the model predictions even ampl…

We must ensure police are continuously allocated to crime-ridden areas, with or without AI, fair or not. If you are hinting at sending fewer police to black neighborhoods, you can bet that will never happen.

You must be talking from your white privilege.

It's a common known fact that crime-ridden, mostly minority neighborhoods have a complete dearth of services such as police, firefighters, and ambulance. Even back in the 80s, Public Enemy released a song called "911 is a Joke" because if you called 911 from a black neighborhood, they won't respond.

It's routinely known that cops will rather stay in rich neighborhoods and let the poorer neighborhoods fester. This happened during the LA riots where Koreantown burned because most of the cops went to Beverly Hill, etc, to protect the rich people.

I saw this first hand in Detroit about 8 years ago. I was driving through a bad neighborhood in Detroit with my friend, and we entered the neighborhood of Grosse Point, a rich area. Cops followed us until we left, which is their way of saying "you don't belong here". Meanwhile, among the burnt down houses and broken windows of Detroit proper, you couldn't see a single cop.

Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#52
post #33
post #16

In any case, you shouldn't neglect the subtle but important sources of bias those pre-crime models can have. Here's an interesting talk about it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MfThopD7L1Y Basically, one instance of bias is the fact that many crime-prediction models are trained on police data, which means they will predict crime in places more often targeted by the police anyway. Then the model predictions even ampl…

So if the AI identifies insider trading at trading firms, banks, etc., we should beware that this would create a feedback loop to look more into the investment and banking sectors and will ignore the mom and pop insider traders? That they go where crime is rampant over where it isn't and that could be a bad thing?

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#53

Careful! Your crime predictor might unfairly conclude that men are more likely to commit crimes than women.

Or worse, it might actually mention out loud that white collar crime kills more people and costs far more money to society every year than street crime, and mention that white collar crime is completely normalized and not even seen as deviant within upper class communities. What are you supposed to do then? Actually arrest the rich for the harm they do?

Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#54

Do you know about the journalist who spent years obsessing about this and supposedly had some predictive success relating to serial killers? If I recall it was kind of a lone wolf effort, so I don’t know the rigor of his techniques, howver you never know if he might want to share results or collaborate. Don’t have a link handy, but that should be enough info to google if you’re interested.

I think you're referring to this article about Thomas Hargrove that was in Bloomberg in February:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-02-08/serial-ki...

He's the founder of the Murder Accountability Project:

http://www.murderdata.org

Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#55
post #43
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's not inherently bad to have a bias, but it's bad if you don't recognize it. In your example: If you train an AI on data that solely consists of trading firms & banks, you should recognize that it's an AI biased towards detecting activity at trading firms & banks, and that it might be lacking in other areas. It becomes dangerous when such an AI is marketed and assumed as unbiased and the source of truth fo…

If we don't have infinite resources (prosecutorial, for example), it makes sense to concentrate on the most salient loci of crime. If after enough resources are devoted to the most egregious locus, a different locus becomes the focus of crime and in turn gets the attention, that's not a bad thing... In other words if done decently well, they'd obtain data from all places but focus on the problematic areas till they r…

Is it a loci because that is where the crime happens, or is it a loci because that is where all of the crime prevention/detection/prosecution is directed due to external circumstances? You have to be able to correct for this sort of bias in your training data or else you are just baking the external circumstances into the model and pretending that they reflect reality. Start by figuring out how you would obtain data from all places first.

Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#56
post #41
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OP wants an open sourced, data-based statistical model of where crime might occur (methodological flaws and all), and not an unasked-for politicized preaching about the supposed virtues of a subset of people over another subset of people.

As long as the methodological flaws are someone else's problem (the user/consumer), we don't need to take responsibility for building the tools that facilitate those methodological flaws, right?

I agree. I don't want the police using biased tools either.

OP has stated elsewhere in the comments that the reason they're interested in the tech is for testing it in some other unrelated area.

Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#57
post #56
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as the methodological flaws are someone else's problem (the user/consumer), we don't need to take responsibility for building the tools that facilitate those methodological flaws, right?

I agree. I don't want the police using biased tools either. OP has stated elsewhere in the comments that the reason they're interested in the tech is for testing it in some other unrelated area.

I don't see the OP making a claim like that. In any case, OP did not specify what the purpose of the tool was/is, and doesn't seem to be willing to explain the purpose of the the tool is.

Re: Ask HN: Any open source code/materials on predicting future crimes based on data?

#58
post #36
post #16

In any case, you shouldn't neglect the subtle but important sources of bias those pre-crime models can have. Here's an interesting talk about it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MfThopD7L1Y Basically, one instance of bias is the fact that many crime-prediction models are trained on police data, which means they will predict crime in places more often targeted by the police anyway. Then the model predictions even ampl…

Cathy O'Neil wrote a book called "Weapons of Math Destruction" -- interesting read. You can listen to an interview she does on econtalk -- interesting to learn more about the hidden biases. http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2016/10/cathy_oneil_on_1.ht...

>Cathy O'Neil wrote a book called "Weapons of Math Destruction" -- interesting read

+1000. That book should be required reading for anyone working in machine learning. Written by a former Wall Street quant who has the math down cold.

What she knows about rampant bias in allegedly politically agnostic machine learning circles is that the formulation and production of answers is trivial when compared to the formulation and production of questions.

Super-relevant to this thread is her work on recidivism risk scoring algos run on prisoners and defendants. The feedback loops that these algos spur are seriously damaging the lives of huge numbers of persons in the criminal justice system far beyond proportionality for the offenses that brought them there.

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