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Ask HN: POTUS Donald Trump; What this means to Silicon Valley

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Re: Ask HN: POTUS Donald Trump; What this means to Silicon Valley

#51
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or easier. Hillary is a face of western corruption to much of the world. So long as Trump delegates the tech stuff properly and doesn't do anything too unusual the moral choice of the US should be easier.

Hillary is a face of western corruption to much of the world. That's not even slightly true here in the UK.

A lot of people are making categorical statements about whole countries, on what I can only assume are their own experience. I'm surprised that after Brexit, you can still be this categorical about "the will of the people".

Re: Ask HN: POTUS Donald Trump; What this means to Silicon Valley

#52
post #5

I'd guess it will be a harder sell to get software developers in Europe, Australia, NZ, etc. to move to the US.

Actually it will be easier.

I was very worried about a Clinton, but with Trump I hope for more legality and fairness in the processes. And the visa caps may get raised, so less cheap workers will flood the quotas, and more good devs will have a chance.

The Trump bashing in Europe was evil though. As they preferred to have another criminal presidency, with enough leverage on them to blackmail them on everything. As it happened with the previous ones. Media is very naive, and not even moralistic. Assholes are still better than criminals.

Re: Ask HN: POTUS Donald Trump; What this means to Silicon Valley

#53
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

+ We are outsourced there but we are the customers in that equation. The Chinese will not make things more difficult for American buyers - they are in a very pernicious situation as it is. + As for tariffs: the thing is - we are already in a trade war . China can sell in the US at will. China blocks tons of American companies from selling to China. American exports to China are almost nothing. The Chinese are already…

> American exports to China are almost nothing. Except they are quite significant, third largest after Canada and Mexico.

After Canada, EU, then Mexico.

But you're right I probably over stated a little bit.

Nevertheless, the trade imbalance is massively lopsided.

Re: Ask HN: POTUS Donald Trump; What this means to Silicon Valley

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh... The Prime Minister of Australia is actively working against the technology industry here, and he actually states that preventing Australians from having better internet access is his biggest accomplishment.

Is there any (hopefully hilarious) argument behind this statement?

Background:

- Behold, the Australian "IT tax" makes everything 60% more expensive here Just Because™.

- There's absolutely nothing like Silicon Valley here. If there is I've never heard of it, and I live in Sydney, the most population-dense area.

Situation: the two political parties here (Labor and Liberal) have opposing ideas about how to implement our new fiber network. I forget who wants what (which says a lot).

- One wants fiber to the node, where you get a fiber termination box inside your house.

- The other wants fiber to the , where the fiber link terminates under the street or on a telegraph pole, and you get VDSL service along existing copper lines.

The problem: both solutions actually work, but the second one is a few million less expensive because fiber cable is a bajillion dollars per meter and it really does add up. (And then there's the problem that installers are nailing the fiber boxes to the first thing that looks like a wall because they have so many installations to do and insufficient resources, and then people are all like "???" when they realize their box is mounted to the ceiling... or at least that's what I think I heard...)

The other problem that nobody talks about: 1Gbps briefly got a "oh hey yeah that sounds awesome, we should look at that sometime around 2187" very early in the discussion a couple years ago, but I haven't really heard much to suggest this sort of capacity is actually going to happen anytime soon. And VDSL maxes out at 100Mbps.

It's a very difficult situation: do you create a technically-1Gbps-capable network capped at 100Mbps, or create a 100Mbps network for a few million less? Remember, there's no established Silicon Valley or similar scene here. Sure, there are tech companies, but it's not the same, there's no startup thing. (Case in point: how many .au companies are on Hacker News? Problem.)

Anybody can go out right now and get 500Mbps fiber for something like $499+/mo (business only - expensive Just Because™ \o/ (see? :/) and also due to SLAs etc) if you have fiber in your area (and the month has a Z in it), but that doesn't put it in the hands of random individuals. To enable the entire country (or at least the urban areas), the 1Gbps connectivity would need to be utterly ubiquitous, unconditionally deployed to everyone.

And so, in amongst all of this, all new dwellings are required (I think by law, or something close to one) to have fiber runs installed, and terminated in the street. Apparently the two new apartment blocks down the road from me have functioning NBN service, and I can see the "NBN" trench cover in the middle of the footpath outside the one I checked, so... it is rolling out, sort of, but all the political wrangling is creating a level of uncertainty that's slowing everything down horribly.

Oh, and the NBN (national broadband network)'s plan for rural Australia? 6Mbps satellite. What's latency? (Not much else they can do though :/)

I'll end on a good note though - this map is a lot more full than I make it sound like. http://www.nbnco.com.au/learn-about-the-nbn/rollout-map.html

Re: Ask HN: POTUS Donald Trump; What this means to Silicon Valley

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh... The Prime Minister of Australia is actively working against the technology industry here, and he actually states that preventing Australians from having better internet access is his biggest accomplishment.

ClassyJacket - you are a drongo. So is Turnbull, but it doesn't excuse you.

I like this statement very very much. (Also see my comment one level up.)

Re: Ask HN: POTUS Donald Trump; What this means to Silicon Valley

#57
post #3

That Peter Thiel is really good at picking winners and disruption.

Having watched and listened to Thiel for several years now, I came up with a pet hypothesis I call 'The Wolfian World' that I feel describes what's going on more accurately than the newspapers. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12884413

Quite an interesting observation and detailed comment. Are the presentations/videos available on YouTube?

Re: Ask HN: POTUS Donald Trump; What this means to Silicon Valley

#58

I actually think there is a possibility that it could be easier to get into US as highly skilled migrant under Trump presidency because of his anti-immigrant polities. If he raises a minimum income bar for H1B to 150K and keep the same cap, then it would be much less qualified applicants for H1B visas and therefore there would not be cap overflow with annoying lottery process. Of course, I can't predict what Trump is…

You confuse skill with high salary. If you're a part of HN community and work for a startup with some seed funding, good luck with (a) finding people (b) paying them $150k.

Not sure how you the want government to evaluate chemical, mechanical, aerospace etc. engineers. Right now it's formal education, since I think it's hard to do it objectively otherwise. For software engineers you expected USCIS will look at our ... GitHub accounts to evaluate it?

H1B as it is OK. Unfortunately big firms figured you can DDoS the application system and flood it with applications, get some people, underpay them and use them to replace more expensive and more qualified US people. This is a problem and it needs to be solved.

Read this article as an example: http://www.infoworld.com/article/3004501/h1b/proof-that-h-1b...

Re: Ask HN: POTUS Donald Trump; What this means to Silicon Valley

#60
post #3

That Peter Thiel is really good at picking winners and disruption.

That is very interesting. There was a recent interview of Jeff Bezos where he was asked to comment about Peter Thiel. He said Peter Thiel is a Contrarian. He then said that Conventional Wisdom is generally right and Contrarians are generally wrong, but when Contrarians are right they are right in a massive massive way !

This reminds me of Nassim Taleb's barbell risk management strategy: Avoid the middle in favor of the extremes. For investments, it means a combination of very conservative plus some high risk investments to win big. He applies it to many other areas, though, including health and politics.
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