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What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

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Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#51

Post by healthanomthrow »

discardorama wrote: post #22

I have a neighbor who used to work as a landscaper. The money was decent (in SF); his specialty was masonry. Then a couple of years ago, he decided to drop out. Claimed he had MS and started getting SSDI checks of about $2K/month (I think). After he dropped out, I've seen him lift 100lb stones; frequently, he'll drive down to Arizona for fishing trips with buddies; and recently, he drove cross-country to Georgia for…

I'd caution you against making easy assumptions about other people's health. MS is an episodic disease, which means that there are times when patients are near normal, and times when they're entirely incapacitated. Have you considered that you might have seen him to these things when he's not experiencing an episode? Not to mention that disability is fairly strict and that MS would be extremely hard to fake (pretty sure that MS diagnosis is usual made on the basis on MRI imaging).

Also, to take a very personal example, I've also got a neurological condition (not MS) that is fairly episodic. I'm fortunate that I'm have got a desk job as a software developer and so I haven't had to seek disability (despite being told by my physician he'd support an application). If I had to work going physical labor, I wouldn't have a choice but to apply for disability, since when my condition flares up I'm fairly immobile. Even walking short distances is difficult. There's simply no way I could hold down a 5 day/week physical labor job.

That said, when things are going well, I can be fairly active. Today I was out working on my deck. I take my kids to the zoo and walk around the entire park. If I had had to take disability, would people say the same things of me?

Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#52

Post by larrymyers »

bsder wrote: post #23
aschearer wrote: post #2

TLDR: They're students, retired boomers, or sick middle agers.

You're leaving out the really large "taking care of family" block. That includes "taking care of elderly" as well as "taking care of kids". Especially the "taking care of elderly" is putting a very large drain on resources that is simply going to get worse and worse as the boomers age.

It's especially difficult with how non-existent the possibility of "professional but part-time" is. I know my wife would love to begin putting her engineering degree back to use 15-20 hours a week, but the only real option is to go full time and enroll our daughter in full time daycare, which we really would prefer not to do.

Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#53

Post by edc117 »

nsheth17 wrote: post #36

The impact of this is going to become so obvious when interest rates start going up. Let me explain. Ultimately, how much money the workforce is making matters to consumer spending. People may be ok not having a job, because they have some way to stay at their standard of living. But unless a bunch of them are sitting on family trusts, it also means they don't have a growing amount of money to spend. Yet consumer spe…

Just curious, what do you mean by 'free money'? Most loans I've seen over the last few years vary from anywhere between 2.5%+ (houses) to 17% (credit cards). I don't think anyone would think of those as 'free'.

I would think the interest rates going up would actually encourage people to save more.

Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#54

Post by 6stringmerc »

michaelZejoop wrote: post #33
6stringmerc wrote: post #25

Huh, I've seen consistent material over at Zero Hedge[1] indicating that since 2007 the cohort that has made the most job gains is over the age of 55. " ...while the elderly workers in the US have risen by a whopping 7.4 million since the start of the Depression in December 2007, workers aged 25-54 are down 4 million! " As shown in this chart: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/im... If there's…

What is the nature and quality of the jobs these post 55 people have taken. Do the jobs they land in compare favorably with the jobs they were displaced from? Did they go from professional jobs to service sector jobs? This distinction is important. As a forced-into-early-retirement, former aerospace engineer, I am curious, and I will check your links later. As for my future, I am trying to create my own asset/company…

From the data I've seen, yes, they have gone from professional jobs to service sector jobs - or, at least the data indicates that those are the type of jobs that are being filled during recent memory. It's been a hunch of mine that the displaced older workforce's jobs simply don't exist anymore (layoffs due to technology, better for investors) and the service sector jobs would normally be for the younger population as they 'move up' through the ranks...but they can't get in...those spots are taken by the over 55 group. I think that they almost have to work, e.g. no retirement savings, unwilling to move to rural/low-income areas where their SSI might be sustainable. Vexing.

Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#55

Post by oconnore »

_delirium wrote: post #35
oconnore wrote: post #29

But the "in the labor force" category includes people who are forced to work part time so they don't collect benefits, get bumped from job to job, have unreliable hours, make less than the cost of living, etc. The graph should be split: - Has a reliable full time job with benefits - Has a minimum wage job, or is a part time employee/contractor making less than $20-30k a year.

It's not shown here, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics does further break down workers into full-time, voluntarily part-time, and involuntarily part-time [1]. Numbers for part-time workers below are for September 2015. Part-time for economic reasons (6 million) Slack work or business conditions (3.6 million) Could only find part-time work (2.1 million) Other (0.3 million) Part-time for noneconomic reasons (20 millio…

Thanks, so depending on how you count unincorporated, self employed workers, you get between 3.5% [1] and 9% [2] of the labor force underemployed (not looking at salary). I suspect there are more Uber drivers than successful independent consultants, but we don't have data about that.

That's better than I expected.

[1]: (6036) / (2357 + 146464 + 19656) [2]: (6036 + 8357 + 820) / (2357 + 146464 + 19656)

Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#56

Post by Mz »

TallGuyShort wrote: post #39
cryoshon wrote: post #27

This article doesn't really delve into the percentage of the population that "doesn't look, but still wants a job". This population is the most important one as far as generational wealth and health is concerned; retiring and disabled boomers are to be expected. Part of this is an intentional misrepresentation of the employment numbers. In order to be counted as "unemployed" you must first have had stable "employment…

I think the whole point of the article was that we need to know more about that percentage of the population that "doesn't look, but still wants a job", because dismissive explanations are insufficient. Does anyone on HN have suggestions of possible explanations for some of that percentage? I don't understand it. Is it people who wanted a job, but gave up looking? Other situations that would fall into this category o…

Sometimes, people would rather see themselves as lazy or free spirits than admit to disability. I was acquainted for a time with a homeless man who seemed able bodied but had a mental health issue. He quit his job and walked away from his worldly possessions to get off the zombifying drugs required to make him employable. I have a different disability but made similar choices, so I am sympathetic. But he was very resistant to admitting that he was too handicapped to hold down a job. I knew him a while before that became clear to me. And it isn't anything you would infer at first glance. If you saw him, he looked tall and strong and able bodied, he sounds intelligent and is intelligent and the degree to which he is not mentally sound is just not obvious to casual inspection.

I have two adult sons who have never had jobs. They also look hail and hardy. They both have some issues. We are still trying to work out how they can make money in spite of being basically unemployable.

I suspect this happens more than is recognized. My handicap was not identified until age 35. I got called "lazy" a lot until I had a diagnosis. I am a woman and was fortunate to be able to hide out for many years behind the title of full time wife and mom.

Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#57

Post by nickff »

omarchowdhury wrote: post #41
e40 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's because that industry uses a lot of old (software) technology and older folks tend to know it best.

The grandparent (no pun intended) said he was forced into early retirement though. Shouldn't he be more valuable as he grows older?

It seems that the salary schedule is out of line with the actual value of the employee's labor (assuming that there is no widespread irrational behaviour in the industry). This could be related to a skills development plateau, decreased attitude/attention/enthusiasm, or possibly even risk-aversion in older employees.

Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#58

Post by tsotha »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #26
discardorama wrote: post #22

I have a neighbor who used to work as a landscaper. The money was decent (in SF); his specialty was masonry. Then a couple of years ago, he decided to drop out. Claimed he had MS and started getting SSDI checks of about $2K/month (I think). After he dropped out, I've seen him lift 100lb stones; frequently, he'll drive down to Arizona for fishing trips with buddies; and recently, he drove cross-country to Georgia for…

This is infuriating. My mother is 58. Her lower spinal column was collapsed, and she's had it reconstructed using titanium plates and screws during a 6 hour surgery. She has been denied for disability by the Social Security Administration twice, and currently has to wait ~500 days for her next appeal ( https://www.ssa.gov/appeals/DataSets/01_NetStat_Report.html ) in front of an panel of judges (this backlog is caused…

From what I can tell you'll get disability if you keep bothering them long enough. I know guys who are on disability for lower back pain with no physical evidence, i.e. x-rays are normal. They all got turned down a few times at first, but I get the impression if you keep at it long enough they give you benefits just to get rid of you.

Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#59

Post by icelancer »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #26
discardorama wrote: post #22

I have a neighbor who used to work as a landscaper. The money was decent (in SF); his specialty was masonry. Then a couple of years ago, he decided to drop out. Claimed he had MS and started getting SSDI checks of about $2K/month (I think). After he dropped out, I've seen him lift 100lb stones; frequently, he'll drive down to Arizona for fishing trips with buddies; and recently, he drove cross-country to Georgia for…

This is infuriating. My mother is 58. Her lower spinal column was collapsed, and she's had it reconstructed using titanium plates and screws during a 6 hour surgery. She has been denied for disability by the Social Security Administration twice, and currently has to wait ~500 days for her next appeal ( https://www.ssa.gov/appeals/DataSets/01_NetStat_Report.html ) in front of an panel of judges (this backlog is caused…

>How the hell are people who don't need disability getting approved, and the people who don't need it are stuck in purgatory?

Because bureaucracy basically guarantees this exact injustice will occur.

Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#60

Post by tsotha »

paulcole wrote: post #50
discardorama wrote: post #22

I have a neighbor who used to work as a landscaper. The money was decent (in SF); his specialty was masonry. Then a couple of years ago, he decided to drop out. Claimed he had MS and started getting SSDI checks of about $2K/month (I think). After he dropped out, I've seen him lift 100lb stones; frequently, he'll drive down to Arizona for fishing trips with buddies; and recently, he drove cross-country to Georgia for…

You're taking anecdata from anecdata. "I know one guy who is potentially abusing disability. I have seen him on ones of occasions do something that makes me think he should be working."

While what you're saying is true, there's an amazing jump in the number of disabled people that coincides with the onset of the recession in 2008.
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