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What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

blogs.wsj.com

21–30 of 72 posts

Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#21
post #7

TLDR: They're students, retired boomers, or sick middle agers.

This comment is overly reductionist -- 'disabled' is a code word for long-term un-employable. Just eyball the proportion of working adults in the 50 to 60 year range. It is only ~5x the number of disabled. In other words, that is a huge %--maybe 20%--of potential workers in that age bracket. Any employment process that disables 20% of its workforce would be normally considered a problem. But instead we call the un-em…

Right. I also wonder how many people are only in school because a decent job is out of reach. If you're older and can't find a job, you go on disability. If you're young, you take out loans and go to school. It's a huge generalization, but I think there's some truth to it.

Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#22
I have a neighbor who used to work as a landscaper. The money was decent (in SF); his specialty was masonry. Then a couple of years ago, he decided to drop out. Claimed he had MS and started getting SSDI checks of about $2K/month (I think). After he dropped out, I've seen him lift 100lb stones; frequently, he'll drive down to Arizona for fishing trips with buddies; and recently, he drove cross-country to Georgia for a HS reunion, and made it from Albuquerque to SF in 1 day. All this, despite having MS. I feel, if he can do all these activities, he can damn well work; but he's been able to fool the system for the last 3-4 years.

If you look at the SSDI stats: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/dibStat.html it is interesting to see that when the Financial Crisis happened, the number of applicants jumped drastically; a 34% increase from 2007 to 2009. And as the economy has picked up recently, the number of applications has gone down; a 15% drop from 2010 to 2014.

While I do support the idea of a "safety net", I don't like the idea of people dipping into SSDI when they don't feel like working (or can't get work).

Added later: (1330PST): A lot of people are saying that he could just be having a good day or two. Maybe; but he has enough good days (when I see him), there's no reason that he would not work on his "good days". Secondly: my last conversation with him (3-4 weeks ago) was about how he could go about getting a cash-only gig, and he wanted my opinion (me being a tech guy). I recommended Postmates/TaskRabbit, but he shied away from those, opting for cash gigs from Craigslist. Maybe the 1099 would have ratted him out? I dunno.

Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#23

TLDR: They're students, retired boomers, or sick middle agers.

You're leaving out the really large "taking care of family" block.

That includes "taking care of elderly" as well as "taking care of kids". Especially the "taking care of elderly" is putting a very large drain on resources that is simply going to get worse and worse as the boomers age.

Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#24
post #7

TLDR: They're students, retired boomers, or sick middle agers.

This comment is overly reductionist -- 'disabled' is a code word for long-term un-employable. Just eyball the proportion of working adults in the 50 to 60 year range. It is only ~5x the number of disabled. In other words, that is a huge %--maybe 20%--of potential workers in that age bracket. Any employment process that disables 20% of its workforce would be normally considered a problem. But instead we call the un-em…

[deleted]

Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#25
Huh, I've seen consistent material over at Zero Hedge[1] indicating that since 2007 the cohort that has made the most job gains is over the age of 55.

"...while the elderly workers in the US have risen by a whopping 7.4 million since the start of the Depression in December 2007, workers aged 25-54 are down 4 million!"

As shown in this chart:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/im...

If there's a person here with a good handle on how the WSJ article and the noted Zero Hedge article relate to one another, I'd be very interested in your perspective.

[1] Article source, August 2015. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-07/prime-aged-workers-...

Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#26

I have a neighbor who used to work as a landscaper. The money was decent (in SF); his specialty was masonry. Then a couple of years ago, he decided to drop out. Claimed he had MS and started getting SSDI checks of about $2K/month (I think). After he dropped out, I've seen him lift 100lb stones; frequently, he'll drive down to Arizona for fishing trips with buddies; and recently, he drove cross-country to Georgia for…

This is infuriating.

My mother is 58. Her lower spinal column was collapsed, and she's had it reconstructed using titanium plates and screws during a 6 hour surgery. She has been denied for disability by the Social Security Administration twice, and currently has to wait ~500 days for her next appeal (https://www.ssa.gov/appeals/DataSets/01_NetStat_Report.html) in front of an panel of judges (this backlog is caused by Congress providing insufficient funding to process said backlog).

How the hell are people who don't need disability getting approved, and the people who don't need it are stuck in purgatory?

Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#27
This article doesn't really delve into the percentage of the population that "doesn't look, but still wants a job". This population is the most important one as far as generational wealth and health is concerned; retiring and disabled boomers are to be expected.

Part of this is an intentional misrepresentation of the employment numbers. In order to be counted as "unemployed" you must first have had stable "employment". Thus, people just out of high school or college that are unable to find their first job (which is often extremely hard to come by) are not counted as unemployed, despite being so. The other problem is that after unemployment benefits expire, people aren't counted as unemployed anymore, so the unemployment stat goes down, but the percentage not in the labor force goes up.

Employment indicators U3/U6 are remarkably poor for depicting gainful employment in the wake of economic depressions; they're meant to measure unemployment that is expected to be transient. Super long-term unemployment, difficulty finding a first job, and underemployment are not adequately measured, though the part-time employment stat is somewhat taken into account.

Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#28
There is a portion of the spectrum that seems like it is in the "wants a job, but is not looking" category that is not properly represented. I am in sub-category of "wants a gainful future (after being laid off - essentially forced into early retirement - from a long aerospace career) but is not looking for a job (either in the sector I left, or in the service sector). Aerospace is notorious for ageism, and I have no future there. I will not look for a job as a barrista or a clerk at Home Depot, so, no, I am not looking.

I am however trying to create my own future as an entrepreneur and build my own company. This effort being bootstrapped, on my own dime, using funds that should have been reserved for retirement. There is a lot of solid engineering talent and experience that is laying dormant - I am trying to counter that by building my own asset/company.

Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#29
But the "in the labor force" category includes people who are forced to work part time so they don't collect benefits, get bumped from job to job, have unreliable hours, make less than the cost of living, etc.

The graph should be split:

- Has a reliable full time job with benefits

- Has a minimum wage job, or is a part time employee/contractor making less than $20-30k a year.

Re: What We Know About the 92M Americans Who Aren’t in the Labor Force

#30

There is a portion of the spectrum that seems like it is in the "wants a job, but is not looking" category that is not properly represented. I am in sub-category of "wants a gainful future (after being laid off - essentially forced into early retirement - from a long aerospace career) but is not looking for a job (either in the sector I left, or in the service sector). Aerospace is notorious for ageism, and I have no…

Aerospace is ageist towards the older people? That's interesting, I'd think that experience would be the most important factor in that space.
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