2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out • Hacker News Board

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#491

Post by wao0uuno » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 10:32 PM UTC

HaloZero wrote: post #248

throwatdem12311 wrote: post #211

My own PC died and now I’m locked out of my entire Steam library for the foreseeable future. A $2000 PC is literally a downgrade from what I bought 10 freaking years ago. What the freaking hell.

How does the steam machine compare to building your own?

When building your own you can get:

- 2x the GPU for about the same price.

- Same power usage while in sleep.

- HDMI CEC with a dongle.

- Wake up from sleep with controller if using official Steam Controller.

- Cool and quiet operation. You can actually beat Steam Machine at noise levels under load.

- Upgradability.

- Standard parts that are easy to service and replace.

What you can't get with a custom PC is:

- Comparable size.

- Comparable support (software/firmware fixes and good warranty/service).

- Cool led strip unless you're into electronics and can make your own from scratch.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#492

Post by lostmsu » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 10:41 PM UTC

prepend wrote: post #204

lostmsu wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every produce storage facility going to have them, won't it?

No. It’s not economical for produce to have backup generators. Better to just move produce or let it go.

Sure, start sabotage with this one then https://oceancos.com/ocean-cold

Salmon is not too important anyway.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#493

Post by embedding-shape » Sat, Aug 08, 2026, 10:47 PM UTC

undersuit wrote: post #458

embedding-shape wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> this wont be possible as a lot of them aren't being packaged on traditional DDR memory boards. They're being put on things like the MI350X Even better, looking forward to having hardware like that at home for "cheap" in the future, compared to what it costs right now :)

The MI350X has a 1000W TDP. Maybe I'd use it in the winter.

My workstation is 1600W TDP and my office does get a bit cold in the winter, so it would do just fine next to us :)

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#494

Post by happyPersonR » Sun, Aug 09, 2026, 12:27 AM UTC

bilegeek wrote: post #474

SecretDreams wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm going to be very pumped when this comes crashing down. It's going to look a bit like oligarchs subsidizing consumer tech as they try to offload more ram than God could own.

Everybody from OpenAI to Micron to the US Government is actively colluding to keep things going. I would love for you to be right, but I'm cynical from the decades that have been spent insulating these companies from consequences.

you're right ... but china hahaha

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#495

Post by andrekandre » Sun, Aug 09, 2026, 1:37 AM UTC

zenoprax wrote: post #459

jonhohle wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just did exactly that. I had an old i7 with 64GB of DDR4 that I bought when it was cheap. DDR5 was so expensive I just bought an AM4 and moved the RAM over. My MacBook is showing its age, though. Hearing that 2027 wont be any better makes me hopeful all the vibe coders can ask for memory efficient implementations to stretch existing hardware a little further.

> Hearing that 2027 wont be any better makes me hopeful all the vibe coders can ask for memory efficient implementations to stretch existing hardware a little further. I've been thinking about this too. After being forced to work off a laptop with 6GB of RAM for a few weeks it made me appreciate my 32GB at home where I run Electron apps with abandon. It still seems crazy to me that we've normalized running an entire…

  > just because the UI frameworks are too hard/unfamiliar

i'm not sure if thats the biggest issue. working at a few large companies that had to support multiple platforms, the management was always looking for ways to deduplicate work with things like flutter, kmp etc; they just want one codebase to manage and qa because 2 or more gets to be hard for them to handle (hiring is also easier)

i take it even with ai companies will still do this, whith exhibit a being the electron-based codex app from openai...

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#496

Post by scrtm » Sun, Aug 09, 2026, 2:28 AM UTC

dismalaf wrote: post #447

scrtm wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

micron is up to like 85% gross margin this year

Yes, when demand spikes prices rise.

sure, but spikes are sharp and demand is expected to continue outpacing supply/capacity for the foreseeable future afaict

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#497

Post by inigyou » Sun, Aug 09, 2026, 2:39 AM UTC

abanana wrote: post #408

inigyou wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can we stop abusing the technical economic definition of "shortage"? In economics a shortage means the price is too low for the demand quantity, but in everyday usage a shortage means the supply quantity is too low. With the basic supply/demand curve, "shortage" and "discount" are synonyms and I know which word makes more sense to describe the scenario.

What? There's no abuse going on here, because (1) the technical economic definition of "shortage" is simply demand exceeding supply, exactly the same as the everyday meaning; and (2) even if the meanings were different, technical or domain-specific-jargon meanings of words don't trump everyday-use meanings, unless you're in a technical meeting of people within that narrow domain.

Economist definition: demand at this price level exceeds supply at this price level

Normal people definition: there isn't enough to go around

Economist corollary: there is enough to go around, people are just buying more than they need because the price is low

Can you tell the difference between the supermarket put potatoes on sale and sold out, and there are no potatoes because of the potato blight?

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#498

Post by phire » Sun, Aug 09, 2026, 4:23 AM UTC

gaigalas wrote: post #399

phire wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if they need to replace every single lithography machine, there are a lot of other machines that probably don't need to be replaced for any given upgrade. Like everything related to it being a clean room; All the logistics robots which move wafers around; All the machines that deposit layers of material like CVD/AVD/Sputtering; The various machines that do the actual etching; The furnaces; The inspection and qua…

That is somehow inaccurate. DDR5 has significantly more challenging requirements. The inspection and quality control equipment is one of those that you can't just reuse without careful transitioning. DDR5 has much higher speeds, on-die ECC and all sorts of complications DDR4 doesn't have.

I'm not even sure inspection and quality control is done at the fab.

At least with logic ICs, they either testing/QC/bining as part of packaging (before dicing), or even have factories that specialise in just testing/QC/Binning. Such fallacies need to be flexible enough to deal with thousands of different IC designs, and there is no reason to tie them to a given process node.

I guess with memory, there are only three-ish designs (DDR, LPDDR, HBM), so maybe it does make sense to integrate testing/QC/binning into the fab.

But I doubt they would have any trouble switching it out.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#499

Post by hardbass » Sun, Aug 09, 2026, 5:35 AM UTC

noduerme wrote: post #328

So LLM profiteers have bought up all the consumer RAM for the next several years in order to deliver more of a service we're already oversaturated with that doesn't turn a profit..? I guess by then there'll be no consumers left with jobs to afford a PlayStation 6, so no problem. Except how will the AI trainers find revenue? If maximum potential is reached by laying off 90% of workers at companies that sell stuff... h…

Who is holding the hands of RAM fabs and stopping them from making more? Its not the first time they have been caught doing collusion and price fixing tactics.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#500

Post by zahlman » Sun, Aug 09, 2026, 7:37 AM UTC

gaigalas wrote: post #396

zahlman wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Isn't DDR4 like, old and obsolete? I'm posting this from a machine that uses DDR3 and is still perfectly capable of meeting my needs.

My comment was in the context of fabrication and how that affects the price of DDR4. DDR5 fabrication requires a sub 15mm process, much more complex mounting and lots more testing equipment. It means you can't just quickly convert a DDR4 fab to DDR5. It was meant to explain that DDR4 price increase has nothing to do with supply chain lanes, and it's more of an artificial demand manipulation than anything else.

>explain that DDR4 price increase has nothing to do with supply chain lanes, and it's more of an artificial demand manipulation

There's no evidence of anything artificial here, except to the extent that the data center-driven demand could be called "artificial". When prices for DDR5 go up, it's only to be expected that this induces demand for DDR4, the spillover from people who were priced out of DDR5. Much the same principle that rent control advocates stumble on: "affordable housing" is mainly a consequence of more housing, rather than something to target directly.