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If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know

jonready.com

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Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know

#491

Post by Culonavirus »

gck1 wrote: post #284
torben-friis wrote: post #37

They have a silent nerfing system for their models and say so openly. The obvious question is how much it is being used already. Competitor companies being nerfed? Non Americans getting worse code? Punishing and rewarding users to maximize engagement, like online games do affecting victories through matchmaking?

No big pockets and ask it to review your own codebase for security issues? You hacker. Ban. Anthropic simply can't be allowed to succeed. This is the most E Corp shit I've seen since I've been alive.

Careful, someone may drop another whine article about HN being anti-ai (meanwhile nothing can be further from the truth, HN is one of the most, if not THE most, pro-AI news agg sites out there)

Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know

#492

Post by vidarh »

ethbr1 wrote: post #463
vidarh wrote: post #435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"You're totally right about X and Y. I think the only thing we disagree about is Z". People like being told they're right, and you then downplay the importance of the actual remaining disagreement. Often that lowers the stakes for people. They've already "won" since you agreed with most of what they said, so the rest becomes less important.

Repeating back what someone said (specifically: trying to mirror their exact words as best you can remember them) also has proven psychological effects: increased empathy and calming of your own emotional response and theirs. It's a component of a few psych frameworks around improving interpersonal conflict. Ref: https://hartsteinpsychological.com/the-power-of-active-liste... Short template form is "What I think I he…

Yeah, 100% agree with that.

Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know

#493

Post by supriyo-biswas »

jsw97 wrote: post #184

Given the high rate of false positives people are reporting for the non-silent cybersecurity, biological, etc., safeguards, there is a strong likelihood that you will encounter silently nerfed behavior even if you are _not_ violating their TOS. Ultimately this will be evident in the way customers / external benchmarkers experience Fable. Hopefully competition will drive future models toward a lower false positive rat…

I mean, the other day I got blocked from Claude for asking about releasing genetically modified sterile mosquitoes; I'm sure everything will be totally fine as Anthropic's restrictions are completely reasonable, measured and appropriate.

Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know

#494

Post by jbs789 »

splwjs wrote: post #475

There's already an obvious stench to "you should scale down your engineering team to a skeleton crew whose core competency is using our product, so that it's the only way to modify your product"; that's going to result in a lot of foodless tables when anthropic et al decide they have enough leverage to stop subsidizing their subscription prices down to what, 4-10% of the marginal cost? Well it doesn't matter how much…

Repeat of the cycle where companies moved to the cloud, now locked in.

Move engineering to Claude, then locked in.

What’s played out at the infra level will now play out at the software engineer level… is that analogous…?

Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know

#496

Post by SOLAR_FIELDS »

dudisubekti wrote: post #279
Ferret7446 wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The moat is not the model, it's the harness. I wager that's one of the main reasons why Google made Antigravity closed source.

But harness is relatively easy to code yourself? They're just system prompt composer, with some tool functions that the LLM can invoke. I've vibe coded my own in just one day.

I don't understand why this is being presented as an either/or thing.

The moat is actually the harness AND the model, and one of the reasons that Claude works so well is because the model is actually trained with its usage in that specific harness in mind, and the harness is designed to deal with Claude model's idiosyncracies. Easy to validate, just run Claude through some other harness and compare, then just run some other model through Claude's harness and compare

Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know

#497

Post by hedora »

Vetch wrote: post #432
trhway wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Pretty likely to be some degree of diminishing returns intelligence may be different. If we look at biological brains - do we get diminishing returns or completely opposite scaling law when we compare our brain against say gorilla's ?

Interesting thought to consider in principle but fails because gorilla brains continued to evolve too, just along a different path. They're not snapshots of ancestral species locked in time.

Also, it’s definitely diminishing returns, by weight, at least.

Architecture / biological structure matters more.

I’d expect weight and wattage to be proportional for animals, at least.

Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know

#499

Post by hedora »

theLiminator wrote: post #357
altcognito wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Single clock speed hasn't had much of an upgrade, but the architecture for doing exactly what they are doing? That will improve for at least 5-10 years. There are both huge power gains from Processing in Memory (PIM) chips (70-80% discount in energy), and improvements to engineering to make memory cheaper and cheaper.

Yes, I'm talking about a supercomputer from today in your pocket. That probably requires at least 5000x perf/watt if not even more.

That’s only two order of magnitude software optimizations, a bunch of plus delta’s, and one order of magnitude on hw.

I’d give that over 50% odds of happening in the next few years.

Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know

#500

Post by hedora »

KeplerBoy wrote: post #467
theLiminator wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But, history says the supercomputer of today will fit in your pocket in a few years. I don't think this will be true in the same time span anymore. Each miniaturization is costing more and more money. Perhaps they'll come up with exotic fundamental improvements, but I don't think the rate of improvement of compute/watt will match the previous decades.

That has never been true, unfortunately. The 2005 top500 was led by bluegene/L achieving 280 FP64 TFlop/s. Apple is talking about 17.5 FP16 TFlop/s on the iphone 17 neural engine. So 20 years later we are still nowhere near, not even at reduced precision.

That’s a factor of 10-20.

You can get an SoC that does 126 TOPs (strix halo) in tablet form factor, which is a factor of two. (I’ll count them as equivalent ops, since software couldn’t low precision floating point back then). So, not quite “pocket”, but probably “purse” and certainly backpack.

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