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If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know

jonready.com

221–230 of 534 posts

Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They trained their models on everyone's data on the internet, and certainly violated many website terms of service.

that option is still available to everyone to be clear, I'm not saying what they did in scraping to learn was ethical. It wasn't. But I just don't see it as pulling the ladder. The ladder is still there.

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Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know

#222

I spend a lot of time telling Opus 4.8 to search for security bugs in the code it wrote, and it spends a lot of time finding them, and then fixing them. Fable wont let me fix the security issues that Opus 4.8 created.

Yeah, this breaks the notion that the technical debt you're accumulating with today's AI can be fixed by tommorrow's AI.

Tomorrows AI may either refuse, or silently mess up your code because Anthropic don't like what you're working on.

Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know

#224
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What moat? There are multiple companies providing pareto-optimal frontier models, and it takes O(10) people to build one of these things. The rest is capital intensive, and the price will approach the cost of production over time. Thinking this is a profitable endeavor is equivalent to claiming coal plants have good margins because boilers are expensive.

I think we agree? What moat? You answered yourself: "capital intensive" But, history says the supercomputer of today will fit in your pocket in a few years. They've bought up all the RAM and GPUs, which pushes the capital requirements upward for everyone else. But, they can't corner the market forever, there are too many competing interests. AMD and Intel keep making new GPUs and APUs. The memory makers can't just se…

The other half of the moat is the data they stole from everyone else, some of it illegally. So, be sure they will do everything in their power to stop others from getting that data freely.

Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know

#225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They trained their models on everyone's data on the internet, and certainly violated many website terms of service.

that option is still available to everyone to be clear, I'm not saying what they did in scraping to learn was ethical. It wasn't. But I just don't see it as pulling the ladder. The ladder is still there.

"You can't take code produced by our service to make competing services, but we can take code you produced to compete with your service (i.e. software engineering)" is pulling up the ladder IMO. If they can from-scratch train a model without using human-produced code, I think they're within their rights to stop humans from using their model to compete with them. But if they're training on GitHub/Hugging Face/arXiv/Common Crawl/etc, which certainly includes many open-source repos whose licenses they're violating, I don't think they should be legally allowed to prevent people from using their model to produce code that merely competes with them. They themselves have taken other people's code in order to compete with software engineers.

I hope they get nationalized and either the models are open-sourced or the profits are owned by the public.

Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know

#226
post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "YOLO" is not a reasonable answer here. Yes it is. (1) Ordinary people were able to do these things pre AI-- with some effort into study for sure. (2) The cat is already out of the bag, open models can already help with these tasks. I know freedom is frightening, but it always has been. It's important to avoid falling into the trap of assuming that everything that existed when you gained awareness was safe and norm…

Kindly drop the condescension. It is, in fact, possible for the world to get more dangerous over time . It is important to avoid falling into the trap of assuming that's inevitable. > Ordinary people were able to do these things pre AI-- with some effort into study for sure. Yes, and the amount of study and knowledge required had a tendency to filter out people with the inclination to do such things. The Venn diagram…

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Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know

#227

It is very difficult to see this move as anything other than Anthropic pulling the ladder up behind itself. They can dress it up in "safety" all they want, I find it hard to interpret this in a charitable way. This reminds me of how dark-pattern common wisdom in Web 1.0 website development was to ban external links. Then how social apps prevented the export of data and actively worked to nerf significant interoperabi…

It's becoming extremely important to support open-source AI, especially legally. Anthropic is willing to go totalitarian this quickly; imagine how much worse they'd be willing to do with government-granted monopolies that ban open-source competition (like they've repeatedly pursued). It's a little shocking and gruesome how quickly they're willing to tip their hand. They want to replace all software engineering with t…

> like they've repeatedly pursued).

source?

Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we agree? What moat? You answered yourself: "capital intensive" But, history says the supercomputer of today will fit in your pocket in a few years. They've bought up all the RAM and GPUs, which pushes the capital requirements upward for everyone else. But, they can't corner the market forever, there are too many competing interests. AMD and Intel keep making new GPUs and APUs. The memory makers can't just se…

> But, history says the supercomputer of today will fit in your pocket in a few years. I don't think this will be true in the same time span anymore. Each miniaturization is costing more and more money. Perhaps they'll come up with exotic fundamental improvements, but I don't think the rate of improvement of compute/watt will match the previous decades.

Single clock speed hasn't had much of an upgrade, but the architecture for doing exactly what they are doing? That will improve for at least 5-10 years. There are both huge power gains from Processing in Memory (PIM) chips (70-80% discount in energy), and improvements to engineering to make memory cheaper and cheaper.

Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know

#229
post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "YOLO" is not a reasonable answer here. Yes it is. (1) Ordinary people were able to do these things pre AI-- with some effort into study for sure. (2) The cat is already out of the bag, open models can already help with these tasks. I know freedom is frightening, but it always has been. It's important to avoid falling into the trap of assuming that everything that existed when you gained awareness was safe and norm…

Kindly drop the condescension. It is, in fact, possible for the world to get more dangerous over time . It is important to avoid falling into the trap of assuming that's inevitable. > Ordinary people were able to do these things pre AI-- with some effort into study for sure. Yes, and the amount of study and knowledge required had a tendency to filter out people with the inclination to do such things. The Venn diagram…

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Re: If Claude Fable stops helping you, you'll never know

#230

It is very difficult to see this move as anything other than Anthropic pulling the ladder up behind itself. They can dress it up in "safety" all they want, I find it hard to interpret this in a charitable way. This reminds me of how dark-pattern common wisdom in Web 1.0 website development was to ban external links. Then how social apps prevented the export of data and actively worked to nerf significant interoperabi…

It's becoming extremely important to support open-source AI, especially legally. Anthropic is willing to go totalitarian this quickly; imagine how much worse they'd be willing to do with government-granted monopolies that ban open-source competition (like they've repeatedly pursued). It's a little shocking and gruesome how quickly they're willing to tip their hand. They want to replace all software engineering with t…

Open source doesnt matter if you still need to make 100k year to have your own mediocre model.

There is no magic compression. There is no magic post training. Your phone or laptop will never do what you think its going to be able to.

There are limits to what consumer hardware will ever be able to run, in its current form. Open source isn't going to save us if they gatekeep access to hardware, which idk if you've been paying attention. They dont plan on making consumer grade hardware more powerful, they want to rent that power to you.

Technological serfdom is coming if they get their way.

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