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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#491

Post by etskinner »

thaumasiotes wrote: post #360
nazcan wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is one thing I've heard repeated - that USD needs to be spent in America - seems like other countries could just transact with it directly.

They can and they do; that's called dollarization. It's worth observing that dollars that are never supposed to return to the US don't have the same anti-counterfeiting pressure that dollars spent in the US do. I don't know how much of a market there is in counterfeiting USD for dollarized economies.

This sounds hard to believe. Adding anti-counterfeit messures to the bills that have them ($10s and up?) can't be that expensive compared to the value of the note, why would they make two different versions?

Not to mention, that would break fungibility.

Can you provide a source?

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#492

Post by jfyi »

ryoshoe wrote: post #205
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is ruled by the Communist Party. It does not seem unreasonable to call them a communist country. Yes, I know, they have moved away from historical communism, and it's more of a "brand name" than an ideological description. Still, it is their chosen name for what they're doing.

Sure but this is like calling North Korea a democracy because the official name of the country is the "Democratic People's Republic of Korea"

China is a Communist country (in the Leninist sense), it's just that Shenzhen is a special economic zone. This allows them to keep their ideology while operating within the global market economy.

It's also why Democracy and unbridled Capitalism leaking into Hong Kong is problematic for them. Though, to be fair, Hong Kong is also why Shenzhen has been such a success for them.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#493

Post by hirako2000 »

edm0nd wrote: post #364
deadbabe wrote: post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do people say this… ok so you buy at 120 and now it’s back at 85, no big deal that’s the same as a few weeks ago!?

yes, that is correct. most people are long on silver and gold. who cares if there was a slight correction. I bought the bulk of my silver in the $20-30 range and am still buying. I bought on the way up, I bought at $120, I'll buy at $85. The price at the time I buy really doesnt matter to me. Only when I sell will it matter. I hope to cash out and buy ~150 acres of land with it to hunt on and live on.

Which was my point. Unless someone is heavily leveraged or happen to have bought at the very peak, what matters is the rend, not intra day phenomenons.

I don't mind getting down voted by leveraged traders who got liquidated.

For disclosure I think gold/silver at this point is way overvalued, just the symptom of what this article is all about.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#495

Post by bthallplz »

christkv wrote: post #489

I find it crazy that people are so obsessed with the current administration they want the world economy to crash. I can tell you that in a current climate a complete world economy crash is going to play out very very badly politically all over the world. I have a real bad feeling it will be a replay of the 30s.

I wasn't aware that there are people who want it to crash. I've just been getting the feeling that no one understands why it isn't crashing or hasn't crashed yet amidst a bunch of really destabilizing policies.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#496

Post by llm_nerd »

oceanplexian wrote: post #403
torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

> The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon Unfortunately, the data doesn't back this up. The US economy is actually one of the least trade-dependent nations in the world. 27% of GDP is trade-oriented (The value of imports and exports as a function of GDP), while the global average is 63%. The US is so developed, that even if the country was completely cut off from the world and operated as an…

>The US is so developed, that even if the country was completely cut off from the world and operated as an internal economy it would still remain the world's largest.

That's a pretty enormous assumption. The US economy tends to crash into a smouldering ruin on the tiniest fluctuation in the inputs. The notion that you could abolish 27% of the real GDP and everything else just continues is not reality based. The US is barrelling towards a natural debt limit and that alone is going to be utter catastrophe for an economy that is fuelled by an insane amount of debt spending. The fact that some of the cons, like Trump and Graham, are trying to extract as much as they can as quickly as they can is telling enough.

The US economy is a tenuous mirage. Like Americans constantly love showing the fun charts demonstrating that various backwater, poor, Methville states with negligible business or industry have a higher GDP / capita than most developed nations. Sure they do.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#497

Post by sandworm101 »

torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

>> Should the US become an unfriendly power to the rest of the western world, it will find the demand for its currency plummeting, which I don't want to outline is a big issue.

For those who want to return the US to the haydays of manufacturing, the days of cheap steel and people working in mills, a rock-bottom dollar is a necessary first step. To sell widgets, the US dollar needs to be low. And to get workers into low-wage mill jobs the population needs to be hungry.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#498

Post by cbdevidal »

maxglute wrote: post #370
cbdevidal wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is another type of demand that I rarely see mentioned. Not only does the United States owe trillions of US dollars, other nations do, as well. They hold many trillions worth of loans denominated in US dollars. They must be repaid in US dollars and not in any other currency. And not just to the United States but to other nations, as well. South Africa owes US dollars to Australia, Australia owes US dollars to Br…

>They must be repaid in US dollars IMO this one of those cases where dollars is ultimately benchmark than requirement, IOU/settlement forms can always be restructured/renegotiated if USD is no longer lender of last resort, i.e. alternative payment systems enables take it or leave it deals in medium/long term. USD/reserve status snowballed because US controlled techstack postwar which US leveraged (along with military…

> alternative payment systems enables take it or leave it deals in medium/long term.

Assuming of course that the lender is interested in the alternative payment currency. Or that the borrower is willing to accept the consequences of default.

I don’t see accepting other forms of currency to be relevant in the short term—there is little use for the Yuan outside of China, for example. I suppose creditors can use them to buy more trinkets, or trade for dollars with people who want more trinkets.

And defaults can happen at any time, but the credit rating system is still widely respected.

Things can certainly change, but I doubt overnight.

> It's why PRC is now using their 3T USD surplus to basically do their own shadow USD lending without IMF conditionalities... countries now don't need to buy USD from US.

So they’re using US dollars, not Yuan.

That trend is changing; before 2021, most of China’s loans were in USD. After COVID, loans denominated in RMB have grown to 20%.

Again, I can see how that would change conditions in the long term, but not overnight.

I am not optimistic for the dollar in the long term but I used to fear waking up one morning to hyperinflation. Not anymore.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#499

Post by JKCalhoun »

Ma8ee wrote: post #387
JKCalhoun wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still, he'll be gone one day and I am going to be all in on that day. It'll all be hockey-sticks from that moment on.

He'll be gone. The trust in the US won't come back. If your constitution and political system allow such a moron to wreak so much havoc in such a little time, why would we ever trust you again?

I don't disagree. I'm referring specially to the (famously short-sighted) stock market.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#500

Post by twoodfin »

shimman wrote: post #332
twoodfin wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ensure that stored wealth is best re-invested in the economy at large Pretty sure the vast, vast bulk of wealth held by the richest US households is indeed “reinvested in the economy at large”. Where do you think it is instead?

Supporting companies that profit off of misery, reduce human meaningfulness, those that innovate the surveillance state; why is it so hard to support policies like giving US school children free breakfast + lunch, medicare for all, public housing, universal childcare, federally mandated paid time off, universal higher education + vocational training, and a public jobs program (all things that have 70-90% voter approv…

I dunno, I love my iPhone, especially when I use it to take photos of my kids.

Amazon is pretty great, too.

Also schoolchildren in my state have had free school breakfast & lunch since Covid.

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