Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon • Hacker News Board

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#361

Post by YZF » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:37 AM UTC

panarky wrote: post #270

SllX wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Should the US become an unfriendly power to the rest of the western world, it will find the demand for its currency plummeting, which I don't want to outline is a big issue. Right now this is much more of a maybe, possibly, eventually, over a long enough time horizon. As of the end of 2025, USD still made up 57% of foreign reserves vs 20% for the Euro and 3% for the Chinese renminbi. Nearly all commodities are stil…

The international "rules-based order" is a good idea when most nations play by the rules most of the time, and when the most powerful at least pretend to follow the same rules as everyone else. A world order based on rules makes it possible to live at a much higher level of abstraction. Abstractions like rule of law, democracy, government currencies and stock exchanges are intangible and imaginary. They're mostly jus…

The rules based order is mostly a fabrication of recent history. Perhaps between the fall of the Soviet Union, China becoming more open, and the general peace and prosperity it seemed like it existed.

Politics between countries has always been around interests. Countries have no interest in giving up their sovereignty. They may pretend to respect these "rules" when it suits them and then ignore them when it doesn't. Everyone is focused on how "bad" the US is but a) the US has always more or less done whatever it wants b) Russia and China (and many others) have never even pretended to play or accept these "rules".

Canada's Carney whines about "international order" when just a few years ago China simply abducted Canadians in response to the supposed "orderly" arrest of the Huawei CFO to be extradited to the US. So Canada basically abducts the CFO of a major Chinese company and China abducts Canadians in retaliation and that's a rules based order to who exactly? And we can put together an endless list of an endless number of countries. So when exactly was there ever a rules based order except as a tool for countries to bully each other and for the poorer dictator led countries to try and get a seat at the table because they can vote in the UN general assembly.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#362

Post by Braxton1980 » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:37 AM UTC

refurb wrote: post #274

Espressosaurus wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much of America’s growth since the 40s is attributable to its hegemony, stability, and the emergence of USD as the reserve currency of the world? And where other developed, stable nations started dropping in population, the US continued growing thanks to immigration and its center as a research Mecca. All of those are being unwound as we speak, and it’ll take decades to prove to the world that any trade policy an…

The US became the wealthiest country on a per capita income basis in the 1880’s, over taking the UK. The US was quite isolationist up until the end of WW2, so I’d argue global hegemony isn’t that important when it comes to economic performance.

What about the Spanish American war (1898), the Philippine-American war(1899), and World War One (1917)

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#363

Post by peyton » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:39 AM UTC

YZF wrote: post #354

torginus wrote: post #84

I feel like there's some credibility to 'this time it's different' The US economy depends on the country's position of world hegemon - the US dollar is the world's main reserve currency, the US enforces international order and trade rules via its military strength, it dominates technology and culture through 'US defaultism'. I dont think AI even factors in to this. The US economy is priced for global reach - if it ma…

This time is not different in the sense that at some point crazy valuations get a reality check. But that's not "the crash of the US economy", that's a stock market crash, and those will happen (tell me when - I'd also like to know) and they also tend to crash all around the world. The US economy has had ups and downs and I'm sure will still have but despite the wishful thinking of Marxists it's still the least worst…

> I don't think it's even in China's interest to see a large decline of the US, after all they're a big customer.

Yeah aren’t they just Leninist but using us as a signal of what to make? I thought rough shape of the scheme was you get to build a factory using free loans in bullshit money that buys rice and apartments but can’t leave the country, then use that to get real money you can take elsewhere by making shit Americans want to buy. You can’t trade the bullshit money for real money without the factory step.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#364

Post by edm0nd » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:44 AM UTC

deadbabe wrote: post #272

nofriend wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it was at 120 and now it's at 85. yes it's back to where it was a few weeks ago

Why do people say this… ok so you buy at 120 and now it’s back at 85, no big deal that’s the same as a few weeks ago!?

yes, that is correct.

most people are long on silver and gold. who cares if there was a slight correction.

I bought the bulk of my silver in the $20-30 range and am still buying. I bought on the way up, I bought at $120, I'll buy at $85. The price at the time I buy really doesnt matter to me. Only when I sell will it matter.

I hope to cash out and buy ~150 acres of land with it to hunt on and live on.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#365

Post by phendrenad2 » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:45 AM UTC

If you're going to chart-gaze, you need to have a healthy skepticism about the chart itself - is what it's measuring still meaningful? Every chart is an isolation of variables in an ocean of variables. The shark attack / ice cream sales chart will mysteriously stop working when everyone is on Ozempic and stops craving icecream! Likewise, there's a very real possibility that "inverted yield curve means recession imminent" logic only works during a particular era of USA dominance in the world, which we have thoroughly left behind. Food for thought, I hope.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#366

Post by edm0nd » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:47 AM UTC

ahartmetz wrote: post #197

torginus wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why people expect the Chinese economy to crash - they can basically make everything, a lot of which is internationally competitive, they can trade for the resources they don't have with the goods that they do - with basically the whole world dependent on them. They have a huge internal base of poor people, and lifting them to a middle class level will alone fuel domestic demand for years to come. T…

The Chinese economy is indisputably strong and real, but rumor has it that its reported growth numbers have been inflated in the last couple of years. And why wouldn't they be - there is an autocratic government whose justification is that what they are doing is increasing economic success. No success is not an option.

Yeah basically every single academic and economist knows the Chinese government lies about its GDP numbers and pumps out fake stats. Its the Chinese way.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#367

Post by mmooss » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:47 AM UTC

panarky wrote: post #270

SllX wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Should the US become an unfriendly power to the rest of the western world, it will find the demand for its currency plummeting, which I don't want to outline is a big issue. Right now this is much more of a maybe, possibly, eventually, over a long enough time horizon. As of the end of 2025, USD still made up 57% of foreign reserves vs 20% for the Euro and 3% for the Chinese renminbi. Nearly all commodities are stil…

The international "rules-based order" is a good idea when most nations play by the rules most of the time, and when the most powerful at least pretend to follow the same rules as everyone else. A world order based on rules makes it possible to live at a much higher level of abstraction. Abstractions like rule of law, democracy, government currencies and stock exchanges are intangible and imaginary. They're mostly jus…

> Abstractions like rule of law, democracy, government currencies and stock exchanges are intangible and imaginary. They're mostly just figments of collective belief.

> But when we devolve from the rules-based order to the old order of pure power and might-makes-right, kings and dictators, when there's no more collective belief that the rules apply to the rich and powerful, then the tower of abstractions collapses, and we're back to the cold, hard, brutal and difficult real world.

Many have absorbed and believe the argument of the might-makes-right crowd that their vision is 'real' and their enemies' vision is 'imaginary'. Unless people believe in what they seek, they are lost.

There's nothing imaginary about it; that theory is paper thin and doesn't survive simple examination. Obviously, humans are social animals that live in groups, have powerful intellects, and therefore have tremendous ability to cooperate and work together toward greater good; we've done it many, many times. Freedom and democracy have appealed powerfully to people worldwide, in a tremendously wide variety of cultures. That model was created by people who had experienced WWI and WWII; they knew more of your 'reality' than probably you or I ever will, and with that knowledge and experience they created this order.

And the greater good long predates that; religions and similar ethical codes based on the greater good long predate modern democracy and the rules-based order. Rules-based orders predate it. The Gospels in the New Testament are an easy, very familiar example, from 2,000 years ago (and a significant basis of modern freedom and democracy). Similar is true for abstractions like law, government, justice, etc.

We all are biologically the same, essentially, as the best of humanity and the worst - both are in all of us. It's our choice, our moral choice, what we do. That is also a fundamental that long predates the post-war order, democracy, the Englightenment, etc. Inevitability is a cheap tactic long used by those whose ideas are undesireable and don't withstand scrutiny.

Our choice is easier than those who survived WWII, and their predecessors. Our ancestors gave us the tools, the institutions, etc. They had to build them from nothing for a skeptical world.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#368

Post by enraged_camel » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC

pfannkuchen wrote: post #337

themafia wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't have to eat them. You just have to erect significant barriers to hoarding wealth, particularly in off shore devices, and you have to create constant pressure to ensure that stored wealth is best re-invested in the economy at large. These aren't even hard problems. Until you meet someone in Congress. Then it suddenly seems hopeless.

Isn’t hoarded wealth a no-op? It just reduces the supply of whatever they are hoarding. Would the people benefit from redistributing the things they are hoarding? Corporate stock that pays little to no dividends, mainly? It’s not like they are hoarding wheat. I don’t really get what people think will happen if we redistribute the stored wealth. All wealth is, is a claim to direct labor and materials, the magnitude of…

>> Isn’t hoarded wealth a no-op? It just reduces the supply of whatever they are hoarding.

It’s not. Wealth creates political power, which the wealthy wield to stack the odds in their own favor at the expense of everyone else.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#369

Post by vkou » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC

datsci_est_2015 wrote: post #302

NDizzle wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think JD Vance has plenty of charisma.

Definitely an odd duck out in the context of Trump, Obama, Bush II, Clinton, Bush, Reagan. Also remember it’s not just being charismatic, but charismatic enough to keep people distracted from increasingly unpopular reactionary politics that defy even conservative beliefs (e.g. gun control, speech policing, deficit spending, plenary executive).

Gun control (for minorities), speech policing (for liberals), deficit spending (when they are in charge), and a plenary executive (when Obama isn't president) are core conservative beliefs.

They say that they don't like those things, but you can't listen to what politicians and talking heads on TV say. Politicians and talking heads lie all the fucking time. You have to look at what people do.

They aren't stupid in not understanding the hypocrisy.

We are... for thinking that they don't know that they are hypocrites.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#370

Post by maxglute » Sat, Jan 31, 2026, 5:58 AM UTC

cbdevidal wrote: post #273

maxglute wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>demand is still there today Not all demand the same. There are broadly 2 types of USD buyers 1. price insensitive: sovereign banks, who buys for liquidity/storage 2. price sensitive: hedge funds, private buyer who buys returns Type 1 buyers are bailing out of treasury. Type 1 are marginal buyers, the close auction regardless or rate, this keeps rates low -> debt servicing low. They artificially depress yield to non…

There is another type of demand that I rarely see mentioned. Not only does the United States owe trillions of US dollars, other nations do, as well. They hold many trillions worth of loans denominated in US dollars. They must be repaid in US dollars and not in any other currency. And not just to the United States but to other nations, as well. South Africa owes US dollars to Australia, Australia owes US dollars to Br…

>They must be repaid in US dollars

IMO this one of those cases where dollars is ultimately benchmark than requirement, IOU/settlement forms can always be restructured/renegotiated if USD is no longer lender of last resort, i.e. alternative payment systems enables take it or leave it deals in medium/long term.

USD/reserve status snowballed because US controlled techstack postwar which US leveraged (along with military hegemony) to USD controlling primary energy (petrodollar). Civilization/modernity was locked behind USD. Money followed existential goods provider, that's the real USD / unipolarity moat. There's no take it / leave it from US company scrip because leaving eurodollar system = technical default (most usd loans hardcoded on newyork/english law) from eurodollar western financial system = death sentence. Once that lock/dependency erodes all kinds of force majeure geopolitics can rationalize breaking dollar contracts. AKA multipolarity.

If alternate techstack/payment systems pops up and reach tipping point, country A can just say to country B who only wants USD (due to alignment or whatever), I don't have enough USD, here's RMB & cips/Brics+ & mbridge basket of equivalent value. This geopolitical layer, if BRIC+ can offer fossil, food without US and PRC can offer renewable energy, capital goods, consumer goods, technology, including 80% as good semi and civil aviation... etc if chokepoint goods are no longer exclusively under USD perview, then USD enforcement mechanism simply dies.

If we're talking about loans/aid, IMF is really pittance, low hundreds of billions. It's why PRC is now using their 3T USD surplus to basically do their own shadow USD lending without IMF conditionalities... countries now don't need to buy USD from US. And somehow PRC currently lending / providing swaplines with their USD at lower rates than US treasury. Incidentally, this dollar recycling also lowers demand for new USD bonds, further reduce type1 margin buyers. This circles back to other nations own trillions of USD to each other... when you remove type1s, you're left with type2 private sector / non bank financial institutions - these are the buys where each USD bought increases triffin burden, i.e. they are the exorbitant curse / payday loans traps that makes USD reserve more expensive to maintain. Their demand is a trap, not a benefit.