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The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

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Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#491
post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

General data: hundreds of billions of tokens per week are running through Deepseek, Qwen, GLM models solely by those users going through OpenRouter. People aren't doing that for laughs, or "non-real-world use", that's all for work and/or prod. If you look at the market share graph, at the start of the year the big 3 OpenAI/Anthropic/Google had 72% market share on there. Now it's 45%. And this isn't just because of Gr…

Honestly though, hundreds of billions of tokens per week really isn't that much. My tiny little profitable SaaS business that can't even support my family yet is doing 10-20 billion tokens per month on Gemini Flash 2.5.

Looks like over the last month just Deepseek, Qwen and Z-AI did about 2.8 trillion tokens, given your metric the equivalent to about 187 tiny little profitable SaaS businesses, and that's only those who go through OpenRouter. To me that's very significant.

Also, congrats on the traction ! Being profitable enough to support a family is 95% area-CoL and family size so not sure about that one, but if you're doing that many tokens you've clearly got a good number of active users. We're at a similar point but only 100-200 million tokens per month, strictly B2C app though so that might explain it, tends to be less token heavy.

2.5 Flash is still fantastic especially if you're really input heavy, we use it too for many things, but we've found several open weights models to have better price/quality for certain tasks. It's nice that 2.5 Flash is fast but then speed is most important for longer outputs and for those Flash is relatively expensive. DeepSeek v3.1 is all-around cheaper, for one example.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#492
post #421
post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Microsoft is worth $4T, so if you buy one MSFT share only ~3% of that is invested in OpenAI. Even if OpenAI outperforms everyone's expectations (which at this point are already sky high), a tiny swing in some other Microsoft division will completely erase your gains.

Markets trade on a magical growth valuation. Nothing you said matters at all at the moment and won’t for about 5 or so years. People are going to eat shit over and over when they keep talking like this, just look at what NVDA did today. It’s not going to stop.

Fiat currencies are becoming meme tokens at this point. I think we are in a hyperinflation era and consumer price growth will simply have to catch-up to the stock market growth rate because wealth isn't being created right now, it's just being inflated.

All of those who are investing in stock market and thinking they are becoming rich might just realize that those were the paper gains when they will still not be able to afford anything with all the big numbers in their investment accounts.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#493

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah this is not the case at all lol. I actually find Azure to be far more intuitive after suffering through AWS and a little GCP. It certainly seems more stable in US regions than AWS. One thing I will say is the Azure documentation is some of the most cumbersome to navigate I've ever experienced, there is a dearth of information in there, you just have to know how to find it.

Doesn't a dearth mean a lack of?

Probably. I guess I meant a shit ton, but written in a series of confusing "choose your own adventure" style bursts of 40 new browser tabs to figure anything out.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#494
post #491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly though, hundreds of billions of tokens per week really isn't that much. My tiny little profitable SaaS business that can't even support my family yet is doing 10-20 billion tokens per month on Gemini Flash 2.5.

Looks like over the last month just Deepseek, Qwen and Z-AI did about 2.8 trillion tokens, given your metric the equivalent to about 187 tiny little profitable SaaS businesses, and that's only those who go through OpenRouter. To me that's very significant. Also, congrats on the traction ! Being profitable enough to support a family is 95% area-CoL and family size so not sure about that one, but if you're doing that m…

Google just said yesterday that they're doing 7 billion tokens per minute for their customers via API. Crazy.

Thanks for the kudos, it's going well so far. But I'm in NYC and have kids, so...the bar is high :)

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh dear lord, GCP could be the intuitive one?! I have not used anything else but, dear lord, that's shocking and not at all surprising at the same time.

Any speculation on why none of them can make a UI and UX that is not 100% completely shit and makes you feel miserable and stressed out? Couldn’t they just throw money at the problem? Or fire the criminals who designed it?

a) Design is super hard when your product MUST do a lot (and GCP definitely has to do a lot)

b) You design for the audience. The complexity that person-who-would-ever-use-GCP will deal with is far beyond what the average internet user would ever endure.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing context and/or didn't read OP's comment. He said "because". It will happen because that's the only way to reach profit. That's why it will happen.

Yeah, exactly. The context here was about the profitability part of OP's comment. The parent said "plenty of businesses fail to find a way to make a profit," and my point was that OP's statement doesn't contradict that. OP was saying they'll need AGI to be profitable, not that they're guaranteed to become profitable. Sure, they phrased it as "they will reach AGI," but that's clearly tongue-in-cheek...the underlying i…

'the underlying idea is "they better reach AGI, because that's the only way they could make money."'

Yeah, that's what I was going for.

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