Earlier quoted context omitted.
AGI as a PR stunt for OpenAI is becoming a meme.
We're just a year away from full self driving!
And then just another year until self selfing and we will have come full circle
The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
161–170 of 496 posts
Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
#162> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?
Most people didn't think we were anywhere close to LLM's five years ago. The capabilities we have now were expected to be a decades away, depending on who you talked to. [EDIT: sorry, I should have said 10 years ago... recent years get too compressed in my head and stuff from 2020 still feels like it was 2 years ago!] So I think a lot of people now don't see what the path is to AGI, but also realize they hadn't seen…
I don't think AGI will happen with LLMs. For example, can an LLM drive a car?? I know it's a silly question but it's a fact.
Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
#163Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are a lot of humans that can’t drive a car (well). Part of the problem with “AGI” is everyone has their own often totally arbitrary yard sticks.
The "G" part of AGI implies it should be able to hit all the arbitrary yard sticks
That is stupid. It would be possible to be infinitely arbitrary to the point of “AGI” never being reachable by some yard sticks while still performing most viable labor.
Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
#164> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?
Yes.
As a proxy, you can look at storage. The human brain is estimated at 3.2Pb of storage. The cost of disk space drops by half every 2-3 years. As of this writing, the cost is about $10 / Tb [0]. If we assume about 3 halvings, by 2030 that cost will be around $2.50 / Tb, which means that to purchase a computer roughly the storage size of a human brain, it will cost just under $6k.
The $6k price point means that (high-end) consumers will have economic access to compute commensurate with human cognition.
This is a proxy argument, using disk space as the proxy for the rest of the "intelligence" stack, so the assumption is that processing power will follow suite, also be not as expensive, and that the software side will develop to keep up with the hardware. There's no convincing indication that these assumptions are false.
You can do your own back of the envelope calculation, taking into account generalizations of Moore's law to whatever aspect of storage, compute or power usage you think is most important. Exponential progress is fast and so an order of magnitude misjudgement translates to a 2-3 year lag.
Whether you believe it or not, the above calculation and, I assume, other calculations that are similar, all land on, or near, the 2030 year as the inflection point.
Not to belabor the point but until just a few years ago, conversational AI was thought to be science fiction. Image generation, let alone video generation, was thought by skeptics to be decades, if not centuries, away. We now have generative music, voice cloning, automatic 3d generation, character animation and the list goes on.
One might argue that it's all "slop" but for anyone paying attention, the slop is the "hello world" of AGI. To even get to the slop point represents such a staggering achievement that it's hard to understate.
Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
#165> Microsoft holds an investment in OpenAI Group PBC valued at approximately $135 billion, representing roughly 27 percent on an as-converted diluted basis It seems like Microsoft stock is then the most straightforward way to invest in OpenAI pre-IPO. This also confirms the $500 billion valuation making OpenAI the most valuable private startup in the world. Now many of the main AI companies have decent ownership by pu…
It’s odd to me in clouds you excluded AWS.
Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
#166> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?
I think AGI isn't the main thing. The agreement gives msft the right to develop their own foundation models, OpenAI to stop using Azure for running & training their foundation models. All this while msft still retains significant IP ownership.
In my opinion, whether AGI happens or not isn't the main point of this. It's the fact that OpenAI and MSFT can go their separate ways on infra & foundation models while still preserving MSFT's IP interests.
Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
#167Regarding LLMs we're in a race to the bottom. Chinese models perform similarly with much higher efficiency; refer to kimi-k2 and plenty of others. ClopenAI is extremely overvalued, and AGI is not around the corner because among 20T+ tokens trained on it still generates 0 novel output. Try asking for ASP.NET Core .MapOpenAPI() instead of the pre .net9 swashbuckle version. You get nothing. It's not in the training data…
They perform similarly on benchmarks, which can be fudged to arbitrarily high numbers by just including the Q&A into the training data at a certain frequency or post-training on it. I have not been impressed with any of the DeepSeek models in real-world use.
Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
#168Earlier quoted context omitted.
C# and .NET have a bigger market share than what gets talked about in trendy circles
C#/.NET are nice. Azure/Microsoft Cloud not so nice. Idk, maybe I have some bias due to familiarity, but I find the GCP admin and tools to be so much more intuitive than the Azure (and AWS too, for that matter) counterparts.
Oh dear lord, GCP could be the intuitive one?! I have not used anything else but, dear lord, that's shocking and not at all surprising at the same time.
Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
#169Earlier quoted context omitted.
Jesus, we've gone from Eliza and Bayes Spam Filters to being able to hold an "intelligent" conversation with a bot that can write code like: "make me a sandwich" => "ok, making sandwich.py, adding test, keeping track of a todo list, validating tests, etc..." We might not _quite_ be at the era of "I'm sorry I can't let you do that Dave...", but on the spectrum, and from the perspective of a lay-person, we're waaaaay c…
I think "we" have accidentally cracked language from a computational perspective. The embedding of knowledge is incidental and we're far away from anything that "Generally Intelligent", let alone Advanced in that. LLMs do tend to make documented knowledge very searchable which is nice. But if you use these models everyday to do work of some kind that becomes pretty obvious that they aren't nearly as intelligent as th…
Completely agree (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45627451) - LLMs are like the human-understood output of a hypothetical AGI, 'we' haven't cracked the knowledge & reasoning 'general intelligence' piece yet, imo, the bit that would hypothetically come before the LLM, feeding the information to it to convey to the human. I think that's going to turn out to be a different piece of the puzzle.
Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
#170> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?
Maybe in a few decades, people will look back at how naive it was to talk about AGI at this point, just like the last few times since the 1960s whenever AI had a (perceived) breakthrough. It's always a few decades away.