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Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

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Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why build rental units for poor people when you can sell to oligarchs who want an asset to park their money in? As with everything else in a capilistic economy: because there is profit to be made. Same as we have very expensive top-of-the-line smartphones and very cheap but functional ones, a truly free market housing economy would provide cheap housing for the poor. The reason why we don't see that happening is be…

> As with everything else in a capilistic economy: because there is profit to be made. As someone who lives in Toronto, Canada where there's a lot of condo construction, and little-to-no purpose-built rental construction, the "capitalist economy" has decided that rentals are generally not worth it. At least when it comes to builders: plenty of people are buying condos and renting them out instead of living in them, b…

I think you are missing the point: if there is "little-to-no purpose-built rental construction" I guarantee it's because of laws and regulations preventing companies from fulfilling demand. Think whether people or companies can purchase any land and build whatever they want on it. No they can, local governments must zone it as residential, and then they usually have strict restrictions on how many units can be built on each area, licenses, permissions, building codes...

You are right to complain about this issue, but don't blame free markets, because they are not free: government intervention prevent the necessary competition for the market to work and fulfill demand.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#492

Related: NYC commercial mortgage backed securities are going to crash https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RX1uzbAOnXc Is it possible to short mortgage backed securities?

https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/5kokhg0zKwun440whmUweA/...

https://www.pimco.com/en-us/resources/education/understandin...

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/08/cds....

https://www.quora.com/Can-retail-investors-buy-credit-defaul...

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#493
post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm taking a look here (visualization is crummy, but there's a list below) https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/donor-state... There are only ten donor states in 2019: - Connecticut (- $4,000) - New Jersey (- $2,368) - Massachusetts (- $2,343) - New York (- $1,792) - North Dakota (- $720) - Illinois (- $364) - New Hampshire (- $234) - Washington (- $184) - Nebraska (- $164) - Colorado (- $95) And these ar…

The source of your data is a SUNY Rockefeller Institute of Government report: https://rockinst.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/1-7-19b-Bala... . Scrolling down to page 14 shows a nice visual that completely supports my contention. The two surprises to me are ND and California, but the rest essentially show that taker states tend to have higher populations of individuals who are opposed to the federal government spendi…

Thanks for sharing this. What I see on page 14 is a map of the same data I shared. It shows that there's a small number of net producer states, and a larger number of net takers. If you look at page 17, you'll see that most states actually fall into the low tax and low spending quadrant. So while they may need to raise taxes by some amount, they're hardly being hypocritical the way it seems you want to paint them.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Especially good if the converted office space also provides a good work from home environment. Or... you know... just give homeless people housing?

I want a free house too.

Just call your daddy

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article linked by the comment I replied to stated this: > Smith is one of hundreds of residents placed at Terminus House in Harlow by councils in and around London, often many miles from everything and everybody they once knew. I'm not familiar with the specifics of UK subsidized housing, but it sure sounds like the residents were placed in this building by government.

Yeah, you're not and totally misunderstanding how that works. Councils used to be the biggest house builders in the UK. Then the neoliberals decided that was silly and the free-market could sort it. So they banned councils from building houses in the 80s. House builds plummeted from 300k per year to 30k per year. Plus they forced the council to get rid of their affordable housing by letting people buy their council h…

As others have noted, this is not the opposite of what I think, or what I argued. I'm saying at the end of the day (without making any comment on neoliberal policies) poor people were dumped into, and importantly, concentrated into this building. There is no 'free market' involved here when the residents had no choice. This is very different from converting office space to apartments and putting those out to rent for individuals.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Especially good if the converted office space also provides a good work from home environment. Or... you know... just give homeless people housing?

I want a free house too.

> I want a free house too.

Well yes, for many of the young working class - rent is eating up over 2/3rd of their paychecks.

We are being scammed by the Bourgeoisie with inherited wealth.

This explains our situation well imo:

-

"So where did our land system come from?

Weirdly enough, the land system that we have today has its origins in a problem specific to medieval kings, which is ‘how do I fund military campaigns and defence, without paying to keep a standing army?’

And it was William the Conqueror who perfected the answer. It was a piece of paper. And on that piece of paper was basically an agreement between the Crown and a noble, saying ‘if you provide men for military campaigns when I ask, in exchange I will grant you a monopoly over your own private fiefdom, where you can levy as high taxes as people can bear to pay’.

So effectively — rent is the original tax, paid via lords to the King.

In fact the word ‘feudal’ derives from the latin word feudalis — for ‘fee’. In other words, rent. So the whole system of government by which the Normans ruled over the Anglo Saxons was based on rent.

If you’re a King, there’s only really three groups of people you’re scared of: other kings, your family, and your nobles. So over time landowners managed to engineer a set of concessions, whereby increasingly taxes were levied directly on people and business, leaving them (the lords) as the owners of a monopoly right to extract privatised land tax.

So what you’re left with is a set of power relations in society: an enforced system of servitude and control. As the economist Henry George pointed out, it is essentially a diluted version of slavery.

“Ownership of land always gives ownership of people… Place one hundred people on an island from which there is no escape. Make one of them the absolute owner of the others — or the absolute owner of the soil. It will make no difference — either to owner or to the others — which one you choose. Either way, one individual will be the absolute master of the other ninety-nine.”

Fast forward a few hundred years, to post-civil-war America and that’s exactly what played out. The plantation owners could no longer own slaves, so what they said is ‘Ok, I’ll pay you, say, $2 dollars a day’ — but by the way, I own the land, and the rent is… $2 a day.’’. Which, incidentally, led to the invention of a clever invention called a ‘chattel house’ which was a kind of kit house that gave families of plantation workers the ability to relocate to try to escape exploitative landlords."

Fast forward again to today, and land is still the fundamental mechanism of racial inequity. To be blunt, all across the UK and the US, there are tenants with black and brown skin paying rent to landlords and mortgage lenders with white skin. Or commuting for hours. Or both.

I imagine all of you have seen the speech made a couple of weeks ago by a young American writer called Kimberly Jones — if you haven’t, do — it’s absolutely the most eloquent piece of public speaking I’ve seen in a long time (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llci8MVh8J4). In it she uses this incredible image of getting white people to imagine what it feels like to play “four hundred rounds of Monopoly” with the game rigged against you, enforced by violence. There’s an interesting backstory here, that you may know, which is that the game of monopoly was first invented by a woman called Elizabeth Magie — and originally called ‘The Landlords Game’ and it was created so that… basically one day someone could make exactly the speech that Kimberly Jones just did.

So, broadly speaking — and I’m simplifying here — there were two positions in this power diagram. Tenant and landlord.

And over time that piece of paper became a tradable asset, as well as an inheritable one: so you can literally buy the right to extract taxes from people. And it’s amazing to me that we don’t find that more weird than we do — it’s right there hidden in plain sight in the language we use: landlord.

But such an extreme overclass/underclass diagram is politically hard to sustain. So, over time we saw the slow emergence of a middle position, which is for those who could get together just enough money to buy their own freedom from rent. Again, that’s why we have the word ‘Freehold’; it’s not free as in ‘no cost’ it’s free as in, ‘liberty’."

Source: https://medium.com/@AlastairParvin/a-new-land-contract-684c3...

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"There are many kinds of monopoly, from utilities to pharmaceutical patents, but the greatest – the ‘mother of all monopolies’ as Churchill described it – is land. Land rents are a weird leftover of the medieval feudal system: a privatised location tax that is suffocating every Westernised economy today."

"It is worth remembering that there is no political argument —Left, Liberal or Right — that even attempts to justify economic rent-seeking on the basis of principle. You will not find one in any book. Adam Smith was against it, Karl Marx was against it, Keynes was against it, Friedman was against it. Even Ayn Rand was against it. Economic rent-seeking survives only in the dark, by obfuscation, distraction, corruption and perverse incentives. It endures only because it has not been part our political language for the last century, and in the tussle of everyday life, we are all susceptible to quietly putting our own short-term convenience ahead of our principles if we can get away with it (then justifying it to ourselves later)."

Source: https://medium.com/@AlastairParvin/progress-again-6f6213bdcd...

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#497

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Commerical real estate != residential, I wouldn't get your hopes up unless demand drops, which it totally could.

It seems unlikely that a commercial real estate crash wouldn't have second-order effects on residential. After all, if none of this commercial space is getting used, there is less of a reason to be interesting in the residential housing that surrounds said commercial space.

We're seeing a shift in demand across different sectors of the real estate market, not a destruction in demand. The market for office space is cratering, as is the market for 1BR apts/condos in dense urban cores. But most of the people who would've occupied those buildings are still working, they're just working from home. The market for SFHs (particularly large suburban ones with home offices) is exploding. I'm seeing some in Mountain View and the SF peninsula go for ~$350-500K (up to 15-18%) over asking.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#498
post #35
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This is mainly a concern for one year leases that were renewed this March/April/May, which won't be renewed in 2021 Do leases tend to get renewed in Q2?

the scope of the pandemic wasn't yet clear in Q1

But the decision to terminate happens when the lease expires at any point after the pandemic happened, not exactly as the pandemic started. If you signed a 1-year lease in 2019Q3 and then realized that you're going to permanent WFH in 2020Q2, you let the lease expire in 2020Q3 and count yourself lucky. So the impact of this should be spread across the year following lockdowns/wfh, not all concentrated in 2021Q2.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#499
post #443
post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying there isn't some desire among employees but most companies do not want to pay taxes in 50 states. I don't think the vast majority of workers can simply move without changing employers.

You are an engineering manager for XYZ Corp. Your boss asks you whether employees should be able to work out of state, and still be equally productive. After during research, you come to the conclusion that yes, productivity won’t fall. However, you note that finance has flagged the payrolls issue. Your boss tells payroll to sort out multi state taxes.

>Your boss tells payroll to sort out multi state taxes.

If only the world was so simple, haha.

Re: Nearly 12M Square Feet of Vacant Office Space in S.F

#500
post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a very underrated comment. Many people romanticize the work from home no commute in a rural area, but do not be surprised to find corporations taking advantage of your new found anchor.

Also consider the expanding talent pool and competition. I live in Michigan. I would love to work with Microsoft or Google, because they do some very interesting work. However relocating across the country, away from established friends and family, isn't something I can currently consider. Average developer salaries for my area are between 60-100k, so if Microsoft can offer 120k+, a lot of (great) devs in my area wou…

Having been present for outsourcing attempts that went badly, I can say that generally they will not (did not) go well. I don't know if it was that the devs were not good, the communication loop was bad, they were supporting too many outsourcing customers at once, or what. But, on multiple occasions I've seen it not turn out well. That ship sailed long before the pandemic.

So, the question is, will it work any better in Michigan? Quite possibly; the timezone and language differences are much less. Plus, if you worked for Microsoft or Google, you probably wouldn't try to also work for 2-3 other employers at the same time. But, if the issue was simply that remote work impedes good communication, the results will be similar.

My guess, it will sometimes work. I guess we'll find out soon.

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