Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence • Hacker News Board

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#481

Post by torcete » Wed, May 27, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC

> Spain's Consumer Rights Ministry temporarily banned so-called prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi [..]

Why a ministry has the authority to do so? What I don't like about my country, and the whole UE, is the lack of democracy. And this is a good example.

A democracy needs to have real separations of powers. The legislative body creates a law, and the judiciary, based on that law, will decide on banning or not the online gambling site.

A ministry belongs to the executive branch of the Estate. It is not up to them to decide whether something is illegal or not.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#482

Post by the_gipsy » Wed, May 27, 2026, 11:45 AM UTC

torcete wrote: post #481

> Spain's Consumer Rights Ministry temporarily banned so-called prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi [..] Why a ministry has the authority to do so? What I don't like about my country, and the whole UE, is the lack of democracy. And this is a good example. A democracy needs to have real separations of powers. The legislative body creates a law, and the judiciary, based on that law, will decide on banning or not t…

There is nothing undemocratic about this.

The law was already there, a minister in Spain does not only propose or vote on laws, but has quite some executive influence. This has always been so and is nothing unusual.

You can't really operate this stuff in a vacuum, otherwise it would take years to take any actions against illegal gambling, way too late.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#483

Post by itsnowandnever » Wed, May 27, 2026, 11:49 AM UTC

epolanski wrote: post #450

itsnowandnever wrote: post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

in what way do they violate Dodd-Frank?

The DF clearly states that there cannot be contracts on topics of war, terrorism, assassination, gaming and unlawful activity and in general anything that: - incentivize harmful acts - create manipulation risks - are "contrary to the public interest" So, all these contracts on the topics of US attacks, sports, whether California will burn due to fires, openly violate it. But CFTC's head has publicly stated that they…

Dodd-Frank does not clearly state there cannot be those contracts. Dodd-Frank grants the CFTC jurisdiction to govern those contracts. what you are saying was struck down in court in September 2024 where the judge ruled those contracts are legal but the content, fairness, and quality of such contracts are CFTC jurisdiction.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#484

Post by jimnotgym » Wed, May 27, 2026, 11:50 AM UTC

the_gipsy wrote: post #482

torcete wrote: post #481

> Spain's Consumer Rights Ministry temporarily banned so-called prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi [..] Why a ministry has the authority to do so? What I don't like about my country, and the whole UE, is the lack of democracy. And this is a good example. A democracy needs to have real separations of powers. The legislative body creates a law, and the judiciary, based on that law, will decide on banning or not t…

There is nothing undemocratic about this. The law was already there, a minister in Spain does not only propose or vote on laws, but has quite some executive influence. This has always been so and is nothing unusual. You can't really operate this stuff in a vacuum, otherwise it would take years to take any actions against illegal gambling, way too late.

Agree, the ministry just applied the existing law. Simple.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#485

Post by the_gipsy » Wed, May 27, 2026, 11:52 AM UTC

ceasesurthinko wrote: post #259

Yet blocks the internet completely decimating all necessary services for a couple hours for La Liga futbol. Spain is a backwards country

It's wrong, but also: just stop centralizing on cloudflare. It's just a glorified proxy, do you really need it, or are you marking an enterprise compliance checkbox?

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#486

Post by jimnotgym » Wed, May 27, 2026, 11:53 AM UTC

hackyhacky wrote: post #404

dzhiurgis wrote: post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is it any worse than ads for beer or sugar water?

Until recently, gambling was illegal in most of the United States.

And it is regulated in many (most?) other countries and requires a licence to be a bookmaker. Hence the ban

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#487

Post by jimnotgym » Wed, May 27, 2026, 11:54 AM UTC

bilekas wrote: post #442

> Spain - like other European jurisdictions - considers prediction markets a form of gambling when bets are placed on uncertain outcomes. What is the defense in the US for example that these are not gambling, "bets are placed on uncertain outcomes", it's that close to, if not the definition of gambling ?

There is no difference. Spain just got the right answer before the US

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#488

Post by Fargren » Wed, May 27, 2026, 11:57 AM UTC

RHSeeger wrote: post #390

sebastiennight wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This logic is how we ended up with TSA. "What do you mean, people used to just walk up to planes with their shoes on and a FULL 8-ounce water bottle in hand with barely any physical security?" It's easier to stop incentivizing people to ruin the commons, vs. trying to strengthen the commons against all possible adversarial behavior.

> It's easier to stop incentivizing people to ruin the commons It's impossible. No matter how good of a job you do, there will _always_ be people out to watch it all burn.

Just because it's impossible to solve a problem 100% doesn't mean that it's impossible to improve the state of things. Perfect is the enemy of good. There aren't that many people doing random chaotic damage, and it's not worth it to protect against all their potential harm.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#489

Post by tim333 » Wed, May 27, 2026, 12:09 PM UTC

I can understand them wanting to ban Polymarket et al but it's hard to implement unless you ban all use of cryptocurrency. Once you've done the converting fiat currency to some sort of crypto, all the other transaction can happen anonymously offshore. I've mucked about on Polymarket a bit including betting on Kamala to win of all things.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#490

Post by nwhnwh » Wed, May 27, 2026, 12:17 PM UTC

solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

YC just funded one of these.