Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, nonsensical people like EY don’t think it’s nonsensical.
EY = Eliezer Yudkowsky
Appreciate that you made account just for this. I was well aware of Yudkowsky but even so couldn't parse this "EY" initialism
The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
481–490 of 718 posts
Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
#482Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If the US didn't take that bait it could have made better choices that would have left it in a stronger position militarily long term Like what though? If the problem is that not going to actual war has enabled the MIC to be captured by grifters, then "taking the bait" and going to war should actually help improve that by showing up the grifters and giving us a chance to switch to making stuff that works.
> Pretending they’ll go to war over Taiwan and not doing it is an effective strategy for undermining the US. The bait is for the buildup that promotes the grifters. > An actual war would fix a lot of the grifting in the US as it would align interests We are in agreement. I made these points earlier in this chain. The Iran war doesn't count as the alignment of interest requires an actual threat of being defeated.
> The Iran war doesn't count as the alignment of interest requires an actual threat of being defeated.
That's starting to sound a bit no-true-scotsman. If we need an existential threat to the US, that's not going to happen - realistically China conquering Taiwan or even building an empire around the Pacific would still not be felt as such a threat.
Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
#483Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
#484Earlier quoted context omitted.
A Qwen3.6-35B-A3B or whatever it's full name is, when on a 3090, can at the very least, with very little fine tuning, compete with Haiku and blows away GPT4.1 (aka, the cheap models). It might keep up with Sonnet 4.5 with some tinkering. But long story short: it seems to have better performance and similar quality for a payoff of a year or so compared to cloud models. In the same way you can self host faster/easier/c…
> It might keep up with Sonnet 4.5 with some tinkering. I would love to see that. I've been using Qwen3.6 35B and the dense 27B, and they are both too slow with not such great results for agentic coding tasks. It's ok, but not impressive. I had better luck with the BF16 and Q8 than the Q4 from unsloth (really love what unsloth is doing in this space). Another problem I had with Qwen, which I did not ever encounter wi…
You don't mention runtime, hardware and harness which are critical. The 35B A3B model should be pretty fast, you do need a decent setup but nothing too fancy. I'm using Q8_XL from unslouth with llama.cpp and opencode and it's pretty awesome. I find that opencode drives the model best, it very rarely gets stuck even with a ton of tool calls. I agree it's comparable to Sonnet 4.5 for most tasks. You may also try the Gamma 4 models which are faster but not as good for coding.
Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
#485Earlier quoted context omitted.
You better have some sources for declaring that industrial capacity hasn't increased. The Fed reports around 8% penetration of AI in manufacturing already, but in my opinion it's too early for grand declarations like that without data. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/moni...
> The Fed reports Have you happened to purchase anything in the past 12 months, and looked at the Fed's inflation numbers?
> Have you happened to purchase anything in the past 12 months, and looked at the Fed's inflation numbers?
The Fed doesn't issue inflation numbers. The usually cited headline inflation numbers (CPI) are from the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, the ones used by the Fed as an input to monetary policy decisions (PCE) are issued by the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
#486Back in the dot-com bubble, people started inventing new metrics to "value" dot-com companies that lost money hand over fist. My favorite was "revenue multiples". So instead of a a P/E ratio, it was just a multiple of revenue no matter how much money you lost. We've invented a new term here too: revenue backlog. OpenAI and Anthropic in particular need to recover probably at least $2 trillion to recoup their capex inv…
Labor displacement is also called rising productivity.
Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
#487Earlier quoted context omitted.
One of my coworkers points out to me every sports reference that pops up in our internal company communications (e.g. "WINNING", "Going to put together a winning team," etc). It seems like everything in the US is couched in competitive language.
Yeah, its no accident that the U.S. is the number one economy, it comes from that kind of thinking across the populace. Complacency gets you conquered.
Number one economy if you ignore the comical debt. The US is borrowing from the future. Those chickens are going to come home to roost.
Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
#488Earlier quoted context omitted.
The idea that America had “goodwill” in other countries before Trump is laughable. Where? Latin America? Africa? In the Muslim world? We bombed the hell out of all those places long before Trump. This most recent Iran war has generated less outrage in the Muslim world than the war against Iraq 20 years ago. American foreign policy since the 1950s, fixated on fighting communism and then terrorism, has meddled with so…
The US is a big part of the customer base of the largest manufacturing economy in the world. China's economy blossomed via US and European consumers.
The Chinese economy probably will further blossom in Southeast Asia, Middle East, Africa, Central and South America why because they seem to be able to build infrastructure in many of the places that they trade with.
The United States Japan and South Korea seem to be failing in that area, if it wasn’t for the war between Russia and the Ukraine, the Chinese would probably be halfway to Europe with their high-speed rail system, which is already in the far west of China today.
Once the war is over between Russia and Ukraine it will be full steam ahead to Europe, whether that’s through the Caucasus, in the north or south or somewhere in the north between Russia and the Ukraine, the Chinese will get there and unfortunately the United States will be standing on the sidelines scratching its head in denial.
Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
#489Earlier quoted context omitted.
What does "dominate new AI research" really mean? If AI develops enough to successfully out-perform people at highly intellectual tasks, why would being first matter? Why do we need "your" AI output when we can just ask our own for a similar result? Why do people think about this like the Manhattan Project when it could just as easily be electrification? Sure, some people made a lot of money selling light bulbs. But…
The way US dominated in some of the industries (including software, for instance) was by being first to extract large value, and then funding the best people with compensation unachievable elsewhere. This meant that all the talent in the world gravitated towards the US, but that was gradually changing already with compensation catching up. Still, I believe US only hastened this with their change of immigration polici…
Ironically, the Civil Rights movement…
Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization
#490Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Pretending they’ll go to war over Taiwan and not doing it is an effective strategy for undermining the US. The bait is for the buildup that promotes the grifters. > An actual war would fix a lot of the grifting in the US as it would align interests We are in agreement. I made these points earlier in this chain. The Iran war doesn't count as the alignment of interest requires an actual threat of being defeated.
> The Iran war doesn't count as the alignment of interest requires an actual threat of being defeated. That's starting to sound a bit no-true-scotsman. If we need an existential threat to the US, that's not going to happen - realistically China conquering Taiwan or even building an empire around the Pacific would still not be felt as such a threat.
To align the interests there has to be a substantial negative consequence that would be felt by the grifters if the endeavor fails.
The US is already close to losing world hegemony status and it kinda needs it in order to print money / export inflation. A multipolar world is one where the US is greatly diminished and this will happen with or without losing a war.