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The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

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Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#191

Post by [deleted] »

root_axis wrote: post #165
rich_sasha wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a war in the sense that there's a concern that eventually you hit a singularity and can outsmart others in ways not constrained by human scales. If you make better guns, you're still limited by how many people can carry them. You can't conquer the world just like this. But if someone invents super intelligence, they can dominate new AI research, control global economies, fight much better, and all very quickly.

Hilarious to see people predicting a singularity when 40% of the u.s. economy can barley keep the LLMs online to complete mundane software tasks.

[deleted]

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#192

Post by LucidLynx »

The winner in the long term will be the one that will deliver the best performance and low-memory ratio for local models.

Anthropic, OpenAI and Mistral are just companies that are making money right now (still not profitable), but will lost their tractions and values in the long term.

However, I am more appealing to see how OpenCode Go subscriptions will go in the future: cheaper than big techs, more tokens, and they don't train on our data to (try to) improve...

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#193

Post by nradov »

bayarearefugee wrote: post #94
UltraSane wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anyone actually DOES invent ASI and doesn't share it then EVERYONE ELSE will never stop trying to steal it.

If anyone does invent ASI then everyone else will shortly after even if its entirely independent because all of the players in this space are just making incremental upgrades by throwing more compute at the problem. There are no magic leaps of true innovation happening anywhere that can't be replicated everywhere. The only shocking thing about "AI" technology is how ultimately simplistic it all is at a core level. So…

There is zero evidence that the current LLM scaling approach could ever result in true ASI. If I start driving south from Seattle then I'll eventually reach Los Angeles. How long will it take me to drive to Honolulu?

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#194

Post by nitwit005 »

ambicapter wrote: post #133
brabel wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't get it either, but it seems to me a bit similar to how the US, if you look at market value of car companies, has utterly crushed Europe and Japan (with China surging ahead of those and maybe threatening the US soon), which to me sounds crazy (I still think of German cars as the top of the bunch). According to Google (AI summary, no idea if it's 100% right but from what I've seen elsewhere it seems right): Top…

The stock market is over 60% passive investment, it's starting to get unmoored from the financial realities of the underlying companies. What that means for the future is [shrug emoji].

The price changes are not being driven by the passive investors though. People did actually decide to put all that money into Tesla.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#195

Post by anonSrEng202309 »

vasco wrote: post #176
usui wrote: post #33

> where it matters most: commercialization. It begs the question because both its premise and assertion are already wrong. Has AI improved the industrial capacity of the US in order to improve the lives of its citizens? No it hasn't. Has AI increased the wealth of its citizens by being able to do laundry or any household task in a generalized way? No it hasn't. The only thing it's really done is make very narrow slic…

You better have some sources for declaring that industrial capacity hasn't increased. The Fed reports around 8% penetration of AI in manufacturing already, but in my opinion it's too early for grand declarations like that without data. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/moni...

> ... it's too early for grand declarations like that without data.

You mean grand declarations like 'industrial capacity has increased'? Just because AI is present in the factory doesn't mean it's actually increased capacity.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#196

Post by rudedogg »

vasco wrote: post #176
usui wrote: post #33

> where it matters most: commercialization. It begs the question because both its premise and assertion are already wrong. Has AI improved the industrial capacity of the US in order to improve the lives of its citizens? No it hasn't. Has AI increased the wealth of its citizens by being able to do laundry or any household task in a generalized way? No it hasn't. The only thing it's really done is make very narrow slic…

You better have some sources for declaring that industrial capacity hasn't increased. The Fed reports around 8% penetration of AI in manufacturing already, but in my opinion it's too early for grand declarations like that without data. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/moni...

> The Fed reports

Have you happened to purchase anything in the past 12 months, and looked at the Fed's inflation numbers?

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#197

Post by [deleted] »

treis wrote: post #87
usui wrote: post #33

> where it matters most: commercialization. It begs the question because both its premise and assertion are already wrong. Has AI improved the industrial capacity of the US in order to improve the lives of its citizens? No it hasn't. Has AI increased the wealth of its citizens by being able to do laundry or any household task in a generalized way? No it hasn't. The only thing it's really done is make very narrow slic…

AI has definitely improved the industrial capacity of the US

[deleted]

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#200

Post by GolfPopper »

yalogin wrote: post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

>the main question for me is, why is this a war?

It's a war because the hinted promise behind the hype that the first organization to reach some as-yet-entirely-theoretical AGI that can bootstrap itself to godlike capabilities will then Install Planetary Overlord* and rule the world as near-deities themselves, with the rest of the (surviving) human race as their slaves.

I think it's a nonsensical idea, but that's the relevant driver.

* Coined by SF auther Charles Stross in The Jennifer Morgue (2006)

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