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How the AI Bubble Will Pop

derekthompson.org

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Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#481

Post by camillomiller »

fragmede wrote: post #311
camillomiller wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is none, zero value. What is the value of Sora 2, if even its creators feel like they have to pack it into a social media app with AI-slop reels? How is that not a testament to how suprisingly andvanced and useless at the same time the technology is?

It's in an app made by its creator so they can get juicy user data. If it was just export to TikTok, OpenAI wouldn't know what's popular, just what people have made.

Of course, we all know that hoarding user data is a fundamental step towards AGI

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#482

Post by fragmede »

camillomiller wrote: post #481
fragmede wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's in an app made by its creator so they can get juicy user data. If it was just export to TikTok, OpenAI wouldn't know what's popular, just what people have made.

Of course, we all know that hoarding user data is a fundamental step towards AGI

So there's value then?

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#483

Post by aurareturn »

bakugo wrote: post #128
aurareturn wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No she’s less productive. She just use it because she wants to do less work, be less likely to get promoted, and have to stay in the office longer to finish her work. /s What kind of question is that? Seriously. Are some people here so naive to think that tens of millions out there don’t know when something they choose to use repeatedly multiple times a day every day is making their life harder? Like ChatGPT is some…

You're working under the assumption that punching a prompt into ChatGPT and getting up to grab some coffee while it spits out thousands of tokens of meaningless slop to be used as a substitute for something that you previously would've written yourself is a net upgrade for everyone involved. It's not. I can use ChatGPT to write 20 paragraph email replies that would've previously been a single manually written paragra…

You’re assuming that there is zero quality check and that managers and clients will accept anything chatgpt generates.

Let’s be serious here. These are still professionals and they have a reputation. The few cases you hear online of AI slop in professional settings is the exception. Not the norm.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#484

Post by aurareturn »

bakugo wrote: post #254
isamuel wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And yes, ChatGPT is kinda like an addictive drug here. If someone "can't work without ChatGPT anymore", they're addicted and have lost the ability to work on their own as a result. Come on, you can’t mean this in any kind of robust way. I can’t get my job done without a computer; am I an “addict” who has “lost the ability to work on my own?” Every tool tends to engender dependence, roughly in proportion to how much…

> I can’t get my job done without a computer Are you really comparing an LLM to a computer? Really? There are many jobs today that quite literally would not exist at all without computers. It's in no way comparable. You use ChatGPT to do the things you were already doing faster and with less effort, at the cost of quality. You don't use it to do things you couldn't do at all before.

I can’t maintain my company’s Go codebase without chatgpt.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#485

Post by aurareturn »

johnnyanmac wrote: post #463
aurareturn wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The output of her work isn’t presentations and reports. The actual output is raising money and making successful deals. This requires convincing investors mostly which is very hard to do. Look up what M&A is.

>Look how what M&A is. Mergers and Aquisitions? If that's the right acronym I hate it even more, thank you. But yes, I can see how automating the BS of corporate culture then using it to impress people (who also don't care anyway) by saying "I made this with AI" can be "productive". Not really a job I can do, though.

Classic software developer mindset. Thinks nothing is valuable except writing code.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#486

Post by rafaelmn »

cornholio wrote: post #480
rafaelmn wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you calculate the investment into AI and then divide by say 100k that's how many man-years need to replace with AI to be cost effective as labor automation the numbers aren't that promising given the current level of capability.

I don't think I follow. 1 trillion total investment divided by 100k yields 10 million man years, or 300k man-careers. Just the disruption we can already see in the software industry are easily of that magnitude.

>Just the disruption we can already see in the software industry are easily of that magnitude.

WTF ? Where are you seeing that ?

Also no you can't calculate 100k over 30 years as 3M because you expect investment growth - lets say stock market average of 7 percent per year that investment must return like 24 million in 30 years otherwise its not worth it. That means 8 trillion in next 30 years if you look over that long of an investment period.

And who in the hell is going to capture 30 years of profit with model/compute investments made today.

The math only maths within short timeframes - hardware will get amortized in 5 years, model obsolete in even less. So best case scenario you have to displace 2 million people and capture their output to repay that. Not with future tech - with tech investments made today.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#488

Post by fragmede »

reliabilityguy wrote: post #394
fragmede wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't a comment on timelines, but a Waymo going wild is going to run over and kill people, so it makes sense to be overly conservative with moving forwards. Meanwhile, if someone hacks into a vibecoded website and deletes everything and steals my user data, no one's getting run over by a car.

Sure. The point I was trying to make is that we can see a technology that is amazing, and seemingly does what we want, and yet has so many edge cases that make it unviable commercially.

Have you tried Comma.ai? While Waymo and Tesla are trying to make fully self-driving autonomous taxi-grade AI and are taking forever to deliver, geohot casually makes the box that we all really want. A device that hooks into your car, and handles left right gas and brakes on the freeway. I can handle the driving between my house and the freeway, and the freeway offramp to my destination, it's the stop and go traffic on the freeway or just sitting there for hours that sucks ass.

We can see a technology and its shortcomings and people will still pay for it. Early cars were trash, but now look where we are.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#489

Post by mnky9800n »

UpsideDownRide wrote: post #196
mnky9800n wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i think it is more like maps. before 2004, before google maps, the way we interacted with the spatial distribution of places and things was different. all these ai dev tools like claude code as well as tools for writing, etc. are going to change the way we interact with our computers. but on the other side, the reason everyone is so gung ho on all this is because these models basically allow for the true personalizat…

I think there is a good flipside too. LLMs potentially enable generating custom made tooling tailored just for you. If you can get/provide data it's pretty easy to cook up solutions. As an example - I'd never bother with mobile app just for myself since it's too annoying to get into for a somewhat small thing. Now I can chug along and have LLM fill in quickly my missing basic in the area.

Yes. In my opinion the promise of LLMs isn’t whatever AGI robots doing everything for you. It’s a kind of holodeck or computer like in Star Trek. A tool that simply is able to translate your ideas into a computational representation.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#490

Post by ponector »

_heimdall wrote: post #21
rimeice wrote: post #2

> Some people think artificial intelligence will be the most important technology of the 21st century. I don’t, I think a workable fusion reactor will be the most important technology of the 21st century.

What makes you think we'll have fusion reactors in the 21st century?

What makes people think we'll have AGI in the 21st century? LLM is not AI, and as far away from AGI as self-parking car.
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