481–490 of 1001 posts
IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.
IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.
Nvida has a P/E of 47. While it may be a bit high for a semiconductor company, it's definitely not a meme stock figure.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hype buyers are also Hype sellers - anything Nvidia was last week is exactly what it is this week - DeepSeek doesn't really have any impact on Nvidia sales - Some argument could be made that this can shift compute off of cloud and onto end user devices, but that really seems like a stretch given what I've seen running this locally.
I agree hype is a big portion of it, but if DeepSeek really has found a way to train models just as good as frontier ones for a hundredth of the hardware investment, that is a substantial material difference for Nvidia's future earnings.
The vast majority of NVDA's value is based on the assumption they are the only game in town that can do AI. I'm still waiting for a competing tech to disrupt them further: * Intel, AMD, etc. could start making competitive GPUs that push the price down * A new ASIC chip specifically designed for LLMs * A new training or LLM runtime algorithm that uses the CPU * Quantum chip that can train or run a LLM If Nvidia lost i…
Around the AMD (200bn) / Intel levels (100bn) which is a ~90% reduction in share price from todays close.
Nvidia valuation = $3000B Nvidia profits during AI madness last year = $65B (last 4 quarters) Nvidia profits during normal year = $5B This stock could drop 90% from here, and still be expensive. The numbers are absolutely crazy and make no sense at all. Stargate project is aiming to invest $500B over 4 years. Those $500B are a pipe dream, but let's suppose for a second that all of that $500B will be Nvidia profits an…
Also, what he’s saying is if 500/4 =125B were NVDA yearly profits (and of course really that would just be revenue, not profit), it’d still mean NVDA should be more like 1875B market cap at a more reasonable 15x price to earnings ratio. If I understand the previous poster correctly.
So the Chinese graciously gift a paper and model which describes methods that radically increase the efficiency of hardware which will allow US AI firms to create much better models due to having significantly more AI hardware and people are bearish on US AI now?
No, because what this implies is that the Chinese have better labor power in the tech-sector than the US, considering how much more efficient this technology is. Which means that even if US companies adopt these practices, the best workers will still be in China, communicating largely in Chinese, building relationships with other Chinese-speaking people purchasing chinese speaking labor. These relationships are alrea…
This is quite an assumption.
But the majority of the AI R&D may be in China, with a high barrier for participation for outsiders, leading to an increasing gap. Whether this is so is not obvious.
Nvidia valuation = $3000B Nvidia profits during AI madness last year = $65B (last 4 quarters) Nvidia profits during normal year = $5B This stock could drop 90% from here, and still be expensive. The numbers are absolutely crazy and make no sense at all. Stargate project is aiming to invest $500B over 4 years. Those $500B are a pipe dream, but let's suppose for a second that all of that $500B will be Nvidia profits an…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I believe you that it had to do with the selloff, but I believe that efficiency improvements are good news for NVIDIA: each card just got 20x more useful
That still means that that AI firms don't have to buy as many of Nvidia's chips, which is the whole thing that Nvidia's price was predicated on. FB, Google and Microsoft just had their their billions of dollars in Nvidia GPU capex blown out by $5M side-project. Tech firms are probably not going to be as generous shelling out whatever overinflated price Nvidia was asking for as they were a week ago.
Although not all commodities will work like fossil fuels did in Jevon’s Paradox. It could be the case that demand for AI doesn’t grow fast enough to keep demand for chips as high as it was, as efficiency improves.
DeepSeek has humiliated the entire US tech sector. I wonder if they will learn from this, fire their useless middle management and product managers with sociology degrees, and actually pivot to being technology companies?
If that's true, normally, mainland will win, as the people over that side have more grit, are more eager to succeed, are working at 996 schedule, and have nothing to lose. They're hard to stop as long as their government will not interfere.