Still overvalued IMO. Their market cap remains ludicrous.
Everything is overvalued if you think in terms of earning multiples, p/s, p/e should be 1:1
1:1? so that dividends cover the share price in the first year of ownership?
Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
351–360 of 1001 posts
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#352Massive overreaction in my opinion (not financial advice). People are forgetting how much compute is being used for inference. This is going to be further accelerated: - Reasoning models are going to generate orders of magnitude more tokens. - Synthetic an augmented data is more and more prevalent, and if you need to process pre-training scale dataset, you will need a lot of inference. - etc.
When put into context one could say the OG overreaction was thinking 500B USD in infrastructure investments and restarting nuclear plants were rational decisions rather than working on efficiency.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#353IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.
Hard to argue Nvidia is a meme stock and that Tesla is not a bigger meme stock. If meme stocks were imploding, why is Tesla fine? This is about DeepSeek.
Tesla is playing the political game with Trump. They're riding that wave. Musk always find some new reason for people to believe the stock.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#354IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.
Hype buyers are also Hype sellers - anything Nvidia was last week is exactly what it is this week - DeepSeek doesn't really have any impact on Nvidia sales - Some argument could be made that this can shift compute off of cloud and onto end user devices, but that really seems like a stretch given what I've seen running this locally.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#355Still overvalued IMO. Their market cap remains ludicrous.
Everything is overvalued if you think in terms of earning multiples, p/s, p/e should be 1:1
Earning multiples choose an arbitrary time length of 1 year.
What you're really trying to purchase is a machine that creates more money than it uses. You need to guess at if that machine will do its job at an arbitrary point in the future, and how well it will do it. Those factors are only loosely correlated with current PE
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#356IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.
I think less of that and more of real risks - Nvidia legitimately has the earnings right now. The question is how sustainable that is, when most of it is coming from 5 or so customers that are both motivated and capable of taking back those 90% margins for themselves
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#357DeepSeek has humiliated the entire US tech sector. I wonder if they will learn from this, fire their useless middle management and product managers with sociology degrees, and actually pivot to being technology companies?
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#358So the Chinese graciously gift a paper and model which describes methods that radically increase the efficiency of hardware which will allow US AI firms to create much better models due to having significantly more AI hardware and people are bearish on US AI now?
https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1ib5vf9/deepseek...
They did it by using H800 chips, not H100 or B200 or anything crazy.
This means NVIDIA may not be the only game in town.
E.g. Chinese manufacturers.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#359So the Chinese graciously gift a paper and model which describes methods that radically increase the efficiency of hardware which will allow US AI firms to create much better models due to having significantly more AI hardware and people are bearish on US AI now?
I think it's probably more accurate to say that people are now a bit more bullish on what the Chinese will be able to accomplish even in the face of trade restrictions. Now whether or not it makes sense to be bearish on US AI is a totally different issue. Personally I think being bearish on US AI makes zero sense. I'm almost positive there will be restrictions on using Chinese models forthcoming in the near to medium…
US AI is only somewhat related though.
The subject is NVIDIA.
Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout
#360Under deepseek R1 running on 6 Mac mini alone sure Nvidia can feel the pressure