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TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

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Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#481

Post by astrange »

throw8383833jj wrote: post #416

I don't know much about semi conductors. maybe i'm just an old dinosaur. But, why is the whole world so hellbent on getting the very latest chips? Couldn't we just make do with 10 year old chip designs? My Iphone6 can do just about everything that my wife's latest iphone11 can do (at least that a casual observer can see). Cars from 10 years ago were'nt that different from now (other than buttons being replaced with s…

iPhone 11 is 3 years old, but I think you’d be able to spot the difference as soon as you used the camera.

Cars from 2012 didn’t have modern safety features, backup cameras, weren’t electric, the radios were 1-line LCDs, etc.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#482

Post by astrange »

KenChicken wrote: post #97
holoduke wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are lightyears behind. 20 years if not more. These chip machines is work of many decates of iterative work. You cannot simply step in and produce similar tech.

You underestimate the insane R&D investment china can put on its chip industry to get ahead quicker

TSMC isn’t the only thing they need to replace. ASML isn’t either. There’s multiple levels of sole suppliers for chipmaking that nobody can replace. China can’t replicate an mRNA vaccine either.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#483

Post by astrange »

fullstackchris wrote: post #439

chip noob here, i thought we'd already reached the theoretical limit of chip fab sizes? lots of people are talking about 3nm and smaller in this thread? can someone explain?

3nm is a marketing/press term; nothing is specifically 3nm about it and the sizes are different across fabs.

Anyway, they’re starting on 1nm now so it’s not dead yet.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#484

Post by TheBigSalad »

fomine3 wrote: post #473
bcrosby95 wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the very least, living in a desert is better for climate change than living somewhere you need to burn fossil fuels for heating.

isn't desert colder at night?

Than day? Yes. Colder than Minnesota? No.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#485

Post by hakfoo »

biomcgary wrote: post #409
bpanon wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On what basis do you predict the US will destroy the factories?

Mutually Assured (Economic) Destruction. If destroying the TSMC factories is off the table, then China is incentivized to invade (to capture leading edge chip production). If the fabs are destroyed, it would take years to rebuild, which will cripple Chinese production of consumer goods using those chips. Personally, I would be shocked if the US military doesn't also have a plan to "relocate" strategic personnel to th…

This might be feasible, but it seems like we're pushing every possible lever to tell the PRC to make their own silicon ASAP.

Yeah, they're behind now, but given it's now strategically important both economically and militarily, can that be expected to last forever?

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#486

Post by ngcc_hk »

mr_toad wrote: post #462
wahern wrote: post #415

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cynically, this narrative was possibly promoted by the USG/Taiwan-lobby to put lipstick on what has always been a naked display of power politics. I also suspect this narrative is at the very least supported if not conceived by Taiwan as propaganda. But we don't need to be cynical. What this narrative does is establish in the minds of Americans a shared interest in Taiwan and, arguably, even a shared identity. That…

> If the U.S. aggressively defends Taiwan in an invasion attempt, it won't be because of TSMC and fears of a chip shortage; it'll be because the American public has become invested in the idea of a free and democratic Taiwan, That, and the concern about China’s long-term ambitions, and what sort of precedent letting them take Taiwan unchecked would set.

Ukraine is a good example.

However for this, japan and s Korea would be in play. They have to submit to the power that control the sea or 1/2 of Pacific Ocean down to Australia (with a base in South Pacific say).

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#487

Post by tnel77 »

0cf8612b2e1e wrote: post #414
tnel77 wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. There are zero domestic use cases for that ancient 4nm tech…

How many consumers or even servers are running latest generation? 4nm indeed seems like it would have legs for a long time.

Exactly. I get how having the latest and greatest would be ideal, but scoffing at 4nm seems silly to me.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#488

Post by deltaseventhree »

lossolo wrote: post #448
deltaseventhree wrote: post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The subsidies make the plant break even. Defense spending is basically another subsidy. Most of the weapons the US makes is useless in a civilization that has mostly been at peace for a long time. Hard to say how far defense will go though in terms of spending. You are definitive about defense spending in a recession. This is wrong. Aspects of the government will begin pulling back. We do not know how this will effec…

> Most of the weapons the US makes is useless in a civilization that has mostly been at peace for a long time It's not useless, it's all about power projection. When you go to rob a bank and take a gun with you that you will never use then you don't call that gun useless because thanks to projecting your deadly power with it you were able to successfully rob the bank.

No post body was provided.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#489

Post by andy_ppp »

hakfoo wrote: post #485
biomcgary wrote: post #409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mutually Assured (Economic) Destruction. If destroying the TSMC factories is off the table, then China is incentivized to invade (to capture leading edge chip production). If the fabs are destroyed, it would take years to rebuild, which will cripple Chinese production of consumer goods using those chips. Personally, I would be shocked if the US military doesn't also have a plan to "relocate" strategic personnel to th…

This might be feasible, but it seems like we're pushing every possible lever to tell the PRC to make their own silicon ASAP. Yeah, they're behind now, but given it's now strategically important both economically and militarily, can that be expected to last forever?

I’m not sure it’s proven China can build better products under their system than countries with freedom. Maybe only DJI are doing this in the consumer space today. The West/Japan/SK/Taiwan are still massively ahead in building the more complex components that China then assembles.

It appears the West is slowly untangling their economies from Chinese dependency and about 1/3 of stuff is made there today. With zero covid making them an unreliable manufacturing partner I doubt this will increase in the short term. I am pretty sure high end fabs will be returning to the west very soon and America could not have a better competitor than China to push them forward to new heights. I would bet on free countries producing most on the innovation over the next 20 years.

Re: TSMC to make 4nm chips in Arizona for Apple, AMD, Nvidia

#490

Post by deltaseventhree »

ahkurtz wrote: post #437
deltaseventhree wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's universally well known that Asian workers work harder and can be paid less. It's not just about intels capabilities. It's about economic wage standards. The cost is just too high in the US. That being said tsmc workers in Taiwan are by far more capable then Intel this is proven by the 3nm process of which Intel is completely incapable of achieving.

You have posted many times in the thread saying the same thing, but slightly moderated because you got flagged. You said elsewhere "things change" regarding labor force quality. They do. Asian labor across the board, but especially in China, has been rapidly increasing in cost while for example USA labor is stagnant in overall cost. Apple is medium-term going to be priced out of China just by labor costs. It is actua…

No post body was provided.
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