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U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

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Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#481

Post by ghaff »

Consultant32452 wrote: post #383
donatj wrote: post #146

What are the actual metrics they use to measure inflation? My electric bill is 33% higher than previous years, my gas bill is similar. City/Water/Sewer doubled. Trips to the grocery store are up close to 20%, and gasoline doubled. Everything you actually purchase day-to-day is up far more than the inflation benchmarks, so much so it’s beginning to feel like propaganda. I overnight went from thinking “I make good mone…

You should be suspicious of any metric that attempts to whittle inflation down to a single number. The purpose of single number measures of inflation is so that the people who get judged by those metrics can manipulate them.

Yes, any single number that measures unemployment or inflation can be misleading which is why there are in fact multiple measures.

However, the public generally is used to a specific unemployment measure and a specific inflation measure which is what's generally reported in the news.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#482

Post by jonnycomputer »

jacknews wrote: post #379
jonnycomputer wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You aren't being lied to. if, as you seem to think, the government wanted to hide true inflation, you'd think they'd do a better job, right? you think Biden wants these high inflation numbers? what a joke. you're already on the fringe.

He certainly doesn't want highER numbers. It isn't that the published inflation figures are falsified, or lies. They just don't truly reflect the cost of living, due to adjustments, hedonics, omissions, choice of basket items, product crapification and shrinkage, etc. But with so many dissenting posts here getting flagged, you have to wonder.

They actually publish multiple indexes. I think it is hard enough a problem that a lot of people find can find something they don't like about any one of them.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#483

Post by clint »

jollyllama wrote: post #312
soupfordummies wrote: post #193

Some random things I've noticed in my personal experience during the last few weeks that are inflated at way above 8.5%: Gasoline (gallon) - 3.00 last summer, 3.75 today (25% increase) Towing a Car (~50mi Round Trip) - 125 last summer, 350 today. (180% increase!) Bag of Dorito's - 4.50 last summer, 6 today (33% increase) Can of Spray Paint - 4.25 last Summer, 6.50 today (54% increase)

It's so much worse if you compare it to ten or fifteen years ago. Or even five.

or fifty!!

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#484

Post by thatfrenchguy »

slaw wrote: post #367
bluedino wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vehicle we bought cost over 10% what the same vehicle would have cost last year. Groceries are 40% more than they were. Utility bill is up nearly 50%. Clothes and shoes don't seem to be more expensive, they just don't seem to go on sale anymore. Our neighbors had a new roof installed and spend almost double what we did 3 years ago, we have nearly the same house and the same contractor did it. Fast food has gone w…

Where did you get a vehicle only 10% more expensive? New Jeep Cherokee Latitude 4x4 was $21k in January 2021. The cheapest new Cherokee now is $35k. 3 years old is $25k. Seattle,WA.

Jeeps aren’t really a good benchmark for cars though, they’re an aspirational car, even the Cherokee.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#485

Post by gt565k »

kjkjadksj wrote: post #453
weberer wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you live in the USA, a Costco membership is very worth it.

Its tough when you live in an apartment with no storage. You often are paying more because you dont have room for bulk. Costco is great if you have a garage or basement though

What I do is buy meat in bulk from costco and marinate and preseason then cut it up and vacuum seal it with a $30 vacuum sealer and sousivide bags from amazon.

I can then stuff my freezer with ready to cook chicken, steak, fish, etc. I just take it out the night before to thaw in the fridge.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#486

Post by kjkjadksj »

upupandup wrote: post #220
jacknews wrote: post #201

Quoted post unavailable.

This is just going to push people further and further away into fringes and extremist views when they are lied to. We are truly on our own now. Our government no longer serves the people but a smaller proportion of people that gets their representatives elected to spread lies about everything. This garbage inflation number is just the beginning. Who knows what other absurdities they are willing to push to the public…

If you think this is a new phenomenon you need to read more history

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#487

Post by nradov »

jliptzin wrote: post #219
radioactivist wrote: post #97

So the year over year CPI increase each month this year (starting from January) was 7.5%, 7.9%, 8.5%, 8.3%, 8.6%, 9.1%, 8.5%. So this value has been jumping around a bit as it has been going up. This drop is being taken as good news -- but I worry whether this is really a meaningful drop or whether we are just over interpreting what could be a fundamentally noisy metric?

Avg gasoline prices are down 20% in 2 months. Is that noise? https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price

We won't know if it's noise or not until several months in the future when we can see a clear trend line. So come back here in a year and we can tell you whether it was noise. Any answers you see today are just educated guesses.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#488

Post by TaylorPhebillo »

kqr wrote: post #286
radioactivist wrote: post #97

So the year over year CPI increase each month this year (starting from January) was 7.5%, 7.9%, 8.5%, 8.3%, 8.6%, 9.1%, 8.5%. So this value has been jumping around a bit as it has been going up. This drop is being taken as good news -- but I worry whether this is really a meaningful drop or whether we are just over interpreting what could be a fundamentally noisy metric?

This is what statistical process control charts were invented to tell us: https://static.loop54.com/XmR.html?baseline=7.5,7.9,8.5,8.3,... Nope, last number is well within the limits set by the variation of the previous numbers. Depending on how sensitive you feel like being to false alarms, I wouldn't even say there's been a clear trend this year. If you detrend it by successive differences we see that the slope is v…

I'm not familiar with this, does this method require that each value is measured independently of the others? Because in that case, you'd want to use monthly inflation rates, rather than monthly estimates of inflation relative to 12 months prior, right?

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#489

Post by zht »

twoodfin wrote: post #436
hajile wrote: post #426

Median income in 1990 was $50,500. Adjusting for inflation using CPI, that's $102,700 in 2020 money, but median income for 2020 was actually $67,500. Since 2020, this has been kicked into overdrive. I believe wholesale goods inflation is somewhere near 30% since the pandemic began (inflation numbers look lower because services -- aka wages -- don't increase at the same amount). The only people immune to inflation are…

Median income in 1990 was $50,500. That's already in CPI-adjusted dollars. Nominal median household income in 1990 was $30k: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA646N

im always curious about people (not you, the person you are replying to) who pop out metrics like these and mis-interpret them (not maliciously I'm assuming). I always wonder how many people they've repeated those facts to (most of whom won't fact check or think twice about it) and how many of THOSE people repeated them to other people THEY know.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#490

Post by _-david-_ »

fleddr wrote: post #361
upupandup wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet theres ppl, even on this thread that claims your views are conspiracy theory, that you are lying about what you saw.

I generally agree that CPI "feels" to be consistently lower compared to what actual people experience. But you can't have a meaningful discussion about it if you do not list the weight of the price hike in your expense pattern. When gas for your car normally takes up 10% of your income, and this price doubles, your personal inflation is 10%, not 100% (assuming no other price hikes).

Just to be clear. The person did not say it his personal inflation is 100%. He said prices increased by 100-150%. If item X usually costs $3 and now it costs $6. The price of that item increased by 100%.

Perhaps he is only spending 10% of his income, but it doesn't really matter for what he is talking about.

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