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U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

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Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#172
How easy this value can be verified? In other words, do we have all inputs public and the algorithm (with all its "hedonistic adjustments") is fully accessible? Can we track changes in the algorithm?

Even with the effect of high base, I am getting increasingly suspicious of official numbers (same with the unemployment statistics). Energy costs have skyrocketed and they get into almost everything an economy produces. I guess, we could get a bit clearer picture after the incoming midterms.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could also be demand destruction starting to slow the increases in prices.

Seems like EV uptake rate, while still just a fraction of total sales, is probably high enough to contribute to demand destruction. Gas prices have come down pretty fast. I wonder if EV adoption goes fast enough that we'll see a period of time when gas prices just crater for a while. A sweet spot of owning an ICE vehicle, but then gas stations will start to close up and ICEV owners could face the same problem EV owne…

[deleted]

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#175

So the year over year CPI increase each month this year (starting from January) was 7.5%, 7.9%, 8.5%, 8.3%, 8.6%, 9.1%, 8.5%. So this value has been jumping around a bit as it has been going up. This drop is being taken as good news -- but I worry whether this is really a meaningful drop or whether we are just over interpreting what could be a fundamentally noisy metric?

Be careful using the YoY number, you need to factor in the base effect. (i.e. the change in YoY number each month factors in the new month of data but also the month 13 months ago that is no longer included)

MoM is a cleaner way to look at things in volatile times like these.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#176

Good news I guess. But my electricity price literally doubled. My house insurance is up 30%. My gas bill is up by a lot. Have you seen the price of oreos? The $5 box at Taco Bell is my splurge and I'm trying to cut back on everything I can.

any insurance company with life insurance arm will need to increase to compensate

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#177

Good news I guess. But my electricity price literally doubled. My house insurance is up 30%. My gas bill is up by a lot. Have you seen the price of oreos? The $5 box at Taco Bell is my splurge and I'm trying to cut back on everything I can.

The vehicle we bought cost over 10% what the same vehicle would have cost last year.

Groceries are 40% more than they were.

Utility bill is up nearly 50%.

Clothes and shoes don't seem to be more expensive, they just don't seem to go on sale anymore.

Our neighbors had a new roof installed and spend almost double what we did 3 years ago, we have nearly the same house and the same contractor did it.

Fast food has gone way up, sit-down restaurants don't seem to have changed much.

Homes in the area have went up 100% in the last two years.

We won't even talk about gas.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#178
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A Sausage McMuffin and a coke used to cost $2.12 at most locations near me two years ago. Today it varies from $2.95 up to $3.85 (strangely this high value is in Detroit proper where income is lowest vs the burbs). I notice this price varies even at the same locations sometimes, but it's WAY up in general by a solid 50 percent in 2 years.

Quoted post unavailable.

1) Greed isn't a variable here - McDonalds today can't be more greedy than McDonalds in 2020. McDonalds in 2020 was already capped out as far as greed goes. They have been the poster child for corporate greed for decades. If greed could make prices go up they'd have been selling $3 burgers back in 1950.

2) If prices go up by 50% without an increase in costs, profit should go up by much more than 50% and share prices should be doubling, tripling, etc. If their stock is up a lesser percent than the price of their goods, that suggests they are being squeezed. The share price going up is effectively just another effect of inflation.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could also be demand destruction starting to slow the increases in prices.

Seems like EV uptake rate, while still just a fraction of total sales, is probably high enough to contribute to demand destruction. Gas prices have come down pretty fast. I wonder if EV adoption goes fast enough that we'll see a period of time when gas prices just crater for a while. A sweet spot of owning an ICE vehicle, but then gas stations will start to close up and ICEV owners could face the same problem EV owne…

EVs are ~1% of cars and ~5% of new car sales. It seems like we have another 5 years until those scale effects start to really kick in.

Re: U.S. annual inflation rate drops to 8.5%

#180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could also be demand destruction starting to slow the increases in prices.

Seems like EV uptake rate, while still just a fraction of total sales, is probably high enough to contribute to demand destruction. Gas prices have come down pretty fast. I wonder if EV adoption goes fast enough that we'll see a period of time when gas prices just crater for a while. A sweet spot of owning an ICE vehicle, but then gas stations will start to close up and ICEV owners could face the same problem EV owne…

When ppl talk about EVs overtaking petrol all I can do is shake head.

Infrastructure is not there and is not going to be there for EVs for a long time.

Its not only gas stations but also power plants, transit cables, personel, supply chains, technology, laws and other.

If we make good investments it will take around 50 years in some developed EU countries to reach appropriate infrastructure levels. In less developed countries probably 100+years.

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