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Gemini 3

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Re: Gemini 3

#471

Post by ATMLOTTOBEER »

giarc wrote: post #134
bespokedevelopr wrote: post #121

Wow so the polymarket insider bet was true then.. https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1oz6gjp/new...

These prediction markets are so ripe for abuse it's unbelievable. People need to realize there are real people on the other side of these bets. Brian Armstong, CEO of Coinbase intentionally altered the outcome of a bet by randomly stating "Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, Web3" at the end of an earnings call. These types of bets shouldn't be allowed.

It’s not really abuse though. These markets aggregate information; when an insider takes one side of a trade, they are selling their information about the true price (probability of the thing happening) to the market (and the price will move accordingly).

You’re spot on that people should think of who is on the other side of the trades they’re taking, and be extremely paranoid of being adversely selected.

Disallowing people from making terrible trades seems…paternalistic? Idk

Re: Gemini 3

#473

Post by sosodev »

recitedropper wrote: post #438

Who wants to bet they benchmaxxed ARC-AGI-2? Nothing in their release implies they found some sort of "secret sauce" that justifies the jump. Maybe they are keeping that itself secret, but more likely they probably just have had humans generate an enormous number of examples, and then synthetically build on that. No benchmark is safe, when this much money is on the line.

Here's some insight from Jeff Dean and Noam Shazeer's interview with Dwarkesh Patel https://youtu.be/v0gjI__RyCY&t=7390

> When you think about divulging this information that has been helpful to your competitors, in retrospect is it like, "Yeah, we'd still do it," or would you be like, "Ah, we didn't realize how big a deal transformer was. We should have kept it indoors." How do you think about that?

> Some things we think are super critical we might not publish. Some things we think are really interesting but important for improving our products; We'll get them out into our products and then make a decision.

Re: Gemini 3

#474

Post by realty_geek »

I would like to try controlling my browser with this model. Any ideas how to do this. Ideally I would like something like openAI's atlas or perplexity's comet but powered by gemini 3.

Re: Gemini 3

#475

Post by id »

lairv wrote: post #293

Out of curiosity, I gave it the latest project euler problem published on 11/16/2025, very likely out of the training data Gemini thought for 5m10s before giving me a python snippet that produced the correct answer. The leaderboard says that the 3 fastest human to solve this problem took 14min, 20min and 1h14min respectively Even thought I expect this sort of problem to very much be in the distribution of what the mo…

gpt-5.1 gave me the correct answer after 2m 17s. That includes retrieving the Euler website. I didn't even have to run the Python script, it also did that.

Re: Gemini 3

#476

Post by netdur »

sd9 wrote: post #4

How long does it typically take after this to become available on https://gemini.google.com/app ? I would like to try the model, wondering if it's worth setting up billing or waiting. At the moment trying to use it in AI Studio (on the Free tier) just gives me "Failed to generate content, quota exceeded: you have reached the limit of requests today for this model. Please try again tomorrow."

On gemini.google.com, I see options labeled 'Fast' and 'Thinking.' The 'Thinking' option uses Gemini 3 Pro

Re: Gemini 3

#477

Post by emodendroket »

pclmulqdq wrote: post #466
qsort wrote: post #450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not explaining myself right. Stockfish is a superhuman chess program. It's routinely used in chess analysis as "ground truth": if Stockfish says you've made a mistake, it's almost certain you did in fact make a mistake[0]. Also, because it's incomparably stronger than even the very best humans, sometimes the moves it suggests are extremely counterintuitive and it would be unrealistic to expect a human to find the…

Yeah, it is often pointed out as a brilliance in game analysis if a GM makes a move that an engine says is bad and turns out to be good. However, it only happens in very specific positions.

Does that happen because the player understands some tendency of their opponent that will cause them to not play optimally? Or is it genuinely some flaw in the machine’s analysis?

Re: Gemini 3

#478

Post by horhay »

recitedropper wrote: post #438

Who wants to bet they benchmaxxed ARC-AGI-2? Nothing in their release implies they found some sort of "secret sauce" that justifies the jump. Maybe they are keeping that itself secret, but more likely they probably just have had humans generate an enormous number of examples, and then synthetically build on that. No benchmark is safe, when this much money is on the line.

They ran the tests themselves only on semi-private evals. Basically the same caveat as when o3 supposedly beat ARC1

Re: Gemini 3

#479

Post by ATMLOTTOBEER »

HDThoreaun wrote: post #211
giarc wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These prediction markets are so ripe for abuse it's unbelievable. People need to realize there are real people on the other side of these bets. Brian Armstong, CEO of Coinbase intentionally altered the outcome of a bet by randomly stating "Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, Web3" at the end of an earnings call. These types of bets shouldn't be allowed.

I’m pretty sure that these model release date markets are made to be abused. They’re just a way to pay insiders to tell you when the model will be released. The mention markets are pure degenerate gambling and everyone involved knows that

Correct, and this is actually how all markets work in the sense that they allow for price discovery :)

Re: Gemini 3

#480

Post by fresh_broccoli »

bespokedevelopr wrote: post #121

Wow so the polymarket insider bet was true then.. https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1oz6gjp/new...

In hindsight, one possible reason to bet on November 18 was the deprecation date of older models: https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1oom1lq/google...
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