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AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

tomwphillips.co.uk

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Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#471

Post by didibus »

Marha01 wrote: post #395
jimbokun wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In addition to being hard, we should ask if something is useful or if the benefits outweigh the harms. It's hard to see benefits from AI systems, AGI or otherwise. It doesn't seem to produce anything that improves human happiness or general well being.

I think you just lack imagination. I can imagine a lot of benefits of AGI or near-AGI systems.

The issue is how you can also easily imagine a lot of negative.

Neither those imagining positives or those imagining negatives can really prove to the other that they're right. This becomes the source of the conflict.

If you predicted the negative outcomes, you'd also oppose it. If you believe the outcomes will be positive, you'd be a proponent.

Now it also happens that a lot of those predicting positive outcomes are currently making money off the development of AI and so have an investment in its continued enablement. Which muddies things even more, because it's an obvious bias.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#472

Post by AgentME »

jmccaf wrote: post #415
simonw wrote: post #12

Tip for AI skeptics: skip the data center water usage argument. At this point I think it harms your credibility - numbers like "millions of liters of water annually" (from the linked article) sound scary when presented without context, but if you compare data centers to farmland or even golf courses they're minuscule. Other energy usage figures, air pollution, gas turbines, CO2 emissions etc are fine - but if you com…

I think the water use arguments are relevant, particularly in regions of the world and US (CA) where potable water is scarce, but land and electricity are available . NYT article gift link where people reported wells ran dry after data centers moved in. : 'From Mexico to Ireland, Fury Mounts Over a Global A.I. Frenzy' https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/20/technology/ai-data-center... From https://www.eesi.org/articles/v…

The reported case about water wells running dry had to do with issues in construction rather than anything about the data center's regular operation:

> But the reason their taps ran dry (which the article itself says) was entirely because of sediment buildup in groundwater from construction. It had nothing to do with the data center’s normal operations (it hadn’t begun operating yet, and doesn’t even draw from local groundwater). The residents were wronged by Meta here and deserve compensation, but this is not an example of a data center’s water demand harming a local population.

https://andymasley.substack.com/p/the-ai-water-issue-is-fake...

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#473

Post by austy69 »

lkey wrote: post #285
austy69 wrote: post #104

> As a technologist I want to solve problems effectively (by bringing about the desired, correct result), efficiently (with minimal waste) and without harm (to people or the environment). I agree with the first two points, but as others have commented the environmental claim here is just not compelling. Starting up your computer is technically creating environmental waste. By his metrics solving technical problems et…

Perfect harmlessness is impossible. Thus, we cannot differentiate between harms, nor should we try. This a stupid thing to profess and I do not believe you would defend it if pressed.

I appreciate your thoughtful reply; I guess I would like more elaboration from the author on what constitutes ethical technology.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#474

Post by titzer »

fallingfrog wrote: post #9
Etheryte wrote: post #2

Many big names in the industry have long advocated for the idea that LLM-s are a fundamental dead end. Many have also gone on and started companies to look for a new way forward. However, if you're hip deep in stock options, along with your reputation, you'll hardly want to break the mirage. So here we are.

I have some idea of what the way forward is going to look like but I don't want to accelerate the development of such a dangerous technology so I haven't told anyone about it. The people working on AI are very smart and they will solve the associated challenges soon enough. The problem of how to slow down the development of these technologies- a political problem- is much more pressing right now.

Let me guess, you have a truly marvelous demonstration of this proposition which this margin is too narrow to contain.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#475

Post by svieira »

lordleft wrote: post #59

The language around AGI is proof, in my mind, that religious impulses don't die with the withering of religion. A desire for a totalizing solution to all woes still endures.

> The nineteenth century decided to have no religious authority. The twentieth century seems disposed to have any religious authority.

An article in Illustrated London News, April 26, 1924 by G. K. Chesterton

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#476

Post by jtr1 »

emp17344 wrote: post #453
BeFlatXIII wrote: post #387

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the environmental attack on AI is more a hangover from crypto than a thoughtful attempt to evaluate the costs and benefits of this new technology Especially since so many anti-crypto people immediately pivoted to anti-AI. That sudden shift in priorities makes it hard to take them seriously.

The anti-crypto people were correct, though. Why should we not push back when we’re seeing the same type of baseless hype that surrounded crypto being cultivated around the AI space?

They were and we should push back and yes, there is a mountain of baseless hype. But if you train your fire on the wrong thing, you risk not addressing the actual problem.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#478

Post by hadlock »

bwhiting2356 wrote: post #334
simonw wrote: post #12

Tip for AI skeptics: skip the data center water usage argument. At this point I think it harms your credibility - numbers like "millions of liters of water annually" (from the linked article) sound scary when presented without context, but if you compare data centers to farmland or even golf courses they're minuscule. Other energy usage figures, air pollution, gas turbines, CO2 emissions etc are fine - but if you com…

Water location matters. Is the data center in a desert with scarce potable water for locals? Or is next to a large Canadian lake, plenty of potable water, with people who want to trade something for currency so they can put avocados in their salad?

A lot of data centers are near the Columbia river, as power is cheap there thanks to hydroelectric; which flows through an arid desert-like region, but is also the largest river in the western US and it's simply impossible to pump too much water out of it.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#479

Post by daerogami »

MangoToupe wrote: post #438
asdfman123 wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm an atheist too. I grew up in the church, rejected it in my teens. The problem with organized religion was the "organized" part -- the centralized, inflexible human authority. I'm increasingly convinced that spirituality is a vital part of the human experience and we should embrace it, not reject it. If you try to banish basic human impulses, they just resurface in worse, unexpected forms somewhere else. We all ne…

> The problem with organized religion was the "organized" part What on earth is "unorganized" religion? How is such a concept distinct from the concepts of "worldview" or "ideology"? When people use the term, I assume automatically they're referring to abrahamic faiths—especially in contrast to "atheism".

It just means a religion with a formal structure and leadership behind it. The term points to the institution and its influence, not the beliefs themselves. An unorganized religion is basically personal or informal practice without a central authority, like an individual or essentially a book club.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#480

Post by Windchaser »

heymijo wrote: post #47
paulryanrogers wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because there are worse abuses elsewhere doesn't mean datacenters should get a pass. Golf and datacenters should have to pay for their externalities. And if that means both are uneconomical in arid parts of the country then that's better than bankrupting the public and the environment.

You're not wrong. My perspective from someone who wants to understand this new AI landscape in good faith. The water issue isn't the show stopper it's presented as. It's an externality like you discuss. And in comparison to other water usage, data centers don't match the doomsday narrative presented. I know when I see it now, I mentally discount or stop reading. Electricity though seems to be real, at least for the a…

> It's an externality like you discuss.

It's not even an externality? They just pay market price for water. You can argue the market price is priced badly (e.g., maybe prices are set by the state), but that doesn't make it an externality. The benefits/costs are still accrued by (and internal to) buyer and seller.

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