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AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

tomwphillips.co.uk

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Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#2
Many big names in the industry have long advocated for the idea that LLM-s are a fundamental dead end. Many have also gone on and started companies to look for a new way forward. However, if you're hip deep in stock options, along with your reputation, you'll hardly want to break the mirage. So here we are.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#6
"As a technologist I want to solve problems effectively (by bringing about the desired, correct result), efficiently (with minimal waste) and without harm (to people or the environment)."

As a businessman, I want to make money. E.g. by automating away technologists and their pesky need for excellence and ethics.

On a less cynical note, I am not sure that selling quality is sustainable in the long term, because then you'd be selling less and earning less. You'd get outcompeted by cheap slop that's acceptable by the general population.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#8
I like the conclusion; like for me, Whisper has radically improved CC on my video content. I used to spend a few hours translating my scripts into CCs, and tooling was poor.

Now I run it through whisper in a couple minutes, give one quick pass to correct a few small hallucinations and misspellings, and I'm done.

There are big wins in AI. But those don't pump the bubble once they're solved.

And the thing that made Whisper more approachable for me was when someone spent the time to refine a great UI for it (MacWhisper).

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#9
post #2

Many big names in the industry have long advocated for the idea that LLM-s are a fundamental dead end. Many have also gone on and started companies to look for a new way forward. However, if you're hip deep in stock options, along with your reputation, you'll hardly want to break the mirage. So here we are.

I have some idea of what the way forward is going to look like but I don't want to accelerate the development of such a dangerous technology so I haven't told anyone about it. The people working on AI are very smart and they will solve the associated challenges soon enough. The problem of how to slow down the development of these technologies- a political problem- is much more pressing right now.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#10
I'm surprised the companies fascinated with AGI don't devote some resources to neuroscience - it seems really difficult to develop a true artificial intelligence when we don't know much about how our own works.

Like it's not even clear if LLMs/Transformers are even theoretically capable of AGI, LeCun is famously sceptical of this.

I think we still lack decades of basic research before we can hope to build an AGI.

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