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Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

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Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#471

Post by sdenton4 »

adastra22 wrote: post #145
sdenton4 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see a fair amount of bullshit in the LLM space though, where even cursory consideration would connect the methods back to well-known principles in ML (and even statistics!) to measure model quality and progress. There's a lot of 'woo, it's new! we don't know how to measure it exactly but we think it's groundbreaking!' which is simply wrong. From where I sit, the generative models provide more flexibility but tend t…

I think we have a vocabulary problem here, because I am having a hard time understanding what you are trying to say. You appear to be comparing apples to oranges. A generation task is not a categorization task. Machine learning solves categorization problems. Generative AI uses model trained by machine learning methods, but in a very different architecture to solve generative problems. Completely different and incomp…

And yet, people very often find themselves using generative models for categorization and information retrieval tasks...

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#472

Post by wilg »

Root_Denied wrote: post #89
wilg wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arguing about the definitions of words is rarely useful.

Except AI already had a clear definition well before it started being used as a way to inflate valuations and push marketing narratives. If nothing else it's been a sci-fi topic for more than a century. There's connotations, cultural baggage, and expectations from the general population about what AI is and what it's capable of, most of which isn't possible or applicable to the current crop of "AI" tools. You can't j…

I do not care what anyone thinks the definition is, nor should you.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#473

Post by joshellington »

To throw two pennies in the ocean of this comment section - I’d argue we still lack schematic-level understanding of what “intelligence” even is or how it works. Not to mention how it interfaces with “consciousness”, and their likely relation to each other. Which kinda invalidates a lot of predictions/discussions of “AGI” or even in general “AI”. How can one identify Artificial Intelligence/AGI without a modicum of understanding of what the hell intelligence even is.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#474

Post by vannucci »

joshellington wrote: post #473

To throw two pennies in the ocean of this comment section - I’d argue we still lack schematic-level understanding of what “intelligence” even is or how it works. Not to mention how it interfaces with “consciousness”, and their likely relation to each other. Which kinda invalidates a lot of predictions/discussions of “AGI” or even in general “AI”. How can one identify Artificial Intelligence/AGI without a modicum of u…

This so much this. We don’t even have a good model for how invertebrate minds work or a good theory of mind. We can keep imitating understanding but it’s far from any actual intelligence.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#475

Post by nearbuy »

jb1991 wrote: post #424
vonneumannstan wrote: post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>GPT by any definition of AGI is not AGI. You are ignoring the word "general" in AGI. GPT is extremely niche in what it does. Definitions in the 90s basically required passing the Turing Test which was probably passed by GPT3.5. Current definitions are too broad but something like 'better than the average human at most tasks' seems to be basically passed by say GPT5, definitions like 'better than all humans at all ta…

The Turing Test was never about AGI.

That's pretty much exactly what Alan Turing made the Turing test for. From the Wikipedia entry:

> The Turing test, originally called the imitation game by Alan Turing in 1949, is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to that of a human.

> The test was introduced by Turing in his 1950 paper "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" while working at the University of Manchester. It opens with the words: "I propose to consider the question, 'Can machines think?'"

> This question, Turing believed, was one that could actually be answered. In the remainder of the paper, he argued against the major objections to the proposition that "machines can think".

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#476

Post by ainch »

adastra22 wrote: post #145
sdenton4 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see a fair amount of bullshit in the LLM space though, where even cursory consideration would connect the methods back to well-known principles in ML (and even statistics!) to measure model quality and progress. There's a lot of 'woo, it's new! we don't know how to measure it exactly but we think it's groundbreaking!' which is simply wrong. From where I sit, the generative models provide more flexibility but tend t…

I think we have a vocabulary problem here, because I am having a hard time understanding what you are trying to say. You appear to be comparing apples to oranges. A generation task is not a categorization task. Machine learning solves categorization problems. Generative AI uses model trained by machine learning methods, but in a very different architecture to solve generative problems. Completely different and incomp…

I think you're overstating the distinction between ML and generation - plenty of ML methods involve generative models. Even basic linear regression with a squared loss can also be framed as a generative model derived by assuming Gaussian noise. Probabilistic PCA, HMMs, GMMs etc... generation has been a core part of ML for over 20 years.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#477

Post by encroach »

yodsanklai wrote: post #448
zurfer wrote: post #401

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well you wouldn't bet all your assets because it would be an illiquid market that could only resolve in your favor in earliest 80 years. If you're really serious about it put the money into a prediction market. Poly market has multiple AGI bets.

I see only one with 4% chance in 2025 (obviously...). And AGI is defined as "OpenAI announces they reached AGI". https://polymarket.com/event/openai-announces-it-has-achieve...

Here's 46% for 2030. It's had $350k in volume across the 4 markets.

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoaiagi/openai-achieves-agi/oaia...

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#478

Post by scotty79 »

matusp wrote: post #309
superconduct123 wrote: post #233

I always get a weird feeling when AI researchers and CS people start talking about comparisons between human brains and AI/computers Why is there a presumption that we (as people who have only studied CS) know enough about biology/neuroscience/evolution to make these comparisons/parallels/analogies? I enjoy the discussions but I always get the thought in the back of my head "...remember you're listening to 2 CS major…

We should completely strip all this talk from AI as a field (and get rid of that name as well). It just causes endless confusion, especially for general audience. In the end, the whole shtick with LLMs is that we train matrices to predict next tokens. You can explain this entire concept without invoking AGI, Roko's basilisk, the nature of human consciousness, and all the other mumbo jumbo that tries so hard to make t…

But people love misguided narratives and analogies. How else should we kill time when we are to dumb to accelerate inevitable progress and just need to wait for it?

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#480

Post by justinwp »

sarchertech wrote: post #350
rootusrootus wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because then it wouldn't be a challenge and nobody would care about the achievement.

I’m curious do ultramarathoners feel the same way about the rest of the race past 20 miles?

the split would be first 80 and las t 20 miles +-10 miles.
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