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Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

nytimes.com

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Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#471

Post by sievebrain »

gonehome wrote: post #149
xienze wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, what if? You're essentially arguing that if our benevolent overlords decide that the democratic process might result in something unfavorable that they should do the wise thing and ignore the will of the people.

I'm arguing in favor of representative government where elected people decide on what makes the most sense for complex issues. Relying on advice from experts, but ultimately making the call that's in the country's best interest.

So far every expert prediction about Brexit had been wrong. The UK was meant to be in a deep recession by now, remember?

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#472

Post by dragonwriter »

BossingAround wrote: post #70

All I can think of is, why? I don't know what were the main points against the deal, but the only reason I can think of that the deal is rejected is that Corbin, or whoever else would come out of this kerfuffle victorious, wants to re-issue vote on leaving the EU in order to stay..? This is insanely puzzling to me, and very much unexpected. Can someone ELI5..? Or maybe ELI15 would be enough.

> All I can think of is, why?

Because Remainers don't want Brexit at all, and Leavers mostly don't want it on the terms of the available deal (split between those who want a better deal and would prefer remaining to leaving on the offered terms and those who would prefer no deal to the offered terms.)

> This is insanely puzzling to me, and very much unexpected.

That no one liked the deal May managed to negotiate has been clear for some time—it's why the vote was delayed for weeks of desperate effort to find some votes—though it being by far the biggest loss on any vote for a British Government pretty much ever is somewhat impressive. But it's also a sign that May wanted the loss on record—they had to have a whip count and known it would be a horrible defeat and yet went forward with it.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#473

Post by rndmize »

rtkwe wrote: post #270

The issue with the referendum since the beginning was leave was such a nebulous cloud for the entire range of Brexit from barely-there-Brexit to Britian-stands-alone(-get-those-people-out)-Brexit while remain had a very definite meaning. Because of that everyone could pour all their displeasure at anything wrong into leave and think the deal would take care of it. That's why I'm always annoyed at the 'another referen…

I'm actually not sure the nebulousness of the original Leave plan is the problem - if it was, I'd expect significant changes in where people stand on the issue, or fear of the No Deal option, which doesn't seem to be the case.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/0...

> Overall, 41% of people now think it was right for Britain to vote Leave, while 47% believe it was the wrong decision – but this does not necessarily translate into support for stopping the process.

> Asked what we should do next, 28% of people want to stop Brexit entirely, while 8% would hold a second referendum to decide matters.

---

> Some suggest Government had hoped the risk of No Deal would force support for the deal on the table. But while No Deal is an unpopular option, it doesn't necessarily seem as intimidating as expected.

> Part of this appears to be a lack of understanding - only 56% of people realize that "No Deal" means exactly that, leaving the European Union without any deal at all. Strangely, 26% think it that it actually includes a deal, to ensure a smooth transition or a formal transition period.

> While 49% say they would be worried by a No Deal Brexit, these are overwhelmingly Remain voters - 38% of the public as a whole, and 70% of Leave voters the idea doesn’t worry them.

> Three quarters (76%) of Leave voters think warnings of No Deal disruption are exaggerated or entirely invented. Put simply, Leave voters did not believe warnings about the damage Brexit could cause in 2016, and don't believe them now.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#474

Post by growlist »

pas wrote: post #444
growlist wrote: post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I voted leave, and would be quite happy with no deal - and the gangsterism of the EU in the negotiations has only stiffened my resolve, and I gather there are plenty of others that feel similarly; this is one of the reasons that some remainers are scared of a second referendum - their is a chance the leave vote might actually increase, and then they'll really be up the spout because any further shenanigans on their p…

> gangsterism could you explain that a bit?

The EU's plan from the start has been to make the process so painful as to dissuade anyone else from trying. Martin Selmayr was boasting that he has managed to trap the UK.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#475

Post by tonyedgecombe »

megaremote wrote: post #420
simonbarker87 wrote: post #47

I voted remain but I spend a lot of time with group of people who voted leave. Some of them have realised the leave campaigners basically had no evidence to back up their claims and so feel lied to but, sadly, the others are just angry - and I mean really angry. They want out at all costs because the “EU is telling us what to do”. Revoking article 50 would be a bad idea for civil stability but going through with it s…

> Revoking article 50 would be a bad idea for civil stability What are they going to do? Lets be honest, the UK are the most impassioned people of all. They will not do anything. They aren't French, they aren't Spanish. Maybe they will have an extra cup of tea.

Especially when you consider it's the old that voted for Brexit. This stuff about riots is overplayed, if it was going to happen it would have started already.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#476

Post by philwelch »

hardlianotion wrote: post #431
philwelch wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If only for the reason that it would set an exceptionally bad precedent and everybody would want their own deal, to pick and choose the parts of EU membership that are favorable to them, leading the EU to implode. The UK already picked and chose the parts of EU membership they wanted. They opted out of the Euro, they opted out of Schengen, they opted out of the Charter of Fundamental Rights--all of this, and more,…

Those negotiations were not made on the basis of threatening to leave the EU. (edited for clarity)

British Euroskepticism has been a political force for decades and the risk of a Brexit has always been an implicit source of negotiating leverage for the UK.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#477

Post by growlist »

DDub wrote: post #470
growlist wrote: post #433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Edit: I got a bit carried away.

Is it not an implementation of double jeopardy? Since the referendum new facts have come to light, that of what an exit deal would look like. New facts should allow for a new vote. If remain had won, there would be no new facts so why would another vote be justified?

Do you honestly think it is healthy for democracy if the UK is forced into remaining?

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#478

Post by gpderetta »

philwelch wrote: post #415
RafiqM wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What is preventing the referendum from being declared stupid and that the UK gov't is not going to do it Essentially, they want to honor the will of the people. The will of the people, by democratic vote, was to leave the EU. With that in mind, they have no options that are in any way good: 1) Push ahead and exit with no-deal (economically disastrous) 2) Push ahead and exit with the proposed deal (economically bad…

So, option 2 (May's deal) is off the table. It's not gonna happen. That was today's vote. Maybe if they stall for another couple months and vote on it again in February or early March it might force the issue, but I doubt it. Option 4 (second referendum) isn't necessarily on the table, because the UK cannot hold a referendum in the time they have left until the Article 50 deadline in March. They would have to ask the…

They can invoke and revoke at will. The other side can just refuse to do any further negotiations because of bad faith, leaving staying in or hard exit as the only options.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#479

Post by tonyedgecombe »

djmobley wrote: post #354
PaulRobinson wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a complicated topic, but a short and overly basic version: There are many people in the UK - as in the US, as in most of the West, actually - for whom neoliberalism has not been kind. They see immigrants getting jobs and struggle to make ends meet and have been told via various right wing media outlets (in the UK, principally the Daily Mail, Daily Express, Sun, Telegraph and Times newspapers), that there are…

As you say, it's a complicated topic. > However the UK gets far more economic benefit than it spends, and the poorest of communities like South Wales have had far more spent on it in targeted social programmes by the EU than has ever been spent by Westminster. The UK contributes more to the EU budget than it receives back. Ceteris paribus, the UK could fund all the same programmes, and have huge buckets of cash left…

Or the jobs will disappear.

Re: Brexit Deal Fails in Parliament

#480

Post by hardlianotion »

r00fus wrote: post #340
RafiqM wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What is preventing the referendum from being declared stupid and that the UK gov't is not going to do it Essentially, they want to honor the will of the people. The will of the people, by democratic vote, was to leave the EU. With that in mind, they have no options that are in any way good: 1) Push ahead and exit with no-deal (economically disastrous) 2) Push ahead and exit with the proposed deal (economically bad…

Why would #3 and #4 be suicide? Maybe for PM May, but doubtful the Remain MPs and those who "found out how bad Leave was" would actually claim a political boost?

On the Conservative side - many of the remain MPs come from leave constituencies. Also, as a party, the Conservatives have a strong leave bias. If the leave does not happen, it is hard to see the Tories making it back to power for a considerable time.
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