Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel • Hacker News Board

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#471

Post by Johnny555 » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 6:57 AM UTC

ekianjo wrote: post #379

titzer wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is a 100 mile stretch of I-80... Logistically speaking, empty places are really, really easy to build rail through. (Politically they may not be). These rail networks already exist, but they are often not dual line, aren't engineered to support fast trains, and there aren't passenger rail options that utilize them. All of these factors are due to consistent under investment because of chick-and-egg and politi…

You can have way more passagers on a highway than on railroads though. Capacity wise cars are the better choice because its a continuous flow. Plus, they get you where you need to be, not just where the track stops.

No, you can't. A rail line can carry many more passengers/hour than cars, even self driving cars.

From https://letsgola.wordpress.com/2014/08/24/capacity-101/

A typical freeway lane today can carry around 3600 passengers per hour. Reduce the headway between cars to 1 second and put 4 passengers in every car and that goes up to 14,400 pax/hr

However, run a heavy rail line and run trains every 3 minutes, and it can carry 54,000 pax/h, or 90,300 pax/hr crush load

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#472

Post by Johnny555 » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 6:59 AM UTC

jedberg wrote: post #263

emidln wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When I lived in the Metro DC area (Bailey's Crossroads in NoVA) with a 1-2 year old we kept that stuff in the bottom of our stroller (mostly in a single medium-sized bag). We took the stroller everywhere via buses and trains. We very rarely drove our vehicle while living in DC since a couple grocery stores, several restaurants, and several department stores were within easy walking distance (about a mile) from our ho…

Yes, we've done all that too when traveling. But it's a lot easier to just hop in the car and go, knowing that all that stuff is already there.

It's only easier if you know you'll have parking at your destination. If you live in a city with convenient transit service, you don't need to worry about parking.

And if you want to take a long stroll down the waterfront, you don't need to return to your car to go home, you just hop on a different train.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#473

Post by Jyaif » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 7:13 AM UTC

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #284

Jyaif wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no good reason; it's likely what they'll do.

Never will happen. Latency is a law of nature. 60mph === 8.8 ft / 100ms. Near misses and close calls with unexpected objects can't afford the additional delay of a radio round trip that may or may not be working to make safety critical decisions. All situational awareness has to be handled on board for immediate response when needed.

Obviously the operators won't control directly the vehicule :-)

The operators will have a map on which they click to set the vehicule's destination, and the console will show what will be the exact path of the car, and ask for confirmation.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#474

Post by dx034 » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 7:13 AM UTC

ashleyn wrote: post #411

chrischen wrote: post #408

It'd be interesting to see how this compares in overall efficiency to properly implemented and comprehensive mass transit systems in a dense urban environment. The Tokyo metro alone (not including the JR trains, Tokyo Subway—a separate but compatible subway system, and other train transit systems which totals over 40 million daily users) handles 6.8 million passengers daily just in one city . https://en.wikipedia.org…

The immediate benefit I can envision is being on the highway more than the city. I regularly do a three hour drive between two states and automating the highway portion alone would be a godsend. I've actually considered getting a Volvo S90 for this purpose, but apparently the tech still isn't really where I want it to be, which is: get on the highway, press a button, don't touch anything until the final exit.

The Audi A8 appears to be the one with the most advanced system sold this year. From the reports I read, auto pilot functions are a step ahead of Tesla. The big difference is that they don't require you to pay direct attention as they define the system as a level 3 car.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#475

Post by flukus » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 7:20 AM UTC

landryraccoon wrote: post #332

aidenn0 wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I still think that proper self-driving cars are such a paradigm shift that predictions of how it will work are still up in the air. For example, right now I live on the west coast and my parents live on the east coast. 4 kids, Minimum of 40 hour drive or $3500 flight. Here's one tiny example: I can work remotely for a few weeks and my boss doesn't mind. The kids sleep for 8+ hours at night. Friday, Saturday, Sunday,…

> Car usage will go up by an order of magnitude because a major cost of driving isn't the dollars, but the time. This is why I think self driving cars will make traffic worse, not better. The more comfortable it is to be inside a car and the less people mind long car rides, the more people will drive (self driving or otherwise). If road infrastructure is the same, that necessarily means a much higher density of cars…

> The more comfortable it is to be inside a car and the less people mind long car rides

There are places with comfortable public transport today but it seems most prefer would prefer a 40 minute drive than a 1 hour train ride even though it frees up their time.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#476

Post by dx034 » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 7:24 AM UTC

jacksmith21006 wrote: post #347

edshiro wrote: post #68

If Waymo's tech is years ahead of the competition (say 18-24 months ahead minimum) then I think a lot of the self-driving companies and car manufacturers in the US will be having cold sweats. This may not be a winner-take-all market (I don't know honestly...) but I see this lead up enabling Waymo to capture significant market share in the US in regions where laws towards autonomous vehicles are friendly. One way the…

The road for car makers is way, way longer than ride sharing. Thru ride sharing things will be so far along that there is little chance the car makers will be competitive. Plus the future is NOT buying cars.

A lot of people say that buying cars will be a thing of the past but I doubt that. People don't just own a car because they have to, they like having a car. I currently don't own one and use a lot of ride sharing and rental cars. And I'm seriously considering buying a car soon. Even with a dense network of cars it's still a hassle to always look for an available car and you don't know what model you'll end up with. The same goes for cleanliness or any issues with the car.

I really doubt that car sales will fall a lot.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#477

Post by Johnny555 » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 7:28 AM UTC

kjksf wrote: post #415

chiefofgxbxl wrote: post #410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To detail one particular addition of traffic to the roads: students - with self-driving cars, students from K-12 may much rather want to have the independence to hop in a car rather than ride a "stinky school bus". Parents may end up loving it, especially those who already drive their kids to school. And I'm sure the school districts would love self-driving cars, because it means they can pass the travel expenses ont…

The self-driving platform will financially nudge you in the right direction. Currently Uber charges more during rush hour. It's rather obvious that self-driving operator will implement similar price discrimination e.g. $10 if you drive alone, $5 if you share with one or more people. And the more they want you to share, the bigger the surcharge e.g. if $10 vs. $5 doesn't have desired effect then maybe $20 vs $5 will.…

Why would the self-driving car vendor charge $20 if you ride by yourself or $5 if you share with one other person? They'd be getting less revenue for a longer, more time consuming trip due to the need to pick up and drop off the 2nd passenger.

I could see them charging something like $10 for one person and $7 each for 2 (which is close to actual Lyft pricing). That way they give a price break to the user, while they themselves also make more money, so they have an incentive to offer that pricing even if the trip takes longer, or they can't find a 2nd rider.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#478

Post by arthurofbabylon » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 7:32 AM UTC

Yo I have the best hands-free, no-attention transit system. Already. It’s called the fucking train.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#479

Post by dx034 » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 7:36 AM UTC

eggpy wrote: post #86

juliesulti wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are anecdotes of Google Maps causing traffic, routing people to dead ends, etc. There was the incident where Google Maps routed a lot of interstate drivers down a dirt road serving a prison. Last week in Oakland, Google routed drivers away from traffic on I-880, onto Embarcadero where the bridge is closed for construction. Last week, Google refused to route me over the open, clear Sonora Pass between Modesto an…

I wasn't aware of these, but with anecdotes like these then it makes perfect sense to have available remote human overrides! I don't mean to insinuate that maps is perfect, just that the number of times the cars will find themselves in this specific situation is probably minimal.

Also local human overrides. I as a passenger want to determine the route to take. Maybe I just don't like the recommended route, maybe I know that it won't work. There's no reason why the passenger shouldn't be able to determine the route.

Re: Waymo now testing its self-driving cars on public roads with no one at the wheel

#480

Post by taneq » Wed, Nov 08, 2017, 7:39 AM UTC

flukus wrote: post #475

landryraccoon wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Car usage will go up by an order of magnitude because a major cost of driving isn't the dollars, but the time. This is why I think self driving cars will make traffic worse, not better. The more comfortable it is to be inside a car and the less people mind long car rides, the more people will drive (self driving or otherwise). If road infrastructure is the same, that necessarily means a much higher density of cars…

> The more comfortable it is to be inside a car and the less people mind long car rides There are places with comfortable public transport today but it seems most prefer would prefer a 40 minute drive than a 1 hour train ride even though it frees up their time.

> it seems most prefer would prefer a 40 minute drive than a 1 hour train ride even though it frees up their time.

A train ride frees your time up less than an autonomous car ride because on a train you have no personal space. You always have to be aware of people around you and where your own belongings are, watch for your stop, etc. In a car you can focus on whatever you're doing.