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The future of software development is software developers

codemanship.wordpress.com

461–470 of 588 posts

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#461
> The foreseeable future of software development is one where perhaps “AI” – in a much more modest form (e.g., a Java coding assistant built atop a basic language model) – is used to generate prototypes, and maybe for inline completion on production code and those sorts of minor things.

This...

I have said this in multiple other comments and I 100% agree with the author's take.

I feel like AI can be good for prototyping sometimes but that's about it.

The reason is simple but I just don't trust AI system from not breaking given their volatile nature and I wouldn't expect to be paying for AI generated code that much/zero to be honest

And I will treat other people the same way I wish to be treated (golden rule) so why would I use AI when I can do things by my hand? (There are also 1000's of other discussions I can point in the moral,financial,even technological impacts of the whole situation)

That being said, prototyping as author pointed out feels the only good use to me because at that point you are building it for yourself or a small community. I think a good use of AI can be to build open source prototypes of softwares and if you really like something, one can rebuild it or build it the way they like it as an example.

Prototyping can be similar to the drag n drop and other things and honestly wordpress did reduce the number of programmers needed to maintain a website and for good measure, I think AI is similar to this then anything else and even then small models will win as author states and so the financial point of these companies training these usually becomes moot.

So till the time being, I use these free/subsidized websites to get prototypes to be generated but I feel as if long term, I can find projects which heavily resonate with me and I can build them/learn languages catered to them and build my mental model of thinking around them

Although I must admit, prototyping using AI models definitely gives me Imposter syndrome and I sometimes feel that perhaps its a learning opportunity and that I can perhaps instead spend hours but I don't really know too much about it so its something that I am figuring out as we speak

Like there is this feeling that I can spend more hours and feel more "proud" of what I did if I did it without AI than if I did with AI since perhaps the journey matters too. I really don't know but just weighing all my thoughts on the matter as I thought about it really closely once.

Edit: although I am not sure about calling AI wordpress-like since then it would mean that I am giving significance to AI similar to wordpress, honestly I respect wordpress more but not sure, perhaps they are similar, perhaps they are not, I don't really know perhaps but what I do know is that the financial impact of the AI bubble is gonna impact all of us negatively.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#462

Most people in this thread are quibbling about the exact degree of utility LLMs provide, which a tedious argument. What's more interesting to me is, per the article, the concern regarding everyone who is leaning into LLMs without realizing (or downplaying) the exorbitant, externalized cost. Our current LLM usage is being subsidized to the point of being free by outside investment. One day when the well runs dry, you…

There's a lot in this comment that doesn't exactly fit. First of all, there could be other solutions, such as B2B subsidizing individual user plans, or more fine grained model tiering per cost. Also, yes you can get some access for free, but even today the higher tiers of proprietary models is around $200/mo for individual users, which might still be subsidized but is definitely not free, and is quite a chunk of mone…

You are looking at it from the individual's PoV, but the OP is using the bird view from high above. It is the total amount of effort deployed today already to provide all the existing AI services, which is enormous. Data centers, electricity, planning/attention (entities focused on AI have less time to work on something else), components (Nvidia shortage, RAM shortage), etc.

This is not about finance, but about the real economy and how much of it, and/or its growth, is diverted to AI. The real economy is being reshaped, influencing a lot of other sectors independent of AI use itself. AI heavily competes with other uses for many kinds of actual real resources - without having equally much to show for it yet.

Just an example: https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/05/20/1116327/ai-energ... (it is worth skip-reading it all, the headline on its own is useless)

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#463

Most people in this thread are quibbling about the exact degree of utility LLMs provide, which a tedious argument. What's more interesting to me is, per the article, the concern regarding everyone who is leaning into LLMs without realizing (or downplaying) the exorbitant, externalized cost. Our current LLM usage is being subsidized to the point of being free by outside investment. One day when the well runs dry, you…

Writing my comment on this post, I kind of feel like LLM's are like similar to wordpress/drag and drop tool although its more inconsistent too perhaps not sure

I 100% share the codependent path too and had written a similar comment some 2-3 days ago but these AI companies which provide are either seriously negative/loss making subsidizing or they are barely net zero. I doubt that it will continue and so the bubble will burst I guess and prices of these will rise perhaps

We will see perhaps something like google which can feed on advertising can perhaps still provide such subsidies for a longer time but the fact of the matter is that I have no alleigance to any model as some might have and I will simply shift to the cheapest thing which can still provide me / be enough for my queries or prototypes mostly I suppose.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#464
post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree the ELIZA effect is strong, additionally I think it is some kind of natural selection. I feel like LLM's are specifically selected to impress people that have a lot of influence. People like investors and CEO's. Because a "AI" that does not impress this section of the population does not get adopted widely. This is one of the reasons I think AI will never really be an expert as it does not need to be. It only…

I got this wild idea a short while ago and your comment helped cement it: probably one of the reasons why languages like Lisp are not "successful" has something to do with the impressability factor? If the people with money (and the decision) do not understand the tech or are not able to even fake that understanding, will they bet their money on it?

  > If the people with money (and the decision) do not understand the tech or are not able to even fake that understanding, will they bet their money on it?
aka marketing

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a good point but you can see the price "ceiling" by examining the prices for PCs that can effectively run local models. A DGX Spark is ~$4k (plus power) for example. That's not nothing, but it's still not very much to pay compared to e.g. the cost of a FTE.

That can't come anywhere close to running the current SotA models, though.

Most things don't require SotA models.

But still, right now, you don't have to worry as even these SotA models are subsidized really so much and you can just use them for free on websites and then if you don't even want to type, go use a cheaper model or even a free model with something like opencode even to then act as a mini agent of things

Usually I just end up it being more focused in a single file which isn't really the best practise but its usually for prototyping purposes anyway so it ends up being really good

uv scripts are good for python, and I usually create golang single main.go files as well as I feel like it can be a binary, compile fast and cross compilation and still easy and simple so yeah :)

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#466

Most people in this thread are quibbling about the exact degree of utility LLMs provide, which a tedious argument. What's more interesting to me is, per the article, the concern regarding everyone who is leaning into LLMs without realizing (or downplaying) the exorbitant, externalized cost. Our current LLM usage is being subsidized to the point of being free by outside investment. One day when the well runs dry, you…

I always liken it to using Uber in ~2012. It was fun to get around major metro areas for dirt cheap. But then prices rose dramatically over the next decade+ as the company was forced to wean itself off of VC subsidies.

... and people kept using Uber.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#467

I think "The Bitter Lesson" is relevant here [1]. This wave IS different. It isn't a matter of "if" but "when". I am a long-time software developer too... but I am strongly encouraging people to embrace the future now and get creative in finding ways to adapt. There will always be demand for smart and creative people. BUT ... if you don't look up and look around you right now at some point you will be irrelevant. Als…

why didn't ready to eat meals available so cheaply at any grocery store make the local mom and pop restaurants irrelevant?

People like experiences!

Plus those meals are disgusting! :-)

Plus plus… those meals are actually expensive!!

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not that guy lol. Why don’t you respond to my points rather than attack me.

> Why don’t you respond to my points Because I believe you have a "flexible" relationship to the truth, so I'm not wasting any more time.

Like you bs accusations? Alright then. Good day to you sir.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#469
post #3

I really really want this to be true. I want to be relevant. I don’t know what to do if all those predictions are true and there is no need (or very little need) for programmers anymore. But something tells me “this time is different” is different this time for real. Coding AIs design software better than me, review code better than me, find hard-to-find bugs better than me, plan long-running projects better than me,…

More than any other effect they have LLMs breed something called "learned helplessness". You just listed a few things it may stay better than you at, and a few things that it is not better than you at and never will be . Planning long running projects and deciding are things only you can do well!! Humans manage costs. We look out for our future. We worry. We have excitement, and pride. It wants you to think none of t…

You are still in denial of what an LLM actually is capable of in the near-mid term.

In the current architecture there are mathmatical limitations on what it can do with information. However, tool use and external orchestration allow it to work around many (maybe all) those limitations.

The current models have brittle parts and some bad tendencies.. but they will continue to eat up the executive thought ladder.

I think it is better to understand this and position yourself higher and higher on that chain while learning what are the weak areas in the current generation of models.

Your line of thinking is like hiding in a corner while the water is rising. You are right, it is a safe corner, but probably not for long.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn’t this the same type of emotional response he’s getting accused for? You’re speculating that he will be “punished” just as he speculated for you. There’s emotions on both sides and the goal is to call it out, throw it to the side and cut through into the substance. The attitude should be: Which one of us is actually right? Rather than: I’m right and you’re a fucking idiot attitude I see everywhere.

Mate, I could not care less if he/her got "punished" or not. I was just assuming what might be driving someone to go and try and answer each and every one of my posts with very low quality comments, reeking of desperation and "elon-style" humour (cheap, cringe puns). You are assuming too much here.

Maybe he was just assuming something negative as well.

Both certainly look very negative and over the top.

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