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Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

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Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#461

Post by cscurmudgeon »

amrocha wrote: post #351
cscurmudgeon wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> replacing cars with bikes and trains 1. What if you are disabled and have no train connectivity? 2. What about workers who need to travel by car to build trains? What about support workers who help those workers? And so on? See what happens if we stop virtue signaling and think for a few more seconds? Please stop with this zero-order thinking and spend a few seconds thinking of first-order and second-order effects…

>What if you are disabled and have no train connectivity? Ok, then you can have a car. Everyone else still can't. >What about workers who need to travel by car to build trains? What about support workers who help those workers? And so on? Company provided shuttle buses. See what happens if we stop virtue signaling and think for a few more seconds?

> , then you can have a car

See how silly that sounds? These are just two things I thought of quickly. You will end up with ten thousand rules and caveats if we think a bit more. Why wasn't this included in the original comment? If you propose rules, make them at least 50% complete!

> Company provided shuttle buses.

TIL buses are equal to trains and cycles. Also shuttles will pollute more if they are sparsely occupied which is common.

You should read about Mao's idiocy. We shouldn't repeat similar idiocy in 2023.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#462

Post by Aerbil313 »

datameta wrote: post #152
moffkalast wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The more you think about it the more it becomes plainly obvious how unfathomably screwed we genuinely are.

If policies don't drastically change. Just imagine norwegian electric car subsidies but happening everywhere decades straight - for solar, wind, tidal, battery, pumped water stations, sand batteries. Perhaps a Sahara -> Europe solar megaproject (I remember a good discussion on HN about that). Separately, I wonder if a geoengineering megaproject is more likely to be funded than small incremental changes due to politic…

Take a genuine look at the science. Scientists themselves are freaking out. There’s no way out of the famine and heat and just the general Collapse that will kill billions.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#463

Post by timwaagh »

jokoon wrote: post #98

It's odd how everytime somebody mentions slashing oil production by 50 or 75%, people are immediately up in arms. Same for red meat or cheap air travel. Western rich countries have too many really spoiled consumers. It's weird to say, but we should crash the economy if it can slow down climate change. I mean there are plenty people in other parts of the world who don't have such a high standard of living, and it's no…

This sort of fanaticism is why there is no progress on this issue. Let's start by banning low hanging fruit like cryptocurrencies, private jets and superyachts. If it's insufficient we might have to do more, like build sufficient high speed rail and force the third world to contain their population boom, because if that isn't contained nothing will work. Only then would it be reasonable to go after ordinary people.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#464

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

rc_mob wrote: post #70
wredue wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just checked on them a few days ago. Their current messaging is back to: “Climate change is a hoax for science grants and political power”

Many issues over humanity it has been the case that someone lied for power. Insane that these idiots picked the one time a problem is actually really real as the time they decided to call out the tactic.

> Insane that these idiots picked the one time a problem is actually really real as the time they decided to call out the tactic.

If you take every shot you're probably going to miss a lot.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#465

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

bsaul wrote: post #179
kurthr wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

... and based on that chart are now hotter than any time in the last 100k years, heading into the last few million. A few 10s (of million) years at +25c are going to be the "new normal"? I'm trying to understand the point. The rate of change is quite dramatic, and the last time (Eemian) there was anything like this there were "rapid" 12c oscillations. Humans didn't exist. I suspect most current plant/animal species a…

Don't know about op's point, but seeing those kinds of graphs makes you really think twice about the hypothesis that stopping any kind of human activity will have any effect on a phenomenon that's been naturally occuring for hundreds of millions of years, on one order of magnitude greater than what we're observing (talking about degrees variation, not taking speed into account).

> talking about degrees variation, not taking speed into account

If you discount this of course we aren't effecting anything unprecedented. We were once a ball of magma. But, as has been pointed out here, rate and cause of change is incredibly important. A swing set and an explosion will both launch you into the air.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#466

Post by dopidopHN »

RandomLensman wrote: post #312
dopidopHN wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t you think oil will keep getting more expensive? That what I had in mind. It seems more and more costly to extract it.

Oil will eventually be very cheap because demand will be a lot less than it is now.

I never heard that projection before. Because demands will plumet?

Then It might just be not cost effective at all to go dig deeper or use more complex process to get it.

How does that works with current recent trends? Globally we consumed more oil in 2023 than 2022 for instance.

If demand plumet somehow … can we still support a extraction industry ? Recently ( pre 2019 ) shale gaz was worth it because of high prices… then it switched again to lower price and extracting it made little sense ( till next time )

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#467

Post by thinkingtoilet »

Gareth321 wrote: post #396
thinkingtoilet wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This will likely result in an [increase]( https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/6/1/014 ....) of arable land. This is my point. We already have major immigration/refugee issues all over the world. Even if we are 100% certain climate change will result in more farm land for humanity, the issue is where are the people now and where will that farm land be then? Do you think Russia (or any other country)…

Famine in Africa is an existential risk with or without global warming. Currently 822 million people are estimated to be malnourished. As per the citations above, global warming will provide only a slightly elevated risk of famine relative to present day. Overpopulation in Africa is a problem to be solved either way. Ameliorating global warming won’t make any meaningful improvement to that.

I genuinely don't understand how your comment is a response to mine. Where are we going to move the billions of people living in coastal South East Asia when oceans rise and their land becomes un-farmable due to climate change?

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#468

Post by badtension »

Aerbil313 wrote: post #460
berniedurfee wrote: post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately, humanity repeats itself.

This time it won’t because there aint any fuel left.

That would be a cool story plot: starting civilization again with all the knowledge but none of the fossil fuel power. Solarpunk?

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#469

Post by mikewarot »

acdha wrote: post #302
mikewarot wrote: post #272

Clearly we need to solve this problem, climate change is real, and it's here. However, we can't just stop using oil. It would lead to the death (by starvation) of most of humanity, mostly in the poorer parts of the world. We need a well managed transition away from fossil fuel inputs. One of the first things that should be shifted, as much as is possible, is from Industrial Farming which uses massive chemical inputs,…

> However, we can't just stop using oil The single best move we could make would be progressively taxing it: tell everyone that today is the cheapest a gallon of gas will ever be, with guaranteed 20% annual price increases with the tax revenue devoted to assisting low-income households decarbonize. That would tell every business to start investing in alternatives or efficiency improvements, homeowners would shift tow…

Gasoline use is just a small fraction of the demand for oil, most of it has other uses, and those aren't as flexible on demand as fuel for cars. I'd be willing to bet that they'd start flaring it off if demand collapsed, just to keep the refineries going.

Fertilizer is a major sink of petrochemicals, and there really aren't any substitutes available on a large enough scale.

Re: Earth had hottest 3-months on record; unprecedented sea temps & extreme weather

#470

Post by thomasahle »

tptacek wrote: post #407
waffleiron wrote: post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Per capita data makes sense. CO2 emissions don’t change if we cut giants countries into many smaller ones. If China was 25 different countries you wouldn’t be pointing the finger to them. Why shouldn’t the highest emitters not be the ones to reduce most?

Because we're not having a moral argument but rather a practical one. The fact is that China emits much more CO2 than other countries, even after you account for exports (ie, CO2 emissions "offshored" from Europe and North America). Moreover: while emissions in the west are falling, the are rising in China and India and the developing world, as they must, because they track rising standards of living. I don't underst…

There's no reason to argue about this. Everyone agrees that

1) China needs to cut more emissions in total.

2) The US/West needs to cut more emissions per capita.

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