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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

reuters.com

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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#451

Post by kuschku »

super256 wrote: post #90
solenoid0937 wrote: post #7

These - especially Polymarket - should be illegal globally, as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world in horribly destructive ways to win a bet. I would not be surprised if people are murdered at some point to reap the payout of some related bet.

Maybe we should ban the stock market too. In 2017 someone tried to bomb the bus of the BVB soccer club, after he bought puts options on the BVB stock. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borussia_Dortmund_team_bus_bom...

You're not that wrong - look at e.g. Tesla. Back in the day, the point of the stock market was not to make money off stock price changes, but to make money of the dividends, which was much more stable (but has a different set of issues associated with it)

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#452

Post by Paracompact »

daemin wrote: post #409
Paracompact wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Counterargument: Any "specific" wording of gambling would have condemned this activity. On average, vagueness in law generates more loopholes for corporate criminals to hide behind than it generates discretion for judges and juries to rule against them.

What is your stance on loot boxes in video games then? Is that akin to a poker/slot machine or is it more like a kinder surprise?

I wouldn't personally lose sleep on whichever way loot boxes were legislated. If their contents are easily converted into real-world cash, I would say the company bears some responsibility for the actions of any black markets, perhaps proportional to the volume traded. CS:GO has to crack down on its massive skins market, Kinder doesn't have to sweat its little toys.

Generally, I think the common-law notion of "consideration + chance + prize" augmented with the requirement of an "insurable interest" (in order to keep the insurance industry legal) discerns the truth well enough. Insisting that any "prize" not be monetary or monetarily-convertible keeps it from becoming a cyclical addiction, and evaluating infractions relative to volume keeps extremists from banning gumball machines and Kinder eggs.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#453

Post by utopiah »

bilekas wrote: post #442

> Spain - like other European jurisdictions - considers prediction markets a form of gambling when bets are placed on uncertain outcomes. What is the defense in the US for example that these are not gambling, "bets are placed on uncertain outcomes", it's that close to, if not the definition of gambling ?

Money?

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#455

Post by mschild »

DaedalusII wrote: post #368
mschild wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To perhaps be a bit more pendantic. You're not allowed to take out life insurance on someone you don't know or have a relationship (business or otherwise) with. Life insurance on a business partner works. Life insurance on your spouse as well. Life insurance on the leader of a random country? Unlikely

you cant take out life insurance on your spouse without them signing the paperwork in most cases you dont take out cover on your business partner, the company itself does

True but you're still taking it out on another person.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#456

Post by pu_pe »

cthor wrote: post #447
ropable wrote: post #443

Kalshi, Polymarket and every other prediction market should have been drowned at birth by regulators. They offer zero positive utility to the world. I hope that we follow Spain's example here in Australia; we have a hard enough time with legal gambling as it is.

The utility is a fairly robust signal about the probability of certain events occurring. It's pretty helpful for grounding your beliefs about the world (in certain domains). For example, I had a lot of people ask me about the Hantavirus and if it was worth worrying about. I didn't have to do any research other than look at the various prediction markets and see them all at 5-10% to determine it was probably a nothing…

Even for that function, I think their benefits are overrated. Someone could easily manipulate that number if it fits their purposes (ie a health tech startup trying to peddle some cure). The numbers given to you are an illusion of understanding that does not replace actual research.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#457

Post by embedding-shape »

HDBaseT wrote: post #401
embedding-shape wrote: post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> blocks the internet completely decimating all necessary services Not really how it works in practice here, some Cloudflare IPs are unavailable for a few hours, everything mostly keeps working as it always is.

It's only Cloudflare IPs, its only the most popular reverse proxy and CDN provider on the internet. Only a mere 20%+ of internet traffic traverses via Cloudflare.

some Cloudflare IPs, not every IP, nor does 20% of what you typically do on the internet go away during these few hours.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#458

Post by embedding-shape »

pennaMan wrote: post #424
embedding-shape wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For some reason, American companies have a really hard time following existing laws and regulations here. AirBnb and Uber both had the same approach of basically saying "Oops we didn't know" until the law (and others) cracked down on them, I'm sure someone could find older examples too, and surely tons of examples outside of Spain too.

The reason is self evident: central planning regulatory hell is incompatible with inovation.

> central planning regulatory hell

Yup, totally nuanced comment coming from a completely sane person since "central planning regulatory hell" and "laissez faire economy without laws" are the two only options we have here, good job carrying the conversation forward with curious and interesting comments.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#459

Post by embedding-shape »

pennaMan wrote: post #425
embedding-shape wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also the reason laws aren't overly specific, so these judges can make those judgement calls in the cases. Following the spirit of the law rather than the letter of the law is something many judges care about as well.

You have an US-centric (an really naive) view of the judicial systems of the world. In many countries the judges have to follow the exact letter of the law. In others, this "spirit of the law" excuse makes way for enabling systemic corruption.

> You have an US-centric (an really naive) view of the judicial systems of the world.

Right, so because "judges have to follow the exact letter of the law" in the countries you have in mind, somehow my view is US-centric, although I'm from Sweden and I live in Spain, never visited US nor been in any US court ever? Both countries I'm familiar with, have purposive interpretation rules.

You can share that in other places it might be different, compared to how it works in the places I'm familiar with, without chucking insults around, especially insults you uninspiringly basically said in every recent comment of yours, at least make it unique.

To actually make this a somewhat interesting conversation instead of just pooping words, as I just tried that and didn't find it as fun as you did; what specific countries are you talking about, how does it work there, and how little corruption do those countries have compared to say Sweden?

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#460

Post by embedding-shape »

debugnik wrote: post #429
TZubiri wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correct, to be even more specific. Cloudlfare uses a reputation pooling technique to provide anonimities to their clients (providers, through reverse proxies, in this case). Since cloudflare does not comply with requests to selectively stop distributing the banned content in Spain, and since ISPs cannot perform that filter due to header encryption like encrypted HELO, then the Spanish courts opt to perform the least…

"Least destructive"? I can't access many sites and services during matches, but my colleagues tell me their pirate sources have barely been affected. This "least destructive" path is not working but is definitely destroying.

Ok, besides avoiding the blocks altogether, you seem to know of a less destructive approach, please do share it, I'll share whatever you come up with to my representative as I've managed to have a dialogue about this with them before.

But it has to be something, and cannot be "Don't do the blocks" obviously since it's already ruled it should be blocked, but since you've managed to come up with a block so it doesn't have to affect even those Cloudflare IPs, could you please share the method you've come up with?

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