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Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

seangoedecke.com

451–460 of 809 posts

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#451
Here's a better comparison to pro athletes. Their work output is winning games. How do they get good at (and stay good at) that? Is it by playing real games for points?

That's a part of it, but only a small part. They don't get good at the thing mainly by doing the thing. They get good at it by training to do the thing.

An NFL football player does a ton of things other than playing in games. They have practice scrimmages. They do drills like throwing, catching, running patterns, tackling, reading quarterbacks, stripping balls, picking up fumbles, etc. They work with coaches on their technique. They watch film. They spend many hours in the gym and on the track building their strength, speed, cardio, and stamina.

Yes, it's true that your software skills will atrophy if you don't use them. But that doesn't mean your skills have to get worse and worse causing you to eventually quit the job. It means you need to set aside time to maintain your skills. It may no longer happen automatically as a side effect of your work, but it can happen intentionally instead.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These days nobody bangs their heads over typos. LLMs evaporated 90% of the "moments of despair" when you have an error and googling it isn't helping, or googling it made you realize you have to read 30min of documentation. Coding is a joy now. LLMs shaved off all the rough edges.

You can't possibly believe this, or you and me (and many others) are doing something different. LLMs have created an entire new - huge - set of bang-your-head moments, as they go off half-cocked in a million simultaneous directions, chasing their tail, or just making shit up. And since the vast majority of work is on existing - often ancient - codebases, let's find out if you feel the same way in 18 months.

LLMs are great for anyone who isn't responsible for the consequences of what they code.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#453
post #367
post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But when a senior can do the job of 6 coworkers, what do you suppose will happen to the coworkers? In farming, those who were replaced by tractors did not keep their jobs. What is different now?

Nothing, it’s that same story again. Industrialization turned peasants to blue collar workers by mechanizing agriculture. Then blue collar workers were turned to white collar workers by mechanizing all manual labor. Now AI is coming for white collar workers by mechanizing intellectual labor. The big question is what will white collar workers turn into.

1. People *across generations* had to skill up. 2. software being very opaque (very differently from agriculture/mechanized labour) imo is linked to having a plethora of support roles that cannot write software but "handle the human part" and help make it readable, while spreading accountability. Hopefully with a "more readable/more standardized" software development, those [product|project|people] management roles can stop being a drag/bottleneck. (code was never the bottleneck we repeat ourselves since age immemorial)

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#454

It's been absolutely astonishing to see software developers pick software development as the first profession to attempt to automate away. Couldn't you geniuses have picked any other profession to start with? And it's not just the developers at Anthropic & OpenAI, even at my own company, the rockstar developers were the first to try and automate away all of the software development jobs at our company.

I don't think it's that supprising that software developers would try and make tools to make software development easier.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#455
I don’t understand why so many people are convinced that “this time is different.” New tools raise the ceiling of what’s possible. New jobs emerge at the limit of what’s possible with new tools. The jobs doing what we do today will disappear. New jobs with greater complexity and specialization will emerge. I have watched this happen in the software industry in my lifetime. I expect that it will continue to happen.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With farming, you couldn't just start your own farm, because it requires farmland, and there's only so much of that. But those 6 software engineers can start their own companies, fire up their own team of agents. There's no limit to how many companies can exist in the world.

"Just start your own company!" - Hacker News

It makes sense go bankrupt, start another LLC.

No I watch/listen to a lot of entrepreneurial stuff since 2016 and I still haven't launched my own product. There's a YT channel "Starter Story" it's like "this person make $100K/mo, here is the template".

It really is simple though, put a paypal button on a squarespace page and ask someone to pay it.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#458
From all I can see, things for US citizen developers are all but over.

Not AI, offshoring combined with downsizing of US based engineering orgs.

Corp America has figured it out finally after 2 decades of entitled developers making 2 day tasks into 2 week tasks in the name of "best practices", "architecture" and "Doing It Right!" etc, all while commanding high salaries.

It turns out that Good Enough is in fact good enough and the people who write the checks are onto it. Even if its not quite good enough, cheap offshore resources can just be sent back to make it work. US based staff of 5 people who can be held responsible for guiding a much larger offshore group seems to be the common pattern.

All of this was imparted to me by a CIO on a recent interview with a financially strong mid sized company in the eastern US. The developers I interviewed with where EXCEPTIONALLY COMFORTABLE and displayed zero signs of any kind of stress from maintaining their literally 20 years out of date infra. It was insinuated that the team I interviewed with "probably wont look the same in 6 months" too.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#459

It's been absolutely astonishing to see software developers pick software development as the first profession to attempt to automate away. Couldn't you geniuses have picked any other profession to start with? And it's not just the developers at Anthropic & OpenAI, even at my own company, the rockstar developers were the first to try and automate away all of the software development jobs at our company.

I've been releasing open source software for ~25 years at this point. The goal of that was always to save other developers time, as part of a collaboration where other open source developers save me time with their own work.

That's worked out pretty great so far!

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#460

  "We may be in the first generation of software engineers in the same position. If so, it’s probably a good idea to plan accordingly."
He compares software engineers to pro athletes. What does it mean to plan accordingly? Start working with the mob to fix poker games? I don't know what "plan accordingly" means at all but it is a thought provoking statement.
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