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Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

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Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#361

Post by Enginerrrd »

sefrost wrote: post #147
bborud wrote: post #67

Multiple times per week I have the same conversation. It goes something like this: - AI will make developers irrelevant - Why? - Because LLMs can write code - Do you know what I do for a living? - Yes, write code? - Yes, about 2-5% of the time. Less now. - But you said you are a developer? - I did - So what do you do 95-98% of the time? - I understand things and then apply my ability to formulate solutions - But I ca…

Only 5% of your time is spent writing code? That sounds like a low estimate for most software engineers I work with. May I ask if you could estimate how you spend the other 95% of the time?

It sounds plausible to me since this is pretty en par with most other engineering disciplines. I’m a civil engineer. My responsibility is ultimately mostly to produce a constructable plan set. I spend far less than 5% of my time drafting or modeling.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#362

Post by kakacik »

therealdrag0 wrote: post #261
bborud wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you, perchance, assuming that since you spend most of your time struggling with actual code, this is so for everyone else? Or are you saying that I'm lying. That I am secretly hammering away at my keyboard while pretending not to? No, writing code hasn't been how I spend most of my time for many decades now.

Are you a staff level engineer that has dozens of other engineers banging away at code projects you help define?

I am not, yet actual coding is miniscule part of workflow. The rest is cca un-automable by any llm - politics, meetings, discussions, brainstorming, organizing testing teams, stakeholders and so on.

This is how big corporations look like, not some SV startups.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#363

Post by mystraline »

It'll move, sure.

Im looking at proper engineering in building local LLM networks, with proper firewalls, capability access, and guards around the LLM systems to allow and enable advanced use while not just "lol delete everything" happening.

When theres a land grab, move to selling tools and how to knowledge work in maintaining the tools and proper operation and maintenance.

I also look at upsells like local LLMs as reason to do this in house, so that companies arent liable for rug pulls and violation (consumption) of trade secrets, or breaching confidential discussions.

And LLMs arent good at recommending tech stacks for running them. Stuff is moving faster than most data training sets have.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#364

Post by nitwit005 »

KronisLV wrote: post #101
bborud wrote: post #67

Multiple times per week I have the same conversation. It goes something like this: - AI will make developers irrelevant - Why? - Because LLMs can write code - Do you know what I do for a living? - Yes, write code? - Yes, about 2-5% of the time. Less now. - But you said you are a developer? - I did - So what do you do 95-98% of the time? - I understand things and then apply my ability to formulate solutions - But I ca…

> Yes, about 2-5% of the time. There are also those for whom that percentage is higher, let’s say 6-50%. > I understand things and then apply my ability to formulate solutions The AI is coming for that too. You might just be lucky to be in circumstances that value your contributions or an industry or domain that isn’t well represented in the training data, or problem spaces too complex for AI. Not everyone is, not ev…

> The AI is coming for that too.

Yes, but if/when that happens, it won't just affect software engineers. An AI that can do that can replace any white collar worker.

> People knocking out Jira tickets and writing CRUD webapps will end up with their livelihood often taken away.

I'm not sure anyone is actually working on those. People talk about spending all day writing CRUD apps here, but if you suggest there are already low code tools to build those, they will promptly tell you it's too complex for that to work.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#365

Post by notpachet »

ASalazarMX wrote: post #209
ge96 wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder though, can AI make the next JS framework. I mean that in sincerity, there was the leap from jQuery to React for ex. If an AI only knows jQuery and no one makes React, will React come out of AI.

News: "AGI refuses to make another JS framework, rages on the follies of misguided developers and their wateful JS crutches" Developer community: Wow, we truly have become obsolete now!

In a shocking twist, it turns out that Mootools is the agents' preferred framework

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#366

Post by nitwit005 »

BurningFrog wrote: post #195
LPisGood wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The AI is coming for that too. That may be true I’m not gonna say one way or the other, but if AI comes for that then almost all knowledge work is effectively dead, so all that’s left would be sales or physical labor.

The history of the last 250 years is inventing new professions as old ones are automated away. I expect that to continue.

Given some sort of machine with human capabilities, there would be no reason to assign that profession to a human, excepting perhaps cost.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#367

Post by jhrmnn »

bel8 wrote: post #255
hibikir wrote: post #237

In my experience, it's been the complete opposite. The very experienced engineers that are actually willing to use top of the line tooling are much better than they were before, including those that are over 40, and over 50. Part of the practical degradation of traditional programmers over time has always been concentration and deep calculation, just like in chess. The old chess player knows chess much better than a…

But when a senior can do the job of 6 coworkers, what do you suppose will happen to the coworkers? In farming, those who were replaced by tractors did not keep their jobs. What is different now?

Nothing, it’s that same story again. Industrialization turned peasants to blue collar workers by mechanizing agriculture. Then blue collar workers were turned to white collar workers by mechanizing all manual labor. Now AI is coming for white collar workers by mechanizing intellectual labor. The big question is what will white collar workers turn into.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#368

Post by kakacik »

malfist wrote: post #286
cromka wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've literally just started, what "over and over" do you refer to?

I've been told the past four years that AI is coming for my job. And thats just not true. Its no closer to that than it was 4 years ago.

It feels its just around the corner. But when you turn 20th corner and its still behind the next one, maybe things are a bit different than they seem / clueless emotions make us believe.

Long term its bleak, but short/medium term - not so much, if I get fired it won't be llm replacing me but rather company politics, budget changes etc. Which was the only real (very real) risk for past 15 years too, consistently. But it helps to not work for US company.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#369

Post by Danox »

malfist wrote: post #286
cromka wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've literally just started, what "over and over" do you refer to?

I've been told the past four years that AI is coming for my job. And thats just not true. Its no closer to that than it was 4 years ago.

It is the lament of every generation of humans to think that they are the pinnacle of everything that has come before, we are just at the start of the so-called AI era, many very smart people coming up still haven’t really got their hands on all of the material available from a hardware and software standpoint. We are still at the early stages.

I am very optimistic. I just wish I was younger to take advantage like Junior high, high school age with my current resources damn… The oldest lament in the books.

Re: Software engineering may no longer be a lifetime career

#370

Post by bluegatty »

bborud wrote: post #67

Multiple times per week I have the same conversation. It goes something like this: - AI will make developers irrelevant - Why? - Because LLMs can write code - Do you know what I do for a living? - Yes, write code? - Yes, about 2-5% of the time. Less now. - But you said you are a developer? - I did - So what do you do 95-98% of the time? - I understand things and then apply my ability to formulate solutions - But I ca…

This is maybe a bit myopic.

Dude - look what happened in the last 2 years on software.

Now project out another 10.

I totally agree with you 'as of now, in the current paradigm'.

But that could very well change.

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