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Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

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Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#451
post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something to think about (hah!) is there are people without an internal monologue i.e. no voice inside their head they use when working out a problem. So they're thinking and learning and doing what humans do just fine with no little voice no language inside their head.

It's so weird that people literally seem to have a voice in their head they cannot control. For me personally my "train of thought" is a series of concepts, sometimes going as far as images. I can talk to myself in my head with language if I make a conscious effort to do so, just as I can breathe manually if I want. But if I don't, it's not really there like some people seem to have. Probably there are at least two g…

I think there are significantly more than 2, when you start to count variations through the spectrum of neurodiversity.

Spatial thinkers, for example, or the hyperlexic.

Meaning for hyperlexics is more akin to finding meaning in the edges of the graph, rather than the vertices. The form of language contributing a completely separate graph of knowledge, alongside its content, creating a rich, multimodal form of understanding.

Spatial thinkers have difficulty with procedural thinking, which is how most people are taught. Rather than the series of steps to solve the problem, they see the shape of the transform. LLMs as an assistive device can be very useful for spatial thinkers in providing the translation layer between the modes of thought.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#452
post #58

I would bet all of my assets of my life that AGI will not be seen in the lifetime of anyone reading this message right now. That includes anyone reading this message long after the lives of those reading it on its post date have ended. Which of course raises the interesting question of how I can make good on this bet.

How certain are you of this really? I'd take this bet with you. You're saying that we won't achieve AGI in ~80 years, or roughly 2100, equivalent to the time since the end WW2. To quote Shane Legg from 2009: "It looks like we’re heading towards 10^20 FLOPS before 2030, even if things slow down a bit from 2020 onwards. That’s just plain nuts. Let me try to explain just how nuts: 10^20 is about the number of neurons in…

How does a neuron compare to a flop?

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a lot more complicated than that. You have instincts, right? Innate fears? This is definitely something passed down through genetics. The Hawk/Goose Effect isn't just limited to baby chickens. Certainly some mental encoding passes down through genetics as how much the brain controls, down to your breathing and heartbeat. But instinct is basic. It's something humans are even able to override. It's a first order a…

One of the biggest mysteries of humans Vs LLMs is that LLMs need an absurd amount of data during pre training, then a little bit of data during fine tuning to make them behave more human. Meanwhile humans don't need any data at all, but have the blind spot that they can only know and learn about what they have observed. This raises two questions. What is the loss function of the supervised learning algorithm equivale…

  > Meanwhile humans don't need any data at all
I don't agree with this and I don't think any biologist or neuroscientist would either.

1) Certainly the data I discussed exists. No creature comes out a blank slate. I'll be bold enough to say that this is true even for viruses, even if we don't consider them alive. Automata doesn't mean void of data and I'm not sure why you'd ascribe this to life or humans.

2) humans are processing data from birth (technically before too but that's not necessary for this conversation and I think we all know that's a great way to have an argument and not address our current conversation). This is clearly some active/online/continual/ reinforcement/wherever-word-you-want-to-use learning.

It's weird to suggest an either or situation. All evidence points to "both". Looking at different animals even see both but also with different distributions.

I think it's easy to over simplify the problem and the average conversation tends to do this. It's clearly a complex with many variables at play. We can't approximate with any reasonable accuracy by ignoring or holding them constant. They're coupled.

  > The reward function can't be created by the brain, because it would be circular.
Why not? I'm absolutely certain I can create my own objectives and own metrics. I'm certain my definition of success is different from yours.

  > It would be like giving yourself a high, without even needing drugs
Which is entirely possible. Maybe it takes extreme training to do extreme versions but it's also not like chemicals like dopamine are constant. You definitely get a rush by completing goals. People become addicted to things like videogames, high risk activities like sky diving, or even arguing on the internet.

Just because there are externally driven or influenced goals doesn't mean internal ones can't exist. Our emotions can be driven both externally and internally.

  > Notice something?
You're using too simple of a model. If you use this model then the solution is as easy as giving a robot self preservation (even if we need to wait a few million years). But how would self preservation evolve beyond its initial construction without the ability to metaprocess and refine that goal? So I think this should highlight a major limitation in your belief. As I see it, the only other way is a changing environment that somehow allows continued survival by the constructions and precisely evolves such that the original instructions continue to work. Even with vague instructions that's an unstable equilibrium. I think you'll find there's a million edge cases even if it seems obvious at first. Or read some Asimov ;)

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What developer is excited about "vibe coding"? The only people excited about "vibe coding" are people who can't code.

That's a crazy generalization. I've coded professionally for 40 years. I'm hugely excited about vibe coding. I use it every single day to create little tools and web apps to help me do my job.

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Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#456
post #68

>What takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines. Every single nine is a constant amount of work. Every single nine is the same amount of work. When you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine. Then you need the second nine, a third nine, a fourth nine, a fifth nine. While I was at Tesla for five years or so, we went through maybe three…

if it works 90% of the time that means it fails 10% of the time, to get to 1% failure rate is a 10x improvement and from 1% failure rate to a 0.1% failure rate is also a 10x improvement

First time being hearing it be called "march of nines", did Tesla make the term, I thought it was an Amazon thing

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#457
We will never achieve AGI, because we keep moving the goalposts.

SOTA models are already capable of outperforming any human on earth in a dizzying array of ways, especially when you consider scale.

Humans also produce nonsensical, useless output. Lots of it.

Yes, LLMs have many limitations that humans easily transcend.

But few if any humans on earth can demonstrate the breadth and depth of competence that a SOTA model possesses.

Relatively few (probably less than half) are casually capable of the level of reasoning that LLMs exhibit.

And, more importantly, as anyone in the field when neural networks were new is aware, AGI never meant human level intelligence until the LLM age. It just meant that a system could generalize one domain from knowledge gained in other domains without supervision or programming.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So my toaster understands toast and I don’t understand toast? Then why am I operating the toaster and not the other way around?

A toaster cannot perform the task of making toast any more than an Allen key can perform the task of assembling flat pack furniture.

Let me understand, is your claim that a toaster can't toast bread because it cannot initiate the toasting through its own volition?

Ignoring the silly wording, that is a very different thing than what robotresearcher said. And actually, in a weird way I agree. Though I disagree that a toaster can't toast bread.

Let's take a step back. At what point is it me making the toast and not the toaster? Is it because I have to press the level? We can automate that. Is it because I have to put by bread in? We can automate that. Is it because I have to have the desire to have toast and initiate the chain of events? How do you measure that?

I'm certain that's different from measuring task success. And that's why I disagree with robotresearcher. The logic isn't self consistent.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my view 'understand' is a folk psychology term that does not have a technical meaning. Like 'intelligent', 'beautiful', and 'interesting'. It usefully labels a basket of behaviors we see in others, and that is all it does. In this view, if a machine performs a task as well as a human, it understands it exactly as much as a human. There's no problem of how to do understanding, only how to do tasks. The 'problem' me…

> that does not have a technical meaning I don't think the definition is very refined, but I think we should be careful to differentiate that from useless or meaningless. I would say most definitions are accurate, but not precise. It's a hard problem, but we are making progress on it. We will probably get there, but it's going to end up being very nuanced and already it is important to recognize that the word means d…

> It's a hard problem

So people say.

I’m not sidestepping the Hard Problem. I am denying it head on. It’s not a trick or a dodge! It’s a considered stance.

I'm denying that an idea that has historically resisted crisp definition, and that the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy introduces as 'protean', needs to be taken seriously as an essential missing part of AI systems, until someone can explain why.

In my view, the only value the Hard Problem has is to capture a feeling people have about intelligent systems. I contend that this feeling is an artifact of being a social ape, and it entails nothing about AI.

Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents

#460
Since we’re pulling numbers out of our ass, I think AGI is 500 years away. But really, I don’t know how we’re going to define it, but if AGI means computers can outperform me at all cognitive tasks, I’d bet money that’s not going to arrive this century.

People are starting to get catch on, but most non-tech people don’t use LLMs for anything more than simple questions that can be easily answered by summarizing regurgitated snippets of training data. To them, it looks intelligent. And yeah, the humans who wrote the training samples it regurgitated probably were intelligent.

It’s just a fact, one that becomes glaringly obvious when you use LLMs daily to do real work, that this is just not the tech that will lead to AGI.

They found a really clever pattern matching technique that, when combined with absurd amounts of data and compute, can reproduce plausible summaries of training data which can be stitched together in useful ways. It’s a useful tool. But the whole AGI conversation is so absurdly far away from this that it’s just clear that these guys pushing a very dishonest grift.

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