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The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

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Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#451

Post by chaostheory »

wmeredith wrote: post #151
next_xibalba wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many of his predictions have failed? How many are timebound and falsifiable? I am not specifically familiar with Zehain, but I am very well acquainted with figures who generate many predictions, have a small number become true, and then get treated as oracles for years before the truth is exposed: predicting the future in massive, chaotic systems is nearly impossible.

Here's a skeptical look at some of his claims: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/11/peter-zeihan-makes-bad...

> Zeihan has an implicit prediction that neither China or any other power would step into any power void left by the withdrawal of the USA

I believe this has already been proven wrong with the One Belt Road. It’s ridiculous to think that no one will step in once there’s a power vacuum.

> Japan, Turkey and Argentina will Rise as Future Great Powers

I have a really hard time believing this, especially with Japan. It’s under threat from climate change and its xenophobic, anti immigration stance paired with its aging population.

Still, not all of his ideas are bad.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#452

Post by trashtester »

hackerfromthefu wrote: post #445
trashtester wrote: post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Lenders only lend because there’s faith that $1 loaned today becomes more than $1 paid back tomorrow. This is false, especially for low risk lending. An at least equally important reason for lending, is to delay consumption. Lending teleoports wealth forward in time. Supply and demand of credit will depend if the wealth gets bigger or smaller as a consequence. Keep in mind that even a bank depost it "lending", and…

Doesn't really check out .. You are saying that people will lend without faith that they will get more back than lent? Put yourself in the shoes of someone who has capital - lending is all bad. why go to effort, to risk of losing your money, and opportunity cost of using the money yourself? There's gotta be some incentive for the individual lender if it's actually going to happen at scale in society.

Lending below the real (inflation adjusted) interest rate is very common, and this is the main case. If there is an average of 2% inflation, a deposit of 0% nominal interest is -2% of real interest rate.

But even at 0% nominal interest rate (in periods of low inflation), you see organizatons lend at below 0%, if the risk is zero or close to zero (such as when a bank is lending to the central bank).

In fact, throughout history, savings were usually stored in some commodity. The most common ones were grain and gold. Storing grain and gold is not easy, you have to ward off rats, thieves, rot etc. So throughout history, people have been paying granaries, goldsmiths, banks and others a fee for storing their commodities.

If a granary were almost full, the owner migth decide to sell some of the grain, and gain profit, instead of storing all the grain under his supervision. This would be relatively safe if the reserve was big enough, and if he would have ways to cover a "granary run".

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#453

Post by bergenty »

tacocataco wrote: post #435
bergenty wrote: post #394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The worst mistake we made is normalizing working for women.

I'm sure there are lots of men who would want to be a stay at home dad. I doubt it's a realistic option for the vast majority of men though.

That might have been possible if we didn’t turn the entire society into a both parents have to work situation.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#454

Post by chaostheory »

yrgulation wrote: post #41
Barrera wrote: post #26

Haven't read the book, but for those who don't know who Zeihan is, his work follows two threads of post-WWII history: 1. Deglobalization; and 2. Depopulation The article focuses mostly on deglobalization, but depopulation is in the horse pulling the cart. Many are familiar with the deglobalization idea from the last US presidential administration. The current administration kept those tariffs, and abided by the previ…

> Their populations will shrink with mathematical certainty. Yeah you know why? Because both parents sitting in offices 8 hours a day have no means of looking after their kids. And a mother giving birth needs to return to work in a few months time, else she there's no pay. Oh and neither parent can give up work to raise these future adults because living expenses are too high. I don't know why everyone is so surprise…

Even if we fixed those problems, birth rates would still be falling. Why? Even accounting for social changes like the sexual revolution, researchers have found that birth rates would still fall due to decreasing male fertility which is common in any industrialized country even for developing ones now, which is alarming. (Everyone has good theories, but no one knows definitively why it is happening.) The only continent that still has healthy fertility is Africa, and that’s only for central Africa. Even coastal Africa is starting to be affected by this Children of Men phenomena.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#455

Post by antisthenes »

arcturus17 wrote: post #374
antisthenes wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bingo. You hit the nail on the head. Most people who say Malthus is wrong are refuting a strawman that has nothing to do with the original strong argument.

Sorry but no - plenty of Malthusian arguments have been disproven.

Wrong. Unless you somehow travelled into the future and saw humanity's timeline until the end of time, his main thesis has not been disproven.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#456

Post by pas »

ren_engineer wrote: post #289
pas wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

wow, that's some high-density bullshit. > But which nation is going to be growing faster in economic terms? well, likely both. because of trade and specialization. when the US offshored shoemaking people did not just went to the beach and called it a day. both capital and labor got reallocated for better returns. (yes, not everyone moved to the service industry, unfortunately not everybody was able or willing to chan…

>wow, that's some high-density bullshit. your response to the argument that economists are wrong is to post more stuff from economists that don't look at 2nd order effects? China doesn't practice anything resembling free trade and as a result they are dominating naïve Western economies the biggest problem is people who worship "free trade" as a religion while smarter nations use it as a tool to bash them in the head

None of those are economists though. (I don't know whether they have econ degrees of some sorts but neither of them are practicing economists, both are pundits.)

I'm completely in favor of levying customs on China for anticompetitive practices. (Eg. favoring state-owned enterprises against other market participants.)

The point that the free trade zealots make - correctly IMHO - is that despite all the problems with the freeness of trade the trade part in itself got us so so so much prosperity.

> they are dominating naïve Western economies

Okay, that's a very vague claim. Dominating how? Their GDP growth is bigger? (Which is completely expected, it's much easier to catch up.) They stole a lot of tech? (Western companies knew all the risks when they entered into these partnerships, plus if they feel their IP is misused they can - and do - sue both inside and outside China, I guess with largely predictable outcomes.)

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#457

Post by qikInNdOutReply »

hprotagonist wrote: post #204
qikInNdOutReply wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you disappoint him, could you deliver at least this one pizza under 30 minutes to this enclave down the road?

no, but i have a young friend who could probably help you out.

Just nother goon with a harpoon.. yours truly

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#458

Post by trashtester »

hackerfromthefu wrote: post #445
trashtester wrote: post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Lenders only lend because there’s faith that $1 loaned today becomes more than $1 paid back tomorrow. This is false, especially for low risk lending. An at least equally important reason for lending, is to delay consumption. Lending teleoports wealth forward in time. Supply and demand of credit will depend if the wealth gets bigger or smaller as a consequence. Keep in mind that even a bank depost it "lending", and…

Doesn't really check out .. You are saying that people will lend without faith that they will get more back than lent? Put yourself in the shoes of someone who has capital - lending is all bad. why go to effort, to risk of losing your money, and opportunity cost of using the money yourself? There's gotta be some incentive for the individual lender if it's actually going to happen at scale in society.

Btw, here is the recent interbank rate history (Fibor):

https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/interbank-rate

This is NOT risk-free lending (though very low risk at such short maturity). Banks can and do go bust.

As you can see, the rate has been below -0.5% recently, and is still negative.

And there is a LOT of lending going on between banks.

Re: The end of the world is just beginning for shipping

#460

Post by mitchdoogle »

busterarm wrote: post #272
colechristensen wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People like to point at Japan and its lack of growth pointing out to various degrees how awful that is, but if you’re actually Japanese, you’re pretty much fine for these decades of zeroish growth. Not to say Japan is an idyllic place free from problems, but the economics of a zero growth society has at least that example of a distinct lack of doom. If the rest of us experience it like that, it’s not really anything…

There's a distinct cost to that lack of doom. In fact, "lack of doom" depends entirely on where you live in Japan. Most of the country is somewhere on the spectrum of "moving to Tokyo" for economic opportunity. Smaller cities just seem to be a waypoint on that journey. Japanese work long hours and don't make very much money. The average salary is just under 54k USD. People continue to work well into old age and in ma…

Interesting take. The majority of Japanese live outside of the Tokyo metropolitan area. Maybe someday that will be untrue, but I don't think it will happen for a long while. The other big cities in Japan are still strong and several of the smaller cities. Some small towns and villages have died or going that way, but plenty are doing OK.

But even in those places that are dying, people take great care to preserve and prolong Japanese culture and history. It is perhaps the country most interested in its own history and culture in all the world.

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