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Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

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Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#451

Post by whimsicalism »

kelnos wrote: post #427
woeirua wrote: post #410

I won't feel one ounce of pity for the "investors" who lose their shirts when this bubble finally pops. We should regulate investors almost entirely out of housing. Yes, there is still a need for people with lots of capital to go in and repair dilapidated homes. But we don't need people hoarding homes and renting them out as AirBnbs.

It's somewhat fashionable for well-off people/families to have a vacation home somewhere vacation-y. Before Airbnb, most of those homes just sat vacant for most of the year[0]. Clearly, that's not a great use of that land. Often these sorts of properties would be in pretty desirable locations, and doing it this way would deprive most people the use of that space. Certainly there are still some people who are wealthy…

> Certainly there are still some people who are wealthy enough to keep their vacation homes vacant most of the time (and prefer it that way, since doing short-term rentals tends to involve quite a bit of wear-and-tear on a house and its furnishings). But many list on Airbnb now. I consider this a net positive for society.

You are missing a critical issue. Airbnb makes it way more affordable to have this second home, so now many more only-sorta-wealthy people can afford vacation homes while pricing people out of the local housing market.

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#452

Post by stevenhuang »

lmt55 wrote: post #91
hans1729 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, it's not really a burst, we're just hearing the hissing noise of the obvious leak. The true demand from people with the intend to actually live in the estates has been constantly decreasing since around 2000; the real salarys dropped since then, so did the buying power. The only reasons people found buyers at x3-x10 (!) prices were a) that there is a class of people wealthy enough to still afford the purchase…

I think you have missed a source of demand, and I think it's important. As housing became more and more expensive to young professionals, some people in this group have worked harder and harder to buy property, even to the point where it no longer seems rational. For example, parents taking a lot of wealth out of their retirement savings or their own homes to assist children in buying. Professionals are working more…

This captures my assessment on the matter.

With the housing shortage and unmet demand, we are at the margins whereby the ones buying are well-off.

The question to ask is if the rate of new housing and the rate of capable buyers will diverge.

As long as supply is low enough that the supply of capable buyers keep outbidding each other, housing prices will keep rising or at least plateau.

Higher rates will have an affect on diminishing the rate of capable buyers entering the market, but if supply is still low and the demand for home ownership remains high, I don't foresee anything drastic happening to the housing market.

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#453

Post by chowells »

tick_tock_tick wrote: post #439
woeirua wrote: post #410

I won't feel one ounce of pity for the "investors" who lose their shirts when this bubble finally pops. We should regulate investors almost entirely out of housing. Yes, there is still a need for people with lots of capital to go in and repair dilapidated homes. But we don't need people hoarding homes and renting them out as AirBnbs.

We regulated investors into the housing market. We've created a nearly guaranteed ROI by making it impossible to build.

I think you've got cause and effect backwards. We told people that housing is an investment, and now people fight tooth and nail to protect the value of their "investment". Of course housing availability has fallen precipitously.

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#454

Post by x86_64Ubuntu »

1270018080 wrote: post #423
woeirua wrote: post #410

I won't feel one ounce of pity for the "investors" who lose their shirts when this bubble finally pops. We should regulate investors almost entirely out of housing. Yes, there is still a need for people with lots of capital to go in and repair dilapidated homes. But we don't need people hoarding homes and renting them out as AirBnbs.

Is it a bubble? Where is the irrational exuberance? Lots of people need homes, there aren't enough, prices go up. And investors hoarding equity by forcing people to rent have a captive audience. Both of those aren't really tulip/crypto hysteria. It's just a shitty situation. I would love to see investors get burned too, but I don't think there's anything to pop. We're just a decade behind Canada.

I see your point, but I look at the houses going up all around me and their prices, and I wonder where folks are getting this money from. I know what I do for a living and how well it pays, but people who make less than half of my salary are buying homes that are twice as expensive. Also, talking to realtors they mention that homes are sometimes sold before they hit sites like Zillow and such. Sight-unseen, waived inspections, $20K over asking. This can't be sustainable.

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#455

Post by techsupporter »

stevenhuang wrote: post #441
techsupporter wrote: post #426

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because it is very odd framing, to say the least, to refer to someone in a professional context as a "girl."

I didn't read it that way. Is HN a professional context? In this casual retelling I read it as a neutral noun describing gender. Substitute the equivalent here with 'guy' and we wouldn't be having this discussion. Thinking harder, I guess 'gal' would have been more appropriate. But in any case I feel this reveals more about the reader and their proclivity to engage in 'culture-war topics' than anything substantial.

> But in any case I feel this reveals more about the reader and their proclivity to engage in 'culture-war topics' than anything substantial.

You are, of course, free to assign any motivation to me that you like.

However I am on the older side and the only times I ever heard "girl" used were as a pronoun for a younger person or as a diminutive for a person seen as lesser than the speaker.

For example, my older family members would refer to "the typing pool girls" or "the makeup counter girl" or, by comparison, "the woman at the county clerk's office."

So it is a bit astounding to me, especially now, to hear someone casually refer to someone who is providing a professional service to them as a "girl."

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#456

Post by whimsicalism »

DamnYuppie wrote: post #425
woeirua wrote: post #410

I won't feel one ounce of pity for the "investors" who lose their shirts when this bubble finally pops. We should regulate investors almost entirely out of housing. Yes, there is still a need for people with lots of capital to go in and repair dilapidated homes. But we don't need people hoarding homes and renting them out as AirBnbs.

I have seen AirBnB referenced many times in these comments as having something to do with the increase in home prices. From what I can find there are 660,000 AirBnB hosts in the US; this was found under the Airbnb Statistics by Region section from here https://www.stratosjets.com/blog/airbnb-statistics/ seems to also be found here https://ipropertymanagement.com/research/airbnb-statistics . Most likely both of those…

The key metric is homes where people want to live, not extant homes, which might be in various parts of repair.

Of course, the housing crisis is death by a thousand different cuts, but there are studies out there indicating in many cities AirBnB is responsible for around ~5% of the rental price.

For my apartment, that translates to paying ~$180/mo because of the induced demand from AirBnB.

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#457

Post by effingwewt »

jamestimmins wrote: post #420
gowld wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

H&R Block must be the harshest cycle, but also most predictable.

I believe those jobs are seasonal

They have downsized dramatically as well. They used to have permanent offices with seasonal satellites popping up. They have several-weeks' long training courses and began well ahead of tax season.

Now, they are a complete shitshow. I had an unusually complex return and decided to go with them. Big mistake.

While waiting (I had an appointment but that mattered not, I was waiting pver 1.5 hours).

My wait came to an end as I watched a kid, his wife and new daughter ask some questions no one knew how to answer.

His question was why he owed taxes. I, from my chair, knew the answer- he hadn't had anything deducted from his substantial unemployment and thus owed on those as he would have a regular job.

No one at this location, including the 'manager' knew or could find out this information. I watched as they slowly went up the ladder asking while trying not to freak out, and as the poor young couple were in hysetics.

I just left after seeing all of this.

They are reading the same or worse prompts than any free file service and are charging hundreds to thousands of dollars for the privilege and the 'tax experts' are anything but.

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#458

Post by ak217 »

kelnos wrote: post #446
ak217 wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Feel free to add an extra percentage point for a 10Y/30Y swap. One interesting hypothesis is that the focus on fixed-rate 30Y mortgages is fundamentally destabilizing for the US and world economy, because the stability and optionality of 30Y mortgages is paid for by added volatility of the 10Y debt market through those same swaps. Per this theory, US 30Y fixed-rate mortgages are effectively subsidized by the rest of…

Seems like most folks can barely avoid the monthly payment on a 30Y fixed; wouldn't 10Y being the norm just cause a lot of people to be unable to buy at all?

I don't know. The question is whether subsidizing 30Y mortgages (fannie mae/freddie mac/FHA/QE/standard terms enforced by law to enable refinancing, etc.) is the right policy in an open system where it has many major side effects, compared to other ways to adjust housing policy. For reference, Canada has no 30Y fixed mortgages - instead they have 5-10Y fixed terms and distinguish between prepayment for refinancing (exploiting the rate environment) vs. moving (the mortgage can be rolled into the new property). As a policy, this seems less likely to have destabilizing effects than what happens in the US (concentrating volatility by loading up the banks' balance sheets with trillions of refinanced debt at times of low interest rates for folks who happened to have the means and cash flow to refinance at the right time).

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#459

Post by UnpossibleJim »

woeirua wrote: post #410

I won't feel one ounce of pity for the "investors" who lose their shirts when this bubble finally pops. We should regulate investors almost entirely out of housing. Yes, there is still a need for people with lots of capital to go in and repair dilapidated homes. But we don't need people hoarding homes and renting them out as AirBnbs.

To be totally honest, it probably isn't the "AirBnB" types, but (at least in the Washington state area) the loosening of rent regulations, which allows single family homes and neighborhoods to be zoned and converted to multiple family units fairly cheaply and easily. Landlords buy these up, do conversions on the cheap (and with minimal knowledge, a lot of the time) and rent them out.

Rents have outpaced mortgage costs and the return on investment has been ridiculous. People all over here have jumped into it. Hell, I've had people tell me I should do it... No F'in way I'm dealing with tenants and house calls in the middle of the night, though. I fix my own house, poorly and struggle to do that. I fix computers and call people to fix the house, usually, so it gets done right. I venture out of my lane every once and again, but I know I'll usually call a professional =)

Re: Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks

#460

Post by bogomipz »

1270018080 wrote: post #423
woeirua wrote: post #410

I won't feel one ounce of pity for the "investors" who lose their shirts when this bubble finally pops. We should regulate investors almost entirely out of housing. Yes, there is still a need for people with lots of capital to go in and repair dilapidated homes. But we don't need people hoarding homes and renting them out as AirBnbs.

Is it a bubble? Where is the irrational exuberance? Lots of people need homes, there aren't enough, prices go up. And investors hoarding equity by forcing people to rent have a captive audience. Both of those aren't really tulip/crypto hysteria. It's just a shitty situation. I would love to see investors get burned too, but I don't think there's anything to pop. We're just a decade behind Canada.

I think the irrational exuberance is over. I think the period of exuberance ended when the 30 year fixed mortgages went above 5%. Of course people need homes but I think the interest rates combined with the energy costs to heat and/or cool that home along with the price of gas to get to and from that home have all started to make the purchase less viable for many. There's actually a bit of a rush right now for sellers to sell before rates go up further. See:

https://archive.ph/9uU3j

The other side is that anyone who sells right now will need to buy at the top of the market, possibly incur the 5%+ interests rates(if they didn't make out extremely well) and afford the increase in taxes on their new home's possibly insane property valuation. This is of course in addition to all the other current inflationary concerns of maintaining a house right now.

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