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How a French judge was digitally cut off by the USA

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Re: How a French judge was digitally cut off by the USA

#441

Post by KK7NIL »

general1465 wrote: post #361
beej71 wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that's the best they'll have until they can manufacture EUV machines domestically. And how far out is that?

According to this video (Asionometry - guy from Taiwan, hardly a PRC shill) Chinese EUV are now tested in Huawei factories and should come into production in 2026. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIR3wfZ-EV0

I rewatched the whole video and did not find where he said that. Quite the opposite, he says Chinese EUV academic research is at 2005 levels and is rather unimpressive.

Re: How a French judge was digitally cut off by the USA

#442

Post by arw0n »

ruszki wrote: post #368
tracker1 wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you may underestimate the ability of China to abuse industrial espionage at scale.

There are things which needs time, even with all or almost all the information at hand, just like with atomic bomb. I’m not sure whether this case similar to that, but that ASML in front for so much time indicates that their moot is probably not just information.

The US finished developing a nuclear bomb in 1945, by 1949 the Soviet Union had their own. I agree that it is probably not the same, there are a lot more moving parts in modern chip design. In fact, I have no idea how close Chinese companies are to developing SotA chips. But I do see China being consistently underestimated in western media and think tanks, so my intuitive reaction would be to cut that timeline in half if it is what western experts believe to be plausible.

Re: How a French judge was digitally cut off by the USA

#443

Post by tptacek »

1234letshaveatw wrote: post #422
dang wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you please stop posting unsubstantive comments and flamebait? You've unfortunately been doing it repeatedly. It's not what this site is for, and destroys what it is for. This topic is divisive and the thread has quite a few comments on the wrong side of the line, but yours stands out as particularly bad, and you've been doing it in other threads as well: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45813701 https://new…

[flagged]

He's referring to incivility, not to positions.

Re: How a French judge was digitally cut off by the USA

#444

Post by [deleted] »

triceratops wrote: post #338
TimorousBestie wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They're still there last time I checked. Hiroshima has a population of ~1m. Nagasaki closer to 300k. This is an argument by equivocation. There’s still a “World Trade Center” in NYC but it’s not the one that fell in 2001. Nor does saying it’s so restore the dead to life. > An invasion of Japan would have cost an order of magnitude more lives. It was the 4th year of an extremely bitter conflict that Japan started. T…

> in Truman’s place I would have extended the relative protection that Kyoto received to every large Japanese city and contained the air force to bombing primarily military and industrial targets Japan had dispersed industrial production widely by that point, including into workshops in people's homes. The Allies were already doing regular bombing. Japan outright refused to surrender. They had a faction that tried a…

[deleted]

Re: How a French judge was digitally cut off by the USA

#445

Post by wat10000 »

blibble wrote: post #321
wat10000 wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's the threat? "Do this or we'll stop helping you" is not a violation of sovereignty, distasteful though it may be in this case.

Article 3 of the Budapest memorandum[1]: > 3. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by the Republic of Belarus of the rights inherent in its sovereignty a…

I don't see how this qualifies. Being given weapons isn't part of sovereignty, and putting conditions on the continued flow of weapons isn't a violation of it.

Economic coercion attempting to violate sovereignty would be something like the threatened (actual?) tariffs on Brazil for imprisoning Bolsonaro.

Re: How a French judge was digitally cut off by the USA

#446

Post by KK7NIL »

immibis wrote: post #339
KK7NIL wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The best China has is an internationally uncompetitive "7nm" fab and that's the best they'll have until they can manufacture EUV machines domestically. So the EUV blockade has absolutely been effective and the fact that the PRC is paying so many shills to convince westerners otherwise just shows how behind they are.

Okay? There's a lot of chips you can make that aren't the cutting edge. You don't need a 4090 to do AI, as evidenced by all the AI we did before the 4090. You definitely don't need a (random Intel chip) 14900HX to do general-purpose computing, as evidenced by all the general-purpose computing we did before the 14900HX.

If each node provides a 10-15% improvement in power, performance and area, how many of those need to compound until your already uncompetitive 7 nm is 10x less efficient, slower and more expensive?

Re: How a French judge was digitally cut off by the USA

#447

Post by immibis »

KK7NIL wrote: post #446
immibis wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay? There's a lot of chips you can make that aren't the cutting edge. You don't need a 4090 to do AI, as evidenced by all the AI we did before the 4090. You definitely don't need a (random Intel chip) 14900HX to do general-purpose computing, as evidenced by all the general-purpose computing we did before the 14900HX.

If each node provides a 10-15% improvement in power, performance and area, how many of those need to compound until your already uncompetitive 7 nm is 10x less efficient, slower and more expensive?

Being behind doesn't mean they're permanently stuck where they are today - but aren't our processes running into the wall of soon trying to make transistors smaller than an atom?

Re: How a French judge was digitally cut off by the USA

#448

Post by immibis »

drysine wrote: post #409
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It had some weapons on their territory but could not use them. The red button was always in Moscow In the 90s. Twenty years buys lots of time for code cracking, reverse engineering and—if that fails—bullshitting. With the benefit of hindsight, Ukraine should have kept its nukes. (Finland, the Baltics, Poland and Romania should probably develop them.)

>Ukraine should have kept its nukes They would've quickly sold them to Iran like they did with nuclear capable missiles. [0] https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005-05/ukraine-admits-missi...

Are the nuclear capable missiles worth anything if you don't have nuclear warheads for them to deliver?

Re: How a French judge was digitally cut off by the USA

#449

Post by scheme271 »

aerostable_slug wrote: post #381
ruszki wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are things which needs time, even with all or almost all the information at hand, just like with atomic bomb. I’m not sure whether this case similar to that, but that ASML in front for so much time indicates that their moot is probably not just information.

See also: military jet engines. They can't replicate high end engines from Pratt & Whitney or GE even though I'm guessing Chinese intelligence services have a huge amount of relevant information. I don't know why that is.

It's probably hands on experience that's missing. Even with the all the technical details, often times there's practical details on using this machine or tiny tweaks that need to be made to get it working well.

Re: How a French judge was digitally cut off by the USA

#450

Post by immibis »

breppp wrote: post #298
immibis wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're talking about Hamas, right? hamas are the ones who tried to fight back against death squads and are now suffering the consequences of that?

The death squads are Hamas, that went on mass executions around Israeli towns, including rapes, looting, baby kidnappings, etc

what do we say of the israeli squads that did the same thing? do we say they don't count because only brown people can do bad things?
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