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The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

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Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#441
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The two companies reportedly signed an agreement [in 2023] stating OpenAI has only achieved AGI when it develops AI systems that can generate at least $100 billion in profits. https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-...

It's all so unfathomably stupid. And it's going to bring down an economy.

It's kind of sad, but I've found myself becoming more and more this guy whenever someone "serious" brings up AI in conversation: https://www.instagram.com/p/DOELpzRDR-4/

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh dear lord, GCP could be the intuitive one?! I have not used anything else but, dear lord, that's shocking and not at all surprising at the same time.

Yeah this is not the case at all lol. I actually find Azure to be far more intuitive after suffering through AWS and a little GCP. It certainly seems more stable in US regions than AWS. One thing I will say is the Azure documentation is some of the most cumbersome to navigate I've ever experienced, there is a dearth of information in there, you just have to know how to find it.

Doesn't a dearth mean a lack of?

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're missing context and/or didn't read OP's comment. He said "will" with regards to reaching AGI. He said "only AGI can find" with regards to profit. It was the latter that this thread was addressing.

You're missing context and/or didn't read OP's comment. He said "because". It will happen because that's the only way to reach profit. That's why it will happen.

Yeah, exactly. The context here was about the profitability part of OP's comment. The parent said "plenty of businesses fail to find a way to make a profit," and my point was that OP's statement doesn't contradict that. OP was saying they'll need AGI to be profitable, not that they're guaranteed to become profitable.

Sure, they phrased it as "they will reach AGI," but that's clearly tongue-in-cheek...the underlying idea is "they better reach AGI, because that's the only way they could make money." So my comment ("necessary, not sufficient") was just pointing out that even if AGI is required for profitability, it doesn't mean they'll actually get there or succeed once they do, and that the original comment was perfectly compatible with the idea that not every business reaches profitability.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#444
post #6

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. I wonder what criteria that panel will use to define/resolve this.

> The two companies reportedly signed an agreement [in 2023] stating OpenAI has only achieved AGI when it develops AI systems that can generate at least $100 billion in profits. https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-...

So Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, and Saudi Aramco are AGI

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#445
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The two companies reportedly signed an agreement [in 2023] stating OpenAI has only achieved AGI when it develops AI systems that can generate at least $100 billion in profits. https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-...

It's all so unfathomably stupid. And it's going to bring down an economy.

HN has big problem with reading comprehension. First of all $100B is likely what Microsoft demanded on top of what AGI is defined by OpenAI, which is “ highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work” - [0]. Secondly that is no longer part of this revised agreement, replaced with a review by a panel of experts.

[0] - https://openai.com/charter/

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#446
post #406

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yeah, this is a take I see by people who work in unix like environments (including macs). If anything Microsoft will grow much bigger. People are consolidating in Azure and away from GCP. easier to manage costs and integrate with their fleet. Windows workstations and servers are now "joined" to Azure instead, where they used to be joined to domain controller servers. Microsoft will soon enough stop supporting that ol…

Entra (formerly Azure Active Directory) is definitely a huge enterprise Azure driver, and MS knows it.

And it’s crap.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people didn't think we were anywhere close to LLM's five years ago. The capabilities we have now were expected to be a decades away, depending on who you talked to. [EDIT: sorry, I should have said 10 years ago... recent years get too compressed in my head and stuff from 2020 still feels like it was 2 years ago!] So I think a lot of people now don't see what the path is to AGI, but also realize they hadn't seen…

What people thought about LLMs five years ago, and how close we are to AGI right now are unrelated, and it's not logially sound to say "We were close to LLMs then, so we are close to AGI now." It's also a misleading view of the history. It's true "most people" weren't thinking about LLMs five years ago, but a lot of the underpinnings had been studied since the 70s and 80s. The ideas had been worked out, but the hardw…

[deleted]

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#448
post #55
post #6

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. I wonder what criteria that panel will use to define/resolve this.

This makes me feel that the extremely short AGI timelines might be less likely. To sign this deal today, presumably you wouldn’t bother if AGI is just around the corner? Maybe I’m reading too much into it.

OpenAI wants to be free from MS. The cost is 27% of ownership, which is about $135B currently, plus IP access until 2032. Considered MS invested about $10B initially, that’s a big concession on the part of OpenAI.

OpenAI’s Jakob Pachocki said on a call today that he expects that AI is “less than a decade away from superintelligence”

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#449

“OpenAI is now able to release open-weight models that meet requisite capability criteria.” Was Microsoft the blocker before? prior agreements clearly made true open-weights awkward-to-impossible without Microsoft’s sign-off. Microsoft had (a) an exclusive license to GPT-3’s underlying tech back in 2020 (i.e., access to the model/code beyond the public API), and (b) later, broad IP rights + API exclusivity on OpenAI…

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if OpenAI has done the math and determined that even releasing frontier quality models wouldn't put much of a dent in either their B2B or B2C businesses. Or, rather, that any such dent would be vastly overshadowed by the value of fending off potential competitors.

I haven't looked too much into Deepseek's actual business, but at least Mistral seemed to be positioning themselves as a professional services shop to integrate their own open-weight models, compliant with EU regulations etc, at a huge premium. Any firm that has the SOA open model could do the same and cannibalize OpenAI's B2B business---perhaps even eventually pivoting into B2C---especially if regulations, downtime or security issues make firms more cloud-skeptical with respect to AI. As long as OpenAI can establish and hold the lead for best open-weight/on-premise model, it will be hard for anyone to justify premium pricing so as to generate sufficient cash flow from training their own models.

I can even imagine OpenAI eventually deciding that B2C is so much more valuable to them than B2B that it's worth completely sinking the latter market...

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#450

Earlier quoted context omitted.

C#/.NET are nice. Azure/Microsoft Cloud not so nice. Idk, maybe I have some bias due to familiarity, but I find the GCP admin and tools to be so much more intuitive than the Azure (and AWS too, for that matter) counterparts.

Oh dear lord, GCP could be the intuitive one?! I have not used anything else but, dear lord, that's shocking and not at all surprising at the same time.

Yeah, agreed. I love C# & the .NET platform; I do not feel the same way about Azure. It’s still way better than GCP, though.
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