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How the AI Bubble Will Pop

derekthompson.org

441–450 of 531 posts

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#441
post #2

> Some people think artificial intelligence will be the most important technology of the 21st century. I don’t, I think a workable fusion reactor will be the most important technology of the 21st century.

What makes you think we'll have fusion reactors in the 21st century?

Helion has one under construction https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/helion-energy-starts...

Whether it works or not is of course another matter.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#442
> Let’s say ... you control $500 billion. You do not want to allocate that money one $5 million check at a time to a bunch of manufacturers. All I see is a nightmare of having to keep track of all of these little companies doing who knows what.

If only there was like, some sort of intelligence, to help with that..

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#443
post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same way you assess results in a programming language you have used before. In a more complicated project that might mean test suites. For a simple project (e.g. a Bash script) you might just run it and see if it does what you expect.

The way I assess results in a familiar programming language is by reviewing and reasoning through the code. Testing is necessary, but not sufficient by any means.

Out of curiosity, how do you assess software that you didn't write and just use, and that is closed source? Don't you just... use it? And see if it works?

Why this is inherently different?

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#444
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think we'll have fusion reactors in the 21st century?

I don’t think we’ll have the choice.

That's not how invention works though. Something has to be technically possible and we have to discover how to do it in a viable way.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think we'll have fusion reactors in the 21st century?

ITER apparently fires up in 2039.

That date means nothing though. We have yet to figure out how to run a fusion reactor for any meaningful period of time and we haven't figured out how to do it profitably.

Setting a date for when one opens is just a pipe dream, they don't know how to get there yet.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#446
post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes you think we'll have fusion reactors in the 21st century?

Helion has one under construction https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/helion-energy-starts... Whether it works or not is of course another matter.

Is it a fusion reactor if it can't maintain a fusion reaction and generator energy?

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#447
post #16
post #9

Article is behind paywall and is simply saying the same things that people have been saying about the post tech crash. Now, what this sort of article tends to miss (and I will never know because it’s paywalled like a jackass) is that these models services are used by everyday people for every day tasks. Doesn’t matter if they’re good or not. It enables them to do less work for the same pay. Don’t focus on the money t…

A handful of the largest companies cyclically investing and buying from each other is propping up the entire economy. Also stuff like Deepseek and other open source models exist. Unless AGI comes from LLMs (it absolutely won't) then its foolish to think there wont be a bubble

I was thinking it's a bit like developing powered flight and saying steam engines won't work. It's true they didn't but the internal combustion engine was developed which did. It was still an engine machined from metal but with a different design. I think LLM -> AGI will go like that - some design evolved from LLMs but different in important ways.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#448
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This friend told me she can't work without ChatGPT anymore. This isn't a sign that ChatGPT has value as much as it is a sign that this person's work doesn't have value.

What kind of logic is this? ChatGPT automates much of my friend's work at PwC making her more productive --> not a sign that ChatGPT has any value Farming machines automated much of what a farmer used to have to do by himself making him more productive --> not a sign that farming machines have any value

The output of a farm is food or commodities to be turned into food.

The output of PwC -- whoops, here goes any chance of me working there -- is presentations and reports.

“We’re entering a bold new chapter driven by sharper thinking, deeper expertise and an unwavering focus on what’s next. We’re not here just to help clients keep pace, we’re here to bring them to the leading edge.”

That's on the front page of their website, describing what PwC does.

Now, what did PwC used to do? Accounting and auditing. Worthwhile things, but adjuncts to running a business properly, rather than producing goods and services.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#449
post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TQQQ exists. There is a liquid market of TQQQ puts.

I'm trying to get out ahead of that and find an indicator that says it's about to collapse.

I don't think there's a good indicator for predicting it ahead of time. If you are worried you could switch from tech stocks to something more conservative.

You can sometimes tell when the collapse has started from the headlines though - stuff like top stocks down 30%, layoffs announced. Which may sound too late but with the dotcoms things kept going down for another couple of years after that.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#450
post #2

> Some people think artificial intelligence will be the most important technology of the 21st century. I don’t, I think a workable fusion reactor will be the most important technology of the 21st century.

Time travel will be the most important invention of the 21st century ;)

Time travel was the most important invention of the 1800s too, but that goes to show how bad resolving the temporal paradox issue is, now that entire history is gone.
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