Earlier quoted context omitted.
In 1981, I received a computer as a birthday gift at the young age of 13. Likely the first micro-computer in my small California town. When I took it to my Junior High science fair people were like stunned by a kid with a computer. When you turned on the computer, all you got was a flashing cursor wait for you to program in BASIC. The next year, a successful local business person asked me, if I thought in the future…
This is all true but it can be a little bit of survivor ship bias at play. Look at all the technology conferences over the last 40 years and for the most part you will see a grave yard of tens of thousand of ideas that looks promising but ended up going nowhere - sometimes simply due to being out maneuvered business wise. Bill Gates once said that in some ways Microsoft was lucky to be as succesful as they where, tha…
I am not sure why you are focusing on "survivor bias". My comment was about being a programmer and the fun of seeing a new technology that is an undefined territory to explore.
But I did directly mention that many of these do not workout as as I referenced: amiga, os/2, palm, and VisiCalc and Lotus 123
However, so that you may have some idea of my personal "survivor bias", here is a super simplified multi-dimension history of my over 43 years of computing smashed into a linear list with massive things forgotten:
TRS-80 Model III, LDOS, BASIC, VisiCalc,
modem-to-modem
TRS-80 Model 100
CompuServe
MS-DOS compatible, MultiPlan, TurboPascal, dBase
Windows 3.0
DesqView
Delphi Online
OS/2, REXX
Macintosh System 7 --> 1993 to OS X
Dial-up ISP
Solaris, Perl
BBEdit
Windows 95
Palm Pilot
Linux for Servers --> 1998 to Today
Linux Desktop
ColdFusion
Apache
Python --> 1999 to Today
Always on Internet (ISDN, DSL, Cable) --> 2004 to Today
Nokia cellphones
PHP
Zope/Plone
Mac OS X --> BETA to Today
Windows XP
Nginx
iPhone --> 2009 to Today
SublimeText
Windows 10 --> 2018 to Today
VS Code --> 2018 to Today
NodeJS --> 2018 to Today
SvelteKit --> 2021 to Today
KDE Neon --> 2022 to Today (the year of Desktop Linux arrived for me)
The longest thread is from 1993 to Today is what is now known as macOS, but for about the first 15 years of my usage Apple was considered at risk of failure. MS Windows was always a part of my world, but seldom my primary focus, it has only been since 2018 that I use it on an extended daily basis. Some of the above are clearly dead. Some I still use lightly (Nginx, BBEdit) but are no longer the focal point of my work.As far as Apple's Vision Pro, I have no clue if it will be successful. For myself personally, it is the first headset I am even interested in playing with.