Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater • Hacker News Board

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#441

Post by bitexploder » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:05 PM UTC

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #383

titzer wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. I'm not sure what you have in mind here, but my brother did an "owner build" in the true sense of the word and sunk every nail into every piece of wood, every pipe, every wire, every window, floor, staircase, insulation, lighting, built all the cabinets, everything. That was 8 years of his life. Two of those years he literally quit h…

I think the parent comment was suggesting to hire subcontractors to do most or all of the work. But I agree: It’s easy to greatly underestimate the amount of work that goes into a house. Contractors will have entire crews, all of the equipment they need, and most importantly they have years of experience to know how to do something quickly and in a way that will pass inspection. A DIYer must first learn each step bef…

I watched a carpet guy come in and install carpet in our basement in a day and a half. It was a significant sq ft install >1000. Guy was a machine. He had help on a few things, but did it all fast and very expertly. Impressive to watch someone that really knows a physical craft. It would have taken us 3-5x as long if we did it ourselves.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#442

Post by itsoktocry » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:06 PM UTC

ryan93 wrote: post #27

tayo42 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

I think people have just increased the fraction of their income they are willing to spend. If people in Austin will spend 50% of income instead of a third prices can go up a lot

>If people in Austin will spend 50% of income instead of a third prices can go up a lot

Exactly this. Somewhere along the lines in the past decade or so, it became completely normal to lend people 10x their income to buy a home, when historically that figure was 3.5x.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#443

Post by poetaster » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:06 PM UTC

btbuildem wrote: post #404

bildung wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> None of the mills started expanding or engaging in capital programs to try and take advantage of the increased prices. I'm a bit doubtful about this because I know that even German mills started to produce lumber with US dimensions, causing shortages for metric lumber locally.

Haha, and that was probably some of the straightest, most consistent lumber seen in North America in decades

German lumber is as badly milled as anywhere. My fortune is friends with tools.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#444

Post by cmckn » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:10 PM UTC

tayo42 wrote: post #25

mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

I tend to agree, but the numbers aren’t that crazy. My rent in the Seattle area is $2500/month. I could buy a reasonably-nice house here for around $750k. If you have a $150k down payment (which isn’t unrealistic to amass over ~5 years on a nice tech salary), your mortgage payment will come out to ~$3000/month. That’s not chump-change, and it’s more than my current rent; but you’re getting a lot more for your money. The numbers get a lot nicer if you’re splitting them with a partner.

Am I jumping to make this particular financial decision? Nah. But it’s not wildly out of reach.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#445

Post by macksd » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:11 PM UTC

bandyaboot wrote: post #8

I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”

This was the biggest lesson I learned during my first pre-IPO quiet period. Seemed like everything I read that was inferring things from the S-1 or forecasting the future were immediately wrong or turned out to be wrong in the end. I suspect there's a lot of the Gell-Mann amnesia effect going on in the economy.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#446

Post by Schiendelman » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:14 PM UTC

baremetal wrote: post #400

i quit my software job and bought 20 acres of undeveloped farmland. then i got a job on a framing crew so i could learn to build my own house. built a polebarn on the land so far. and getting ready to dig a foundation probably next year. its been the most exciting fulfilling adventure of my life so far. just got first harvest last month.

I'm in a software job now, have some land, and I'm considering doing the same. Would you be willing to talk about your journey? I'd happily come help sometime too!

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#447

Post by y-c-o-m-b » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:16 PM UTC

bandyaboot wrote: post #8

I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”

I was also in that camp. I figured it would go the way of gasoline where they'd conjure up constant excuses to keep the price high almost indefinitely. "A missile landed in the middle of a farm in Uzbekistan, we better increase gas price $0.50/gallon due to global instability concerns".

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#448

Post by mitchell_h » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:17 PM UTC

baremetal wrote: post #400

i quit my software job and bought 20 acres of undeveloped farmland. then i got a job on a framing crew so i could learn to build my own house. built a polebarn on the land so far. and getting ready to dig a foundation probably next year. its been the most exciting fulfilling adventure of my life so far. just got first harvest last month.

I live on >100 acres and maintain a software job. Spend all day in front of a computer and all night in the dirt. Only thing we grow is a 1/2 acre garden. We stick to live stock. I much prefer watching pigs, chickens and cows grow. Feels so much more real.

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#449

Post by 99_00 » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:17 PM UTC

nebula8804 wrote: post #174

99_00 wrote: post #159

Lumber prices peaked the day after a story about Lumber prices made the front page of hacker news. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27788549

Your link leads to a blank page

This is what was in the post. The imgur link seems to be dead now too.

Lumber mania is sweeping North America (May 6, 2021. 119 points) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27036557

Lumber price peaks May 7, 2021.

https://imgur.com/ynWJtwQ

source: https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/lbs

The lumber bubble burst. Here’s what comes next (June 22, 2021)

https://fortune.com/2021/06/22/lumber-prices-bubble-burst-pr...

Re: Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

#450

Post by larrywright » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 4:17 PM UTC

smabie wrote: post #58

tayo42 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

who has all this money to spend? everywhere everything is so expensive. i make a ton, and this doesn't add up. nothing about home prices seems to add up.

I think for a lot of (white collar) people, the last year and a half of covid has been the most lucrative time of their entire lives. Crazy returns across all asset classes.

In terms of my stock portfolio (just 401k/IRA and some shares in an employee stock purchase program), most definitely. I actually feel a bit guilty about that. So many people have struggled financially but I did not. Top that off with seeing so many people jumping to new jobs, and discussion about big bumps in salary due to competition… it’s hard not to see that there’s a huge disparity between the tech sector and everyone else.