Lumber crash leads to 'blowout' sales as prices crater

Post by hpoe » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 3:34 AM UTC

throwdecro wrote: post #23

mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

Watch out for HELOCs in what sense? Who would loan money to a homeowner with an underwater house, not matter how much they clamor?

Post by renewiltord » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 3:39 AM UTC

ghshephard wrote: post #22

bandyaboot wrote: post #8

I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”

100% of the analysts that I read, and, if I'm not mistaken, close to 100% of the mill owners recognized that this was a temporary blip, and that lumber would fall back into the $500sh range (There is a natural floor - that's the price at which BC mills no longer make money and start shutting down/curtailing capacity.) None of the mills started expanding or engaging in capital programs to try and take advantage of the…

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 3:40 AM UTC

542458 wrote: post #10

llbeansandrice wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait, people were saying/thought that this was runaway inflation and not a result of supply chain issues because of COVID and tons of people suddenly having to spend way more time in their house because of COVID? Maybe I'm ignorant of the inflation argument more than anything else but it doesn't even pass the sniff test in my opinion.

There seems to be a group of people who predict hyperinflation at the drop of a hat. I’m not sure if it’s paranoia or motivated reasoning though. Maybe a mix of both?

Post by edrxty » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 3:40 AM UTC

hellbannedguy wrote: post #37

mgkimsal wrote: post #13

"If high prices held you back from building, you are in luck, as the tables have now turned" Except... many builders will find some other reason/excuse where prices are high to keep prices high. We were looking at building a house - talked to builder last November and... looking at $470-$480k range (ballpark estimate). Lumber was going higher, but we'd reduced the house plan size. Lumber kept going up... and up... Th…

I would wait. I'm an licensed inactive General Contractor. If 14 months ago, they were building them for $450,000, I'd wait. I'd shop around for another contractor too. A young guy starting out, might save you a lot. (There's no way to verify he knows what he's doing though.) If you are some what handy, it's not that difficult to owner build your own house. That is if you get the blueprints past the town's council. G…

Post by godelski » Thu, Sep 16, 2021, 3:42 AM UTC

542458 wrote: post #15

bandyaboot wrote: post #8

I’ve been following these prices closely for most of the year and what’s striking to me is just how wrong nearly all the industry experts were throughout the year. I don’t recall reading a single opinion that was anything other than “prices will remain very high for the foreseeable future.”

I’m not sure if you’re referring to economic or lumber experts, but the more reputable economists that I saw were mostly saying that the price shocks should be transitionary. For example, https://mobile.twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/13895559570767...