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Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

economist.com

441–450 of 606 posts

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#441
post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So if there was a test that could tell if you've eaten chocolate in the last 30 days, then you required applicants to not eat chocolate ever, passing that would be an indicator of a good employee? Seems really arbitrary and pointless when you take out all the drug war baggage out of it.

I think it odd that the strongest opposition to testing is from people who clearly don't smoke. Its a test of self introspection and awareness and intelligence, not solely discipline. Its not a simple binary "have you been within 10 meters of the devils weed in the past month T/F" question. To fail a test after 30 days of normal peeing takes something like weeks of Cheech and Chong 2.0 behavior to build up the level…

> Its a test of self introspection and awareness and intelligence, not solely discipline.

If that was true it would be more efficient to design a test (assuming such a test is currently possible) to measure self-introspection, awareness, intelligence, and discipline. Oh, wait -- don't many people claim an undergraduate degree is also a signal for those things?

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#442
post #407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Top surgeons? My girlfriend’s cousin is a new doctor in Texas and makes a decent amount >$400k as a brand new doctor at a hospital. “”” The salary figures fall short of numbers reported by other survey groups: a Medical Group Management Association report using 2010 data, found that the average compensation for radiologists was $471,253 and for pediatricians it was $192,148, Kaiser Health News reports. “”” http://tim…

No wonder you spend enormous amounts of money on health care in the states. In Norway most doctors makes just above $100,000. I guess this is more or less comparable to the rest of Europe.

Doctor pay has almost nothing to do with the absurd medical costs. With 1.1m doctors in the US, and median pay at 180k, that's $200B. US healthcare spending is 3.2 trillion. Beyond that, I think they deserve that much when factoring in the cost of education, liability of the job, and decrease in years of employment.

Here's some math:

- median age of retirement: 63.

- median UPS salary over lifetime: $70k.

- UPS driver lifetime earnings = 70k * (63-18) = $3.15m

- Median doctor salary: They usually earn around 150k total during their residency, and the median is around 180k beyond that (typically age 30+)

- MD lifetime earnings = 150k + 180k*33 = 6.09m.

- MD education debt is typically around 500k, adjusting earnings to 5.59m. Accounting for hours worked, MD equivalent lifetime earnings are 3.72m.

I mean no disrespect to the work ethic of any blue collar job, but do you really believe the guy who cured you of cancer isn't worth the extra 600k over their lifetime compared to the guy who dropped off your replacement phone charger?

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I hate the drug testing bs. How is that relevant? If the worker is present, is sober Have you ever seen a lathe accident, for example? You can't spot test for being high on marijuana or pills like you can for drunkenness, so you rely on the urine test to keep everyone on the floor safe from being crushed in a press by a stoned co-worker (or themselves.)

Here in Germany it's illegal to drug test your employees and yet there are less fatal injuries at work compared to the US ( https://sites.google.com/site/ryoichihoriguchi/home/occupati... ).

[deleted]

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They say "There are no bad dogs, just bad owners." I think the problems are cultural. (a) Two working parents or a single parent family may result in children "being raised by wolves" to some extent. These are good parents/people but child rearing is a time intensive business. (b) Lack of jobs for young people. In my neighborhood, a lot of lawn mowing jobs are done by services instead of the neighborhood kid. The "en…

Kids don't walk to school in many modern neighborhoods because they're not designed to be safe for walking, sliced through by wide high-speed arterials that encourage driving at dangerous speeds. I grew up in a 1900-1920s neighborhood and most kids walked to school.

So some of the reasons are "structural" as well. Good point. I bet there are other, similar, reasons along those lines.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#445
post #93
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's more about the attitude of not being prepared. Someone who is prepared will go to bed early enough to allow them to show up on time without being exhausted.

That's just favoring the early birds. Go look at statistics on lack of sleep, and consider the massive health, productivity and creativity implications. Surely, you will not assert that a third of the population lack sleep because of attitude or responsibility issues?

I'm no early bird, but I can still keep a schedule if I must. I suffered years of waking up at stupid o'clock for public school, frequently sleep deprived, and that was back when I only knew about caffeine for helping to counteract sleepiness... These days I'm fortunate enough to be working for a geographically distributed team. I'm salaried. I can work from home when I want (and did almost all the time for 2 of my 3.5 years).

I generally come into the office around 10:30am, though sometimes it'll be 8am. I wouldn't mind coming in around 2pm and working into the evening, but I frequently need to work with other employees who have a more normal schedule, and I have an 11am standup so I have to be awake by then anyway. When I know I need to go to sleep, I pop a melatonin tablet and put on a sleep mask to block out light. When I first started, I forced myself to bed before 11 each night and made sure to be at the office before 9 each morning, until I observed that people didn't care about strict schedules.

There's an understanding that as long as I make the meetings I agree to (some are in person and require travel) and management is happy with my output, my schedule can be quite flexible. Some weeks will be less than 40 hours, some weeks will be > 50 because of some deep bug I just want to get over with. Some days I'll spend a bit too much time on HN or taking breaks to the snack kitchen, other days I'll sit down when I arrive in the morning and not stand again until late at night due to focus. It all tends to balance out. In any case when the lines aren't drawn clearly it's important to find out at what point the fuzzy boundary becomes solid. This "cultural shift" that OP was complaining about is just the new generation of employees finding out where the hard borders actually are, and discovering that at many firms they're a lot further back than they used to be and they can be pushed even further with a bit of pressure. I'm waiting to see someone show up to work in a fursuit, and wish there were an old-timer suited IBM employee there to witness it too. Many firms have realized that to a large extent, for many jobs what you wear simply doesn't matter.

At a previous job, I also had a pretty flexible schedule, but we tried to keep it "between 10 and 11" yet I kept coming in closer and closer to 11 all the time until a few times I was in after 11 and more than once I overslept and came in past noon. We changed it to "be here by 10 or we might have to cut ties". No further problems.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone who smoked a joint a couple days ago can absolutely work with concrete cutters or 1k volt lines.

Can someone who smoked a joint 30 minutes ago? Can someone who smoked a joint a couple days ago be trusted not to smoke one 30 minutes before starting work with the concrete cutters? Trusted enough to bet your company on? (Because you know that if the worker smokes a joint just before working with the concrete cutters, and someone gets injured or killed, the owner loses the company in the lawsuit.)

> Can someone who drank a beer a couple days ago be trusted not to drink one 30 minutes before starting work with the concrete cutters? Trusted enough to bet your company on? (Because you know that if the worker drinks a beer just before working with the concrete cutters, and someone gets injured or killed, the owner loses the company in the lawsuit.)

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$400k is what senior executives of major multinational companies get paid. It's also what top surgeons get paid. I highly doubt that blue collar workers get anywhere near that much. If they did, everyone would try to work in that industry because the barrier to entry is comparatively very low.

Top surgeons? My girlfriend’s cousin is a new doctor in Texas and makes a decent amount >$400k as a brand new doctor at a hospital. “”” The salary figures fall short of numbers reported by other survey groups: a Medical Group Management Association report using 2010 data, found that the average compensation for radiologists was $471,253 and for pediatricians it was $192,148, Kaiser Health News reports. “”” http://tim…

@Thlom well they have these exorbitant medical school loans to pay off, you see...

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#448
post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where can one go to learn these "blue collar" skills? As a recent home owner I'm learning first hand how valuable these skills are by way of my wallet. Seems like most people I meet who do these kinds of jobs were "born into it", and learned by helping a family member who was already in the industry. Are there IIT type schools which teach these kinds of things on a part time basis?

For a great many, youtube is surprisingly awesome. My normal approach to home DIY now is to watch as many youtube videos of the process I want to try as possible, then make a determination if it is something I still want professional help with or can try to do myself.

Agreed. I just tore down an old chimney, ripped out the wall, replaced the floor, the wall, put in a big window, fixed the section of the roof, and put in a new wood stove. Just youtube and google search to figure most of it out. I did have to "phone a friend" a few cases, but that could have been done on a forum with greater latency. I figure that I saved a lot of money doing this myself.

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#449

>> "Anecdotaly, about 20% of new hires under 30 don’t understand the concept of showing up on time (or at all)" Don't kid yourself. Those new hires are at other jobs making more money. I am booked for a roofer in feb 2018 (fingers crossed - friend of a friend). Blue skills are in extremely high demand. And those guys are working extremely hard making really high incomes (400k+). These guys are highly paid and are not…

As an exception that’s not a counterargument: in the 90’s, the galvanized-to-copper repipe plumber (and helpers including a son) whom did the house I grew up in also did dozens of houses in a wealthy area around SJ/Los Gatos for several years, raking in $200k+ personally for that time and probably later. Mostly referrals. Amazing, prompt, proactive customer service, setting expectations, after support and cool guy.

Professionalism, negotiation skills and quality service encourage referrals in places where friends / neighbors know one-another. That is, towns where customers having fewer friends or acquaintances (like neighbors or social media connections) tend not to scale via referral network effects. Also, a lifestyle business can scale somewhat by adding good employees carefully and encouraging a decency culture with accountability.

TL;DR - better companies need better cultures; keep superconnector customers insanely happy

Re: Blue-collar wages are surging. Can it last?

#450

This comment (not by me; the poster name isn't even visible anymore): > Illegal border crossings on the southern border are down 78% and blue collar wages are rising. Of course correlation does not equal causation, but when there are fewer available workers to hire/train and demand remains constant, wages tend to rise. was marked dead. Why? Is the illegal crossing number wrong/fake news?

Well I have something to share precisely about that. Was in 2001 prior to 9/11 in south Indiana. I applied to a factory. And another one. And another one. Nothing. No bites. I then found work at a gas station Subway across the first factory. Our primary business were the factories. 9/11 happened. Within days, the factories shut down. We at subway were like "WTF happened?" Cause we were staffed like normal for rush. T…

>I know I understood the blue collar hatred of illegals. I've been on the receiving end of that. Not that its right, mind you- but understanding others viewpoints is the start of fixing them.

Of course it's right to hate people who have no respect for your country's laws and have a meaningful negative impact on your quality of life. You're trying to make it into a racial issue to excuse people who make life worse for blue collar workers. It's also why they hate politicians: they aren't making decisions that benefit blue collar workers. (Starting with NAFTA.)

More than half of immigrants are on welfare: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/09/01/immigr...

Who knows how crazy the expense is for illegals.

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