Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight • Hacker News Board

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#441

Post by spiderfarmer » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 8:25 AM UTC

dingo_bat wrote: post #387

api wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Worst case scenario: nothing. The R&D goes away. Look at aerospace for a nightmare scenario. In the early 20th century we got fixed wing flight. In the teens and 20s we got motorized fighters and the first passenger planes. In the 40s we got jets. In the 50s we broke the sound barrier and orbited Sputnik. In the 60s we landed on the Moon. In the 70s we... stopped going to the Moon. In the 80s nothing much happened ex…

This is pretty depressing.

Maybe it is. But if the general public is happy with what they already have, manufacturers tend to iterate instead of innovate. Getting from europe to australia two times faster, for ten times the normal ticket price makes me settle for the slower option.

Even a 200% increase in CPU performance won't bring the general public back to desktop PC's they don't really need, because they are satisfied with what they have. We need something truly disruptive and get people interested in something else.

Right now there are a lot of experiments (AR, VR, wearables, transparent screens, lightfield, new batteries, etc) which will, probably when combined into a truly attractive package, change everything. Again.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#442

Post by lmm » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 8:26 AM UTC

trustfundbaby wrote: post #425

zmmmmm wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Otherwise there is no sense in hiring an H1B with the same salary plus all the H1B related fees and expenses I am sure some employers will perceive them as more compliant employees, given their visa status depends on their continued employment.

If you're looking for compliant employees, why go through the trouble of hiring an h1b employee, bringing them from a different country and paying all the fees associated with processing visas and probably a green card process, and paying them the same or higher (usually, the outsourcing body shops are generally the places that play below market for h1b) ... if you can just find and American to do the same thing? Hel…

> If you're looking for compliant employees, why go through the trouble of hiring an h1b employee, bringing them from a different country and paying all the fees associated with processing visas and probably a green card process, and paying them the same or higher (usually, the outsourcing body shops are generally the places that play below market for h1b) ... if you can just find and American to do the same thing?

The argument is that you can't, because American workers know their rights - rights that every employee should have and stand on, but sadly those from other countries don't always know about.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#443

Post by majewsky » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 8:28 AM UTC

reality_czech wrote: post #385

nsxwolf wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently it works just as djslumdog says -- people like him/her will continue doing the small amount of important work that can't be automated, and will be compensated handsomley to do so. They will fly around the world, enjoying vacations, live in large homes, eat lavish meals. Everyone else will live in 100 square foot apartments in Soviet-style concrete bunkers, eating ramen (or possibly Soylent). But they won't…

Poor people are among the most overweight because food is so cheap in the US. I don't see why implementing Basic Income would magically make food expensive or make people have to "eat ramen or possibly Soylent." Anyway, the world you are so worried about is already here. A small number of people do continue to do important work that can't be automated. Most other work is unecessary busy work. Artists and musicians al…

> The endgame is that we're all government employees in a Dilbertesque hell.

I once heard about the British Colonial Office. The time when it had the most employees was precisely the time when it was dissolved because Britain did not have colonies anymore. They were all just shuffling papers around all day.

I sadly don't have a source for that. Does anyone have a link, by any chance?

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#444

Post by lmm » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 8:28 AM UTC

mtgx wrote: post #136

dismal2 wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

quote from zerohedge: Instead of using the same tax rate as a year ago, when it had an effective tax rate of 25.5%, this quarter the tax rate was down 7.1% to just 18.4%. Had INTC used the historical tax rate, it would have, surprise, missed. Worse, INTC just cut its outlook, predicting revenue of $13.5 billion, plus or minus $500 million, for the Q2, about $700MM below consensus estimates.

So Intel is dodging taxes as well now?

When you lose money you generally pay less tax. Nothing illegitimate about that.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#445

Post by paulmd » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 8:35 AM UTC

partiallypro wrote: post #238

thecourier wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

man, I do believe the market in general is over valued. but not from the PE ratio. that metric is almost in shape: https://www.quandl.com/data/MULTPL/SP500_PE_RATIO_MONTH-S-P-... check how high it was in the 2000 and 2008, we're aren't even close

If you'll look at your chart, those peaks in ~2002 & ~2009 were market bottoms, earnings had already dropped precipitously; and they were also black swan events. Historically from a F P/E and P/E ratio, the market is overvalued, even without a black swan. Also when you look at the debt market right now, it does not look healthy at all. That's usually a sign that something is brewing, usually a recession. However, sto…

2002 was a black swan event (because of 9/11); 2009 not so much, many institutions had been calling the housing bubble since 2004 and even Greenspan acknowledged it in 2007. A bubble that is acknowledged as such 2 years in advance by the central bank is not a black-swan event (defined as a surprise event that is impossible to predict).

The 2008 bubble was eminently predictable. The problem was that no one knew the exact trigger, and no one had a politically acceptable means to deflate the bubble until the domino effect started, and then hedge funds and then major banks started collapsing.

Until the knife started falling, no one had a financial incentive to stop. After all, subprime mortgages have crazy interest rates, and if you're BoA or JP Morgan Chase, the government will probably step in to stop your collapse...

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#446

Post by purplelobster » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 8:35 AM UTC

tma-1 wrote: post #39

So Intel is cutting 11% of its workforce, Goldman Sachs just reported a 56% drop in profits, Morgan Stanley had a 50% drop in profits, Netflix missed subscriber growth estimates etc... yet, the Dow just hit a 9-Month high, and the S&P500 is now above 2100. The whole market is overvalued, not just the tech unicorns.

I love it when people make doom and gloom predictions. If you are so convinced, put your money where your mouth is. Short the S&P500 with everything you've got and post a screen shot here.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#447

Post by SixSigma » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 8:56 AM UTC

mfukar wrote: post #401

SixSigma wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aside from if he's right or not, that is the belief one would expect him to hold, his other option is "looks like I'm a bad investor after all".

One can't be a bad investor and learn from their mistakes, presumably?

Yes one can learn but when one's investment is correlated to how one talks about it, best to keep those lessons to yourself and make better investments in future.

"My investments are over valued, oh the lessons I have learned"

"All investments are overvalued, oh the lessons we will learn"

are two very different statements.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#448

Post by ovi256 » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 8:58 AM UTC

drewm1980 wrote: post #411

teraflop wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You yell, "But people lose their jobs..." There are more jobs, plus why does everyone need a job anyway? This is kind of silly. Job losses are a bad thing precisely because we don't yet live in a world where you can get by on a guaranteed minimum income without a job. If you think it's worthwhile to push society in that direction, then great, but don't kid yourself that believing in it is the same as having already…

Some european countries have already achieved this; your unemployment benefits after getting fired are a significant fraction of your previous salary, and slowly ramp down. You pay for it in taxes (and then some), but at least you know you can still make rent if you get canned.

You also pay for a bureaucracy to perform administration and fight abuse. That consumes a fraction of the system's resources. It's hard to argue that this adds much value, or any.

What this system boils down to is a compulsory savings scheme. So an alternative would be a voluntary savings scheme, which would have higher efficiency by not consuming resources for administration.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#449

Post by decasteve » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 9:16 AM UTC

mixedbit wrote: post #163

What Intel needs is some reason for people to do compute intensive tasks on their computers. Today games are probably the only popular type of app that requires abundant CPU power, for most other popular activities CPU usage is low which doesn't motivate to upgrade hardware. Maybe VR can change this?

Software developers have all moved to the server or mobile. Nobody pushing the envelope on PC software any more. That's the impression I get.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#450

Post by forgetsusername » Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 9:18 AM UTC

tma-1 wrote: post #146

mathattack wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Goldman's stock price is approximately 25% off it's 12 month high. [0] Morgan Stanley is approximately 35% off. [1] Seems like the market is properly taking in their bad news. Some parts of the market do fine, others get hit. And yes, some might be over-valued. When interest rates are low, the future cash flows of companies are discounted back at a lower rate. So if all things are equal (which they never really are,…

Both GS and MS (as well as other FIs) are off there highs because of all the volatility in the markets the past 6 months and worries about losses from bad energy loans. BAC, WF, Citi are all off their 12-month highs by a significant margin despite doing relatively well in Q1. Also, this has nothing to do with discounting the cash flows, it's mostly stock buybacks that's driving all the action: http://www.bloomberg.co…

>worries about losses from bad energy loans

GS has $11BB in oil sector exposure. MS is $4.8BB. BofA and Citi are around $20BB. JPM is around $15BB. These are fractions of total loans outstanding (MS is 5%, all the rest are much smaller). Each of these banks has more in reserves than oil loan exposure. Does that sound scary to you?

Again, relatively sophisticated investors understand these things. This is basic research. Where is your evidence?