As you read these comments, I'll repeat mine from an earlier post: Don't come to HN for legal, medical, or economic advice!
Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight
231–240 of 531 posts
Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight
#232Earlier quoted context omitted.
Am I the only person for whom the answer to this question is "almost none?" I'm serious: about 80% of my day is meeting with real people in the real world. Mobile phones haven't changed that. The other 20% of my day is sitting at my desk creating original work product (mathematical models and thoughtful memoranda) or reviewing the work product of others. Mobile phones haven't changed that, either. No doubt the drough…
Yeah, mobile hasn't figured out a good way to take over the workspace. Some of the tablet/laptop hybrids are getting closer. As for entertainment though, are you watching Youtube extensively on your desktop?
> Yeah, mobile hasn't figured out a good way to take over the workspace. Some of the tablet/laptop hybrids are getting closer.
There already is a relatively mobile tablet/desktop hybrid that works pretty great for both consumption and getting work done. It's called a laptop.
> As for entertainment though, are you watching Youtube extensively on your desktop?
Yes. I have a phone, a tablet, a desktop, and a laptop. The tablet is pretty much only used for netflix and textbooks, and the phone is for travelling. The tablet is absolutely worthless for browsing, coding, writing, or gaming; and the phone is only saved by the form factor. If I had (the space for) a TV then the tablet would be a completely unjustifiable purchase.
Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight
#233Earlier quoted context omitted.
More computers are being sold than ever before. The market is absolutely saturated with computing devices. And aside from the intense competition Intel is facing, they're suffering the same issue that the GPU makers face -- I once upgraded yearly because the gains made it worthwhile. Now I upgrade pretty much only when something fails. It is absolutely picking a narrative.
Maybe they should adjust their business to account for this new cycle of usage, and not fight it
That's why they're cutting 11% of their workforce.
Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight
#234Intel ranks #14 in H1B use and was a large proponent of the bill to increase the allowance foreign tech workers.
So I'm assuming their inability to find 'talent' is no longer an issue? Same as Microsoft, IBM, and the numerous other big corps that have had massive layoffs recently, while also claiming an inability to find enough US tech workers?
Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight
#235Earlier quoted context omitted.
The GAAP P/E of the S&P is now at 24.28, that's near, if not, a record high. That's bad. It's very overvalued historically. Banking stocks are doing badly because interest rates are so low across the curve that they can't make money from the spread. But even at that, they are overvalued along with various momentum stocks like Tesla, Netflix (which we saw implode yesterday.)
man, I do believe the market in general is over valued. but not from the PE ratio. that metric is almost in shape: https://www.quandl.com/data/MULTPL/SP500_PE_RATIO_MONTH-S-P-... check how high it was in the 2000 and 2008, we're aren't even close
Those gigantic spikes represent plunges in earnings, not spikes in share prices... If you look right before the spikes, you'll see PE ratios in the mid- to high-twenties.
Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight
#236I'm not sure how much of an effect this would have, but from a consumer's point of view, there isn't as much of a reason to buy a new PC every few years anymore. The laptop I'm using right now was purchased in 2011, and the prices in stores now are very comparable to what I paid back then. I've made up my mind to buy a new one a few times, but then when I go to the store, it just isn't worth it.
Exactly the tech industry has been incapable of coming out with new functionality that really requires more power. The only thing I can see which is going to benefit a lot from CPU power is more advance AI or machine learning built in. But we are only seeing very gradual moves in this area now. VR and Games are also candidates of course, but most people aren't hard core gamers. They are fine with Angry Birds ;-) And…
Even games are slowing down a lot in their requirements, aside from that VR garbage.
Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight
#237Earlier quoted context omitted.
The stimuls mode is a permanent regime now. It's good in the short term, but I do not know if anybody understood mid- and long-term consequences of this new permanent mode.
"The stimulus mode is a permanent regime now" As a general FYI to those reading -- please fact check before commenting. The Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program ended on Oct 29th, 2014 (538 days ago!) It is difficult to assert that a program which ended over 500 days ago is permanent. Additionally, one may be willing to assert that "ZIRP is permanent regime now" too, to tack onto the culture that central ban…
Yes it's permanent. Interest rates are still super low, meaning companies can still take on debt to buy back their stock. The effect of quantitive easing remains until interest rates start going up and the Fed start buying government bonds from the banks.
Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight
#238Earlier quoted context omitted.
The GAAP P/E of the S&P is now at 24.28, that's near, if not, a record high. That's bad. It's very overvalued historically. Banking stocks are doing badly because interest rates are so low across the curve that they can't make money from the spread. But even at that, they are overvalued along with various momentum stocks like Tesla, Netflix (which we saw implode yesterday.)
man, I do believe the market in general is over valued. but not from the PE ratio. that metric is almost in shape: https://www.quandl.com/data/MULTPL/SP500_PE_RATIO_MONTH-S-P-... check how high it was in the 2000 and 2008, we're aren't even close
If you'll look at your chart, those peaks in ~2002 & ~2009 were market bottoms, earnings had already dropped precipitously; and they were also black swan events. Historically from a F P/E and P/E ratio, the market is overvalued, even without a black swan. Also when you look at the debt market right now, it does not look healthy at all. That's usually a sign that something is brewing, usually a recession. However, stocks can continue higher, blow off tops are common place in the last phases of a bull market.
My fear is that the central banks are pumping so much liquidity into the market that they are driving up equities and pushing people out of safer assets into things like high yield bonds and momentum stocks. If we do have a recession, the pain could be worse than usual (for stocks) for the mere fact that the debt market could have liquidity problems when tons of funds begin to pull their money out at once from HY.
Not to mention all of the corporate buybacks that companies are doing by leveraging, because cash is too expensive to bring back overseas.
You can still invest in solid companies, but companies like Tesla, Netflix, anything with a super high P/E is going to be taken out back and shot (that doesn't mean the companies will go out of business, only that their stocks are much like Amazon in the 2000s.)
Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight
#239So Intel is cutting 11% of its workforce, Goldman Sachs just reported a 56% drop in profits, Morgan Stanley had a 50% drop in profits, Netflix missed subscriber growth estimates etc... yet, the Dow just hit a 9-Month high, and the S&P500 is now above 2100. The whole market is overvalued, not just the tech unicorns.
I don't see why job losses are a bad thing. The last generation of machines was built so well that people don't need new ones. Good! This should be a great thing. Valuing growth over sustainability makes these backwards ass goals of hiring more, building more and growing. The way this is spun is pretty horrible. Amazon and Wal-mart losing is a good thing for the environment and society as a whole. You yell, "But peop…
> You yell, "But people lose their jobs..." There are more jobs, plus why does everyone need a job anyway?
This is kind of silly. Job losses are a bad thing precisely because we don't yet live in a world where you can get by on a guaranteed minimum income without a job.
If you think it's worthwhile to push society in that direction, then great, but don't kid yourself that believing in it is the same as having already accomplished it.
Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight
#240Earlier quoted context omitted.
How can the whole market be overvalued? Prices are relative, no?
it works like this: Imagine you have a huge amount of money, enough to buy whole companies like Apple, Coca Cola and Walmart. you want to keep your money and even make it grow, so you're looking for good businesses to buy. I have one company for sale at USD329 billions, it grows 50%-100% a year for now and currently generates USD3.29 billions I have another company for sale at USD219 billions, it is shrinking at 1.4%…
That's very interesting, thank you for posting this!