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What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

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431–440 of 687 posts

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If eastern Germany is still affordable like that then it might be for a reason. I'm not German, but you can't complain there's no affordable housing when there actually is, but you just don't want it. Just because you only want to move only to a specific city you like, that has the "right vibe", where others also want to live, it's not society's fault you're too picky and you think you're too good for other more aff…

This is just the just world fallacy in a post. If you lived in Germany you would understand that statements like this that you wrote: > doesn't make you a special snowflake worthy of the German society to turn itself upside down for you and roll the red carpet and make life super easy for you are utterly, utterly ridiculous. There is absolutely no risk whatsoever of Germany "rolling the red carpet" for immigrants. It…

> the vast majority of 1M Syrian refugees will never, ever, ever integrate into German society. I had no opinion on this before I moved here, now it's obvious.

The parents maybe won’t. But their kids. Watch out in the real world or on TV for the children of Syrian refugees that came here in 2016. In the mean time many of those graduated from German schools now and speak German very well (schools invested quite a bit in making sure of that) and learn a profession or even enroll in a University program.

While Germany is certainly not a classic immigration country like the US is, as a German I really got the impression that we became much more open minded. Personally, at my work place we started out as a prototypical mid-range company financed by Bavarian entrepreneurs and were pretty much speaking German only. Nowadays (10 years later) we‘ve got many Indian, Turkish and Eastern European colleagues and speak almost only English in meetings. Even our CEO is non-German now. I don’t think that would have worked 10 years ago nut younger co-workers nowadays tend to be much more proficient in speaking English.

Of course, living in Munich and Berlin won’t give you quite the same experience like living in Rostock-Lichtenhagen… but parent mentioned she or he plans on founding a start-up. Office space is less expensive in smaller cities like Rostock (or Wismar or you name your favorite less world famous German city), too, and with remote work it is much easier these days to setup an international team in a German company located even in more obscure places. And it gives neighborhoods a chance to develop and rise from their obscurity.

Anybody reading this from the city of Neubrandenburg? ;) (I just learned about its existence a couple of years ago as a German native.)

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#432
post #389
post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does "fold" even mean? Real estate prices are not being artificially elevated, they are a simple function of supply and demand. Just build more houses and prices will do down, and they'll go down slowly, without collapsing. The typical model works like this: The suburbs around a city grow, the city runs out of space. This causes land in the suburbs to become expensive, so they subdivide lots and build more house…

> Real estate prices are not being artificially elevated Alas, they are. Supply and demand for housing is measured in units of currency, not people. Ask yourself, how many multiples of income can you borrow, with what kind of deposit? The ratio has shrunk over time, allowing roughly the same people to borrow steadily increasing amounts of money. What's worse is that (in some countries at least) common measures of inf…

The US does not include house purchase prices (the one-time capital cost), but does include actual rent or owner equivalent-rent (the ongoing/operating cost) in its measures of inflation.

This is entirely sensible consistent treatment, but often inadvertently or intentionally misunderstood.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#433
post #357

I'm in the highest percentiles of income in Sweden (public data is available) and it doesn't matter. It's basically impossible for me to afford a house / apartment for my family in the best neighborhoods. What's the point? What is the point of trying to be a high performer if wealth can't be acquired by income? Why would I want to work for anyone in this country? Only way out is equity and that game is even harder to…

This looks like a common pattern at other places too: you won't get "best-neighborhood" wealth from being first- (or sometimes even second-)generation high achiever. The root cause seems to be that there are usually more high achievers than properties in good neighborhoods, and old wealth erodes slowly (may take a generation or two), so there is very little pressure for old occupiers to sell their properties.

Why would anyone sell a property that continues to rise in value? Rent it out and vote against all construction, so it gets more valuable all the time.

Not even Covid and 100% Remote seems to have stopped the trend.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#434
The general form seems to be, if you were born after 1990, then you are entirely locked out of the asset class that drives wealth, which also happens to be a requirement for existence.

Nothing changes because the governments are largely composed of people for whom this does not apply.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#435
post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bingo. I moved to a lower tax country and my income almost doubled (no more 50% Swedish tax). Sweden is a bad deal high earners.

What country did you move to?

Probably Spain. You're destroying their property market, but at least you're on the winning side this time.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If eastern Germany is still affordable like that then it might be for a reason. Don't move there unless you pass as a German and speak the language.

>If eastern Germany is still affordable like that then it might be for a reason. I'm not German, but you can't complain there's no affordable housing when there actually is, but you just don't want it. Just because you only want to move only to a specific city you like, that has the "right vibe", where others also want to live, it's not society's fault you're too picky and you think you're too good for other more aff…

"I'm not German"

"Plenty of foreigners who don't "pass as German" live in East German cities just fine. "

Are you one among those non germans living in a eastern german city, or know some of them personally?

If no, how can you judge then?

I am german and I happen to live in eastern germany and I can attest there is a very high level of anti immigration sentiment and action.

There are some bubbles in the bigger cites, where you can get by without much trouble while only speaking english, but move out of that bubble and you actually have to fear for your live in some areas as a non white person. Ask my girlfried who is not really of color, but the little color her skin has because of latin american roots, is enough for hatred and threats towards her. Even in "hip" places like Dresden.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#437

It seems like it's the same story everywhere I look. Housing is the main driver of inequality and there is little change happening. We have the same problem here in Germany. I am currently living in Munich to finish my CS Master's at TUM and build a startup, and it is absolutely impossible to find anything remotely affordable. I am supported by two startup scholarships and make enough to get by, but no landlord even…

> It seems like it's the same story everywhere I look. Housing is the main driver of inequality and there is little change happening. It's a way of transferring money from younger adults to older adults, and older adults vote. It's basically an intergenerational pyramid scheme where each generation pays to the previous one, and each time they pay more. Of course, like any pyramid scheme, you can only keep it up so lo…

> It's a way of transferring money from younger adults to older adults, and older adults vote.

Always makes me wonder where these younger adults come from? Don't they have parents who invested their saving in a few apartments for rent? Can't they get some financial help from their parents?

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And it's not just Munich. Every city in Germany has this problem. That's nonsense. Larger Munich is the most expensive place to live in Germany (except for the island of Sylt), and has been for many years, but is still nowhere near London, NYC, or SF. In contrast, you can purchase entire houses in abandoned (but well connected) places in east Germany for as little as 10k EUR.

Why is the area around Dresden so affordable compared to others? I've seen ready to move in single family houses for 70k.

The wages in east germany are still quite a bit lower compared to west germany.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#439

It seems like it's the same story everywhere I look. Housing is the main driver of inequality and there is little change happening. We have the same problem here in Germany. I am currently living in Munich to finish my CS Master's at TUM and build a startup, and it is absolutely impossible to find anything remotely affordable. I am supported by two startup scholarships and make enough to get by, but no landlord even…

If you are able to work remotely, Spain is fantastic at the moment. Relatively low real estate rent/purchase prices. You can still get a nice 3 bedroom house with a pool under 200k by the Mediterranean sea (of course well, not in Marbella). There are some surprisingly high-tech jobs locally as well, the space industry is booming right now. Lots of programming jobs in Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia even if you don't s…

Anecdata, but the vast majority of European new hires I'm seeing in my team are from Spain (though they are Spanish) and work remotely from mid-sized cities or islands (like Mallorca). It feels like Central Europe is slowly losing steam while Spain is, unexpectedly, gaining some steam.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#440

It seems like it's the same story everywhere I look. Housing is the main driver of inequality and there is little change happening. We have the same problem here in Germany. I am currently living in Munich to finish my CS Master's at TUM and build a startup, and it is absolutely impossible to find anything remotely affordable. I am supported by two startup scholarships and make enough to get by, but no landlord even…

> How the hell are we ever supposed to build up some savings, settle down and have a comfortable life?

You're not. The system is working as intended, just not for us.

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