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What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

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Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#421

Post by gambiting »

kfarr wrote: post #202
kshacker wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can twist the supply demand imbalance only so much. Go farther than required for longer than required, and some cracks will eventually show up. Like they did for Silicon Valley bank. So it is hard to say when those cracks appear since the global market is quite a big market and can sustain imbalances for a long time, but then the bigger the bubble the bigger the crash. Foreigner limits, tax on no. Residents, star…

I think the difference here is fundamentally there is insufficient supply for the demand of housing globally, or at least US, UK and EU. The previous generation made new builds extremely difficult or impossible in many jurisdictions.

Well, EU isn't just one place. In Poland for instance building is very deregulated with very few cities having any kind of zones - basically if you can buy some land(and land is cheap) then you can build your own house. My own grandma built a house for herself to live in just before the pandemic - 120sqm of space, 2 beds 2 baths, with really large garden and construction+land+permits cost her a total of about $80k USD.

A friend of mine just got married, they bought a piece of land from the local council for about $20k USD and are looking at buying some house plans to start building this year.

From an outside perspective that seems to be a problem in many other countries - either the lack of land to build on(I can believe that in the UK but maybe not so much in US), or insane zoning laws that just straight up prohibit you from building something.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#422

Post by ricardobayes »

tannhaeuser wrote: post #345
watrami wrote: post #103

It seems like it's the same story everywhere I look. Housing is the main driver of inequality and there is little change happening. We have the same problem here in Germany. I am currently living in Munich to finish my CS Master's at TUM and build a startup, and it is absolutely impossible to find anything remotely affordable. I am supported by two startup scholarships and make enough to get by, but no landlord even…

> And it's not just Munich. Every city in Germany has this problem. That's nonsense. Larger Munich is the most expensive place to live in Germany (except for the island of Sylt), and has been for many years, but is still nowhere near London, NYC, or SF. In contrast, you can purchase entire houses in abandoned (but well connected) places in east Germany for as little as 10k EUR.

Why is the area around Dresden so affordable compared to others? I've seen ready to move in single family houses for 70k.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#423

Post by Al-Khwarizmi »

watrami wrote: post #103

It seems like it's the same story everywhere I look. Housing is the main driver of inequality and there is little change happening. We have the same problem here in Germany. I am currently living in Munich to finish my CS Master's at TUM and build a startup, and it is absolutely impossible to find anything remotely affordable. I am supported by two startup scholarships and make enough to get by, but no landlord even…

Same thing in Spain, compounded by the fact that not only the generation of people over 60 own the housing and receive the rents, but they actually make more from pensions than new workers make as a salary (the latter is, I think, not true in Germany).

This is a really toxic situation because it seems that for many young people, objectively speaking, career matters quite little. You can be unambitious, get a mediocre job, need your parents' help to survive and expect most of your wealth to eventually come from inheritance... or you can be ambitious and hard-working, get a better job, but still need your parents' help to survive (only somewhat less) and still expect most of your wealth to eventually come from inheritance.

It's a sad situation, and I say this as someone who is not that young anymore and owns an apartment, so it's not personal whining but genuine worry about where society is heading.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#424

Post by CalRobert »

slaw wrote: post #370
jjav wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If it doesn't collapse, then society may collapse? But there are plenty very cheap areas to buy houses or rent. Sure, many people don't want to live there, that's why it's cheap today. But it is a possibility nonetheless, one that is better than collapsing society. I'm always honestly confused why today it is seen as impossible to move to a cheap area? People have been doing this for generations (centuries?). It's…

Could you point me to these plenty cheap areas? I work remotely and may consider moving there.

You can get a house on a few acres (does need a little work but nothing crazy) in Tipperary for ~200k.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#425

Post by CalRobert »

ricardobayes wrote: post #403
slaw wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you point me to these plenty cheap areas? I work remotely and may consider moving there.

I like to browse the real estate market just for fun sometimes and actually yes there are cheap areas in every country. Some are cheap due to remoteness, due to inventory or mismanagement/decline. Like in mentioned in another comment, (south) Spain has incredibly cheap properties because there are many available and mortgages are available to even non-residents (not necessarily _in_ cities, but within a 30 min radius…

Something I learned too late is that sometimes a place is cheap because of horrible neighbours.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#426

Post by CalRobert »

EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK wrote: post #367
jjav wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If it doesn't collapse, then society may collapse? But there are plenty very cheap areas to buy houses or rent. Sure, many people don't want to live there, that's why it's cheap today. But it is a possibility nonetheless, one that is better than collapsing society. I'm always honestly confused why today it is seen as impossible to move to a cheap area? People have been doing this for generations (centuries?). It's…

What really attracts people to those places? Cuisine? Night life? Tinder opportunities?

I want my kids to be around a variety of perspectives. The groupthink and pressure to conform in rural areas and small towns can be extreme.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#427

Post by ricardobayes »

ClumsyPilot wrote: post #209
watrami wrote: post #103

It seems like it's the same story everywhere I look. Housing is the main driver of inequality and there is little change happening. We have the same problem here in Germany. I am currently living in Munich to finish my CS Master's at TUM and build a startup, and it is absolutely impossible to find anything remotely affordable. I am supported by two startup scholarships and make enough to get by, but no landlord even…

> still gets rejected either for her financial situation or because the rental contract is already set to increase 8% each year - which we simply cannot afford. And it's not just Munich. Every city in Germany has this problem. The logical step, when individuals cannot afford their own rent, companies that need workers will be providing housing to their workers. And they will be able to evict them whenever they feel l…

This case is different though, 75k is a very, very good salary in Germany so if they can't find rent with that then they are looking at the wrong properties. 75k is great but it won't buy luxury penthouses (same as everywhere else in the world.) If OP is telling me they can't find a normal 2 bed apartment in Munich on a 100k (assuming) income something is wrong in their search or their expectations.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#428

Post by Al-Khwarizmi »

ricardobayes wrote: post #396
watrami wrote: post #103

It seems like it's the same story everywhere I look. Housing is the main driver of inequality and there is little change happening. We have the same problem here in Germany. I am currently living in Munich to finish my CS Master's at TUM and build a startup, and it is absolutely impossible to find anything remotely affordable. I am supported by two startup scholarships and make enough to get by, but no landlord even…

If you are able to work remotely, Spain is fantastic at the moment. Relatively low real estate rent/purchase prices. You can still get a nice 3 bedroom house with a pool under 200k by the Mediterranean sea (of course well, not in Marbella). There are some surprisingly high-tech jobs locally as well, the space industry is booming right now. Lots of programming jobs in Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia even if you don't s…

> government and population are for the most part pretty grown-up and progressive. Universal base income, focus on equality etc...

This may well have an expiration date on May 28. Voting intention polls currently predict a shift to a right-wing majority (and this has been so for long), and the right in Spain is not moderate as in e.g. Germany. Although Pedro Sánchez has proven to be a tough nut to crack with a tendency to resurrect when everyone thinks him dead, so let's see what happens.

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#429

Post by hutzlibu »

erur wrote: post #263
watrami wrote: post #103

It seems like it's the same story everywhere I look. Housing is the main driver of inequality and there is little change happening. We have the same problem here in Germany. I am currently living in Munich to finish my CS Master's at TUM and build a startup, and it is absolutely impossible to find anything remotely affordable. I am supported by two startup scholarships and make enough to get by, but no landlord even…

It's definitely not every city in Germany that has this problem. You're trying to live in one of the objectively best parts of Germany by a lot of stats and thus you're competing with a lot of folks. I'm honestly sick of this whining about rent in top-tier areas. Living there is a luxury, given the major move to cities and scarcity, driven by insane regulations and basic logic. There are plenty of cities in Germany w…

"I'm honestly sick of this whining about rent in top-tier areas. Living there is a luxury"

Hm, I am quite sure, that even luxury areas need garbage people. If the top income people are having problems living there, how is that socially sustainable at all?

Or is the solution, that the peasants all have to commute 2h plus every day?

Re: What broke Sweden? Real estate bust exposes big divide

#430

Post by ricardobayes »

CalRobert wrote: post #425
ricardobayes wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I like to browse the real estate market just for fun sometimes and actually yes there are cheap areas in every country. Some are cheap due to remoteness, due to inventory or mismanagement/decline. Like in mentioned in another comment, (south) Spain has incredibly cheap properties because there are many available and mortgages are available to even non-residents (not necessarily _in_ cities, but within a 30 min radius…

Something I learned too late is that sometimes a place is cheap because of horrible neighbours.

That's not really a factor here as most of the housing stock is made up of holiday homes so you only have neighbors for like 2 weeks in a year. But with remote work many more are making it their homes so it might be a problem in the future.
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