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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#431

Post by systemvoltage »

Der_Einzige wrote: post #257
bushbaba wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s because the media leans democrat. But make no mistake Fox News, BBC, and other moderate or right leaning news sources will call this a recession. The news has for the most part has not called out Biden’s many missteps. Not even John Oliver is making fun of it.

Oh man if you think the BBC is even "moderate" than I have a bridge to sell you.

Yes, BBC isn't moderate just like NPR isn't moderate anymore. May be in the 20th century, BBC and NPR were neutral. But, that's clearly and indisputedly not true anymore. They're all left leaning.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#432

Post by pclmulqdq »

hedora wrote: post #324
phpisthebest wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are not mixed signals, the data we use for signaling is flawed for the modern area Take for example the U-3 unemployment number that you cite, what is missing from that is Workforce Participation, we have a pretty large drop-off in Work force participation which is leading to the false belief that employment is "fine", and the quote "mix signal" of being in a recession while still having lower unemployment. Comp…

A reasonable definition of recession is "you can't find a job", but, not only are we in the middle of a labor shortage, traditional good-economic-times like unionization are ramping up, and people are successfully demanding raises (and some households are voluntarily moving to single incomes). On the other hand, the stock market is down this year, so if that's your definition, things are dire. Honestly, this seems li…

That is actually a really poor definition of a recession. It overlooks many macroeconomic factors that can cause severe problems. "I can't improve my economic position" seems a lot closer, while still being a bad definition, and by that definition, we are deep in a recession.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#433

Post by pclmulqdq »

babypuncher wrote: post #379
bushbaba wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Falling demand of non-necessities. People aren't buying "TVs". Which as you call out, is a stupidly strong recessionary signal.

But demand for services and "experiences" is way up. I think it's unrealistic to expect retail goods to maintain the same highs they had during the pandemic. For a big chunk of the last two years, people couldn't go to concerts, bars and restaurants operated at limited capacity, vacation destinations had travel restrictions in place, etc. This lead people to take the discretionary income they would normally spend on…

The evidence does not suggest that demand for services and experiences is up. Demand for durable goods spiked when COVID checks went out, then returned to parity with demand for services and non-durable goods. According to the fed, both of those have dropped over the last two years.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#434

Post by s1artibartfast »

mywittyname wrote: post #262
partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

I agree that we are in a recession. >How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong enou…

>Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low.

The data isn't mixed, people are just making an incorrect association.

Working more or longer isn't a good thing in its own right. In fact, it is bad it you are working more for less purchasing power.

employment growth has historically been associated with increased purchasing power, but the current situation is a deviation from this norm.

Talking about employment growth ignoring this fact is a bit of a bait and switch playing on this incorrect association.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#435

Post by pclmulqdq »

babypuncher wrote: post #382
partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

I think most of the recession talk is trying to drum up fears of 2007-2009. If we are in a recession, it's a pretty mild one. But that won't stop people from pretending that the sky is falling in order to motivate voters.

Welcome to the average recession. They usually aren't that bad for people outside of a certain small sector that gets hit hard. This time it was the crypto bros.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#436

Post by InefficientRed »

whatshisface wrote: post #421
InefficientRed wrote: post #417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fast food is pricing itself out of the market. I think it's a great example of a sector that failed to innovate and is now incapable of providing a product worth buying at prices that are profitable. McDonalds et al. probably should've been investing a lot more in automating their kitchens. The fact that a huge percent of locations -- and all drive-thrus -- still use humans for the ordering process is, similarly, ine…

If McDonalds can't afford to pay a living wage at the local cost of living, nobody will immigrate to work for them.

You can fit 3 generations in a single family home in an American suburb of a mid-sized city, and half the world's population would either (a) consider that a QoL improvement or at least (b) put up with it for a while to remit back home.

For all the doom and gloom in the USA, it's still an incredibly rich country.

To be clear: I'm not making a moral statement here. This is a statement of fact, not a statement of ethical preference.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#437

Post by colinmhayes »

rabuse wrote: post #305
teolandon wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1984 does not apply here in any way shape or form.

Rewriting definitions to fit a narrative, in my mind, is very applicable.

Good thing no one is rewriting definitions. “Recession” has no agreed upon definition, the federal government relies on the NBER to officially tell us if we’re in a recession. They haven’t said so yet.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#438

Post by missedthecue »

jeffbee wrote: post #138
causi wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$11.5 billion in profits on $103.06 billion in revenue is a profit margin of less than nine percent. That doesn't seem all that unreasonable to me.

Oil is the textbook commodity and the expected profit margin on commodities is ~zero. That's the nature of a commodity: a good so interchangeable, with so many competing producers, that the profit margins are inevitably minimized.

Not all commodities are equally recoverable at similar costs though, and in a world where we need more oil/copper/iron than can come out of the cheapest mine, there will be profit

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#439

Post by tootie »

weakfish wrote: post #195
NeverFade wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US, the NBER is the institution that calls recessions. The NBER has never once failed to call two consecutive quarters of negative growth as a recession. It's a foregone conclusion at this point. But wait, according to the mainstream media now, we shouldn't listen to the NBER either, they're all just a bunch of "white economists": https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/30/economy/recession-economists-...

I mean, CNN is basically the left version of Fox News, it’s not representative of center media.

That's not really a fair comparison. CNN sometimes plays up controversy for eyeballs, but Fox is an outright manipulator. Tucker Carlson is touting fascism and Sean Hannity was literally taking phone calls from the Oval Office asking what they wanted him to say on air. They are also being sued for libel for promoting baseless election fraud conspiracy theories. Saying they're equivalent is like saying a pigeon is like a squid because they both have a beak.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jul/04/fox-oan-newsma... https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/29/politics/hannity-text-message... https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/tucker-carlson-has-s...

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#440

Post by paisawalla »

corrral wrote: post #425
paisawalla wrote: post #413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am asking you to define "good effect" precisely because it seems to be subject to the kind of cherry picking you don't like. I'm a median to upper-middle American, and I get great value from my healthcare. It's not obvious to me that a system that raises the experience for mean, or even the bottom end, of the distribution would be a good thing for me in many respects: emergency wait time, access to top percentile s…

> It's not obvious to me that a system that raises the experience for mean, or even the bottom end, of the distribution would be a good thing for me in many respects Ah—I usually assume the Rawlsian "Veil of Ignorance" POV when it comes public policy issues, personally, as I think is fairly common. Sure, if that's your perspective, literally nothing matters except how a policy affects you, personally, right now, so m…

Do you have anything other than unearned moral condescension? It is not my experience that clicking your tongue at people and badgering them to prioritize the collective over their own individual health outcomes in a healthcare policy is compelling.

So why would I engage? Because you seem to be advocating policies that would directly (and potentially negatively) affect my health outcomes, and your justification is "but you're just a statistic".

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