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Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

home.treasury.gov

431–440 of 697 posts

Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Ultimately cryptocurrencies are a negative-sum game in that they take in real money and just move that money around, while spending some on overhead. In contrast, imagine investing in, say, a new fast-food franchise joint. They money you put in there is used to acquire assets that are used to produce goods that people will pay to consume. If it's a well-run business, the value of the outputs will be more tha…

> imagine investing in, say, a new fast-food franchise joint Let us imagine instead that you want to invest in Burger King. You buy some shares in Restaurant Brands International (QSR). When you own those shares, what does that actually mean - how is that connected to the purchase of burgers? I think share ownership is often a better metaphor for many cryptocurrencies than fiat currency. Especially when considering s…

The value of a share typically comes from the productive assets the company owns. If you buy all 468 million shares of QSR, you get all the restaurants, the brands, the vendor relationships, the employee relationships, the customer relationships. If you have a smaller fraction, you have a smaller fraction of that, plus you are entitled to a share of the profits generated.

But if you buy a Bitcoin, you own no productive asset and therefore are entitled to no profits. At one point the theory was you could trade it for something useful, like other currencies. But it's a pretty bad currency, so people mostly have stopped pretending it is useful for that.

There are answers to the rest of your questions, which are complicated and depend on exchange and jurisdiction, but people can look up the details if they want.

Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#432

> Conversely, mass adoption of a well-regulated and supervised stablecoin with strong AML/CFT protections built into the stablecoin could provide greater transparency into illicit financial activity and could mitigate ML/TF risks, especially if the stablecoin takes market share away from riskier alternatives. Interesting. The blockchain is public, so they see benefit in being able to audit it.

hn is beginning to understand

Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#433
post #420
post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After that hedge fund issued a $1M reward on Tether backing I did some more investigation and the thing I realized is that 1) Tether is inherently backed by BS and 2) crafting any sort of Tether short is near impossible because everyone in the game - Tether, the exchanges, etc. - will all be against you if you're winning in the short. There's that scene in "The Big Short" where Mark Baum and crew know the subprime bo…

I’ve been shorting a few bitcoin-related public companies on the theory that in a run on Tether they will have to liquidate large bitcoin holdings and bring down the rest of the market. It’s not as direct, but I’m less worried about counterparty risk. I wrote up my thesis here: https://paulbutler.org/2021/betting-against-bitcoin/

Very interesting read, and it's refreshing to read some contrary opinions on the topic.

Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#434
post #420
post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After that hedge fund issued a $1M reward on Tether backing I did some more investigation and the thing I realized is that 1) Tether is inherently backed by BS and 2) crafting any sort of Tether short is near impossible because everyone in the game - Tether, the exchanges, etc. - will all be against you if you're winning in the short. There's that scene in "The Big Short" where Mark Baum and crew know the subprime bo…

I’ve been shorting a few bitcoin-related public companies on the theory that in a run on Tether they will have to liquidate large bitcoin holdings and bring down the rest of the market. It’s not as direct, but I’m less worried about counterparty risk. I wrote up my thesis here: https://paulbutler.org/2021/betting-against-bitcoin/

>I’ve been shorting a few bitcoin-related public companies on the theory that in a run on Tether they will have to liquidate large bitcoin holdings

I doubt a run on tether would even cause a 50% drop in BTC price. Hope your account doesn't blow up when Bitcoin inevitably reaches 1 million per coin ;)

Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#435
post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's similar gold, yes. Gold is an unproductive asset. You are correct that there is base demand for it in the form of jewelry and electronics. In fact, a percentage of the world's gold output goes into making Bitcoin miners each year. However, its value is not supported by its demand in these industries. This is why I personally do not invest in gold. The difference is that if you shut down gold mining, existing gol…

> If you shut down Bitcoin mining it's immediately worth nothing. Except that it is impossible ever shut down Bitcoin mining at once( ). It might be more similar to gold than what you think. There are too many incentives to keep it up. The holders want value to be kept, the miners have vested interest in the system to continue to work. If you shut down, say, half the miners, this will create opportunity to other mine…

This is like arguing that the Beanie Baby market will never die. It's precisely the belief that the bubble will be eternal that helps inflate the bubble.

For those unfamiliar, Beanie Babies were a collectible toy that had a multi-year fad in the 1990s, with 5-dollar toys trading for thousands: https://www.ft.com/content/1563d643-332f-3887-8c6e-caf7435f3...

It's true that the Beanie Baby market never totally went away. And I'm sure that some die-hards will keep Bitcoin going for decades after it ceases to be practically relevant. But however much the bubble incentives keep major players aligned during the bubble, that doesn't mean the prices will stay up forever.

Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#436
post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Crypto continues to help nobody and achieve nothing in the real world Crypto posts on HN seem to be a hotbed for these sorts of hyperbolic, wholly unsubstantiated and objectively false comments. I wish i understood what the motivation was for these sorts of replies.

Please show me a real world use case that's better than the status quo and is not speculation or gambling. It's been over 12 years and I'm still looking. Cryptoclowns can't use the it's too early excuse anymore. But they choose to listen to a handful of man children running around promising world peace via a distributed database.

Easy: bypassing financial censorship. Hint: try buying a 4chan pass without cryptocurrency.

Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#437
post #269
post #47

This is good. The backing of stablecoins is a very real issue. As the Treasury points out, there's a very real possibility of a run. Two stablecoins have crashed so far, SafeDollar SDO, and $TITAN. They went all the way to zero. Can Tether survive a net outflow? Probably not. They don't have the collateral. Dai is really a derivative of Etherium. Dai is backed by Etherium at 150%. So value in Dai is at risk if the pr…

For some time now DAI has been backed by a basket of coins precisely to mitigate the risk of one coin dropping.

But many coins seem to move in concert (just based on casual observation). Additionally diversifying in traditional equities has the benefit of being exposed to multiple industries - lets say farms and chip manufacturers - that don't depend on the same commodities as inputs and don't sell products into the same markets. Crypto doesn't have this property - besides requiring an input of energy, they're not involved in any kind of production at all. So what does diversifying even mean for that kind of asset? In a recession, why would there be any reason to think that ETH would behave differently than BTC?

Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#438
post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can Tether survive a net outflow? Probably not. They don't have the collateral. Luckily for Paolo & friends, their terms of service clearly state that they do not ever have to offer redemptions of USDT for dollars. Or even whatever IOUs and bits of string they may or may not have in reserve. Out of all the stable coins its the most likely to withstand a "run" because they do not have to pay you if you ask. In fact…

After that hedge fund issued a $1M reward on Tether backing I did some more investigation and the thing I realized is that 1) Tether is inherently backed by BS and 2) crafting any sort of Tether short is near impossible because everyone in the game - Tether, the exchanges, etc. - will all be against you if you're winning in the short. There's that scene in "The Big Short" where Mark Baum and crew know the subprime bo…

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28792735

Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#439
post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not quite correct, although I understand your sentiment. When you own a share of Square (or Visa, or PayPal) each time a transaction takes place on their network, a portion of that transaction (revenue minus costs) accrues to the company - and by extension increases the intrinsic value of your share. The transaction revenue is spent on furniture, on R&D, on employees and on buffing up their cash position. As a…

As a holder of crypto, you are both a customer and an owner. You pay a fee for each transaction you send, just like any other service. b However, your holdings increase in value the more other people use the same chain because the value of the entire ecosystem needs to scale proportionally to the value people are attempting to transact across it. Financial systems, like social networks, and most businesses coming out…

> USD has been the default option for the world, and enforced through violence when people attempt to create their own networks of trade.

Hah! Of course, who can forget how US paratroopers abruptly ended the attempted creation of the Euro shortly before its intended launch in 1999. Or the way the US Seventh Fleet blockaded China's commercial ports starting in 2002, preventing their rise as a commercial power. We can only wonder what a world with multilateral economic power might look like.

Re: Report on Stablecoins [pdf]

#440

When people defend cryptocurrencies online, sometimes it's because they're invested in it and they're hoping to get rich. (Only a real Sherlock Holmes could notice something this subtle. I eagerly await my upvotes!!)

And many of the people who show up to hate on cryptocurrencies participate in what amount to support groups for people who had the opportunity to buy but didn't.
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